Convective season.
Is coming.
Graphics.
Thunderstorm tracking.
Live radar updates.
Let's hope it's more active than last year!
04.03.2026 16:07
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Convective season.
Is coming.
Graphics.
Thunderstorm tracking.
Live radar updates.
Let's hope it's more active than last year!
Have applied for an apprenticeship at the Met Office!
Didn’t get an interview for the last position I applied for sadly (to join the service desk) so perhaps this will be a way in!
In fairness I lacked the IT experience for that role, though had hoped my willingness to learn would be enough 😂
This shows the predicted 2M temperatures for London.
A marked decline as we go through the rest of January but there’s a bi-modal split in the extended between very cold (ice days) and something less cold.
Much of this is dependent on the alignment of high & low pressure 📈📉
Shannon entropy is high.
Huge spread in the extended with a few very cold ensembles beginning to appear.
Equally quite a few less cold solutions still evident too.
I don’t blame you!
I do miss seeing your posts.
No plans to at the moment
Yeah must admit I dropped off on posting here!
Mainly because longer tweets are far easier, when I wrote those coming here and breaking it down into a thread is somewhat annoying!
Unfortunately nobody else has really switched over, the majority still remain on that platform.
The brain drain is certainly obvious though, scientists etc very much made the switch, sadly weather enthusiasts did not.
Given the possibility of X being banned I’ve decided to become more active on here.
- Weather updates
- Model commentary
- Long range thoughts
Potential for a return it cold weather beyond the 22nd January.
The 06z GFS showing what *could* happen if things align correctly.
Bitterly cold easterly wind, streamers & heavy snowfall and a completely cut off Griceland high.
Cold weather would be locked in.
A more extreme run, I’d imagine.
The Atlantic low pressure conveyor belt is in full swing for the next 2 weeks.
Low after low pushing in towards the UK bringing potentially 100-400mm of rainfall across western hills.
Very, very wet.
It is December, right?
Much of the Northern Hemisphere continues to be significantly above average.
El Niño next year is almost certainly going to set new global temperature records 📈
This is a good outlook for people who pay their own heating bills.
Average or mild for the foreseeable with no sign of anything particularly cold 📈
Potentially a very wet outlook.
I really hope the Met Office see some sense and scrap this new app.
The design remains awful, completely lacking in data and.. worse still, this is what the warnings look like. How are you supposed to see which warning is which?
Just awful.
A somewhat unfortunate drawing of the lines there..
🚨 Locally severe weather possible tomorrow.
An easterly flow within the broader area of rainfall will intensify rainfall along eastern Welsh hills via orographic lift leading to a lot of water flowing into rivers downhill.
Totals of >100mm possible locally.
Potentially quite a significant rain event shaping up for Friday.
A waving weather front could bring locally very high totals across the hills of Wales for example with totals likely exceeding 100mm and widely 30-50mm across central England.
Would expect Met Office warnings ⚠️
Absolute textbook example of anti-cyclonic wave breaking in the next few days leading to a cut off area of high pressure over Greenland.
a Rossby wave packet for early December (signal for renewed blocking)
With the MJO continuing east and the likelihood of further +ve AAM in the context of a weak sPV, blocking regimes are far more likely through December vs the usual zonal weather patterns.
The strong +EAMT event led to a Pacific Jet extension generating a Rossby Wave packet (next weeks block) this will relax and we’re now seeing a Pacific jet retraction (signal for the block to drift west), another +EAMT will generate another Pacific jet extension generating..
Cold December?
MJO eastwards propagation and the associated +ve AAM tendency has driven a Pac Jet extension resulting in Atlantic / Greenland blocking next week.
This block will likely relax by the 26th/27th with a brief Atlantic interlude before further blocking develops into December.
❄️❄️
Cold and potentially wintry weather arrives next week so naturally I've been dusting off and tweaking the snow graphics.
This is an example, but probably also does well to highlight the broader snow risks next week.
Potential for some locally high rainfall totals across Wales in the coming days as a frontal wave pushes in.
Localised flooding / swollen rivers a possibility.
(The WxCharts redesign is very nice)
Unpopular opinion: Using the word "uppers" to describe 85hPa temperatures doesn't make any sense.
We’ve built our own Snow Tracker. Bookmark it now and report your snowfall this winter. Learn more below 👇 blog.snowwatch.org/pr/from-flak...
Modelling is certainly struggling at the moment, today’s EC46 comes tantalisingly close to a minor reversal!
The overnight ECM manages to find the cold.. ❄️
Still too far off to be chasing any cold with little support but does show that cold / snow is possible at the time of year we’re keeping an eye on.
Following up with this - Todays EC46 has slightly trended away from the idea.
Beautiful example of a Rex Block on the GFS today.
Thank you really informative! Hadn’t realised models were overconfident in the Pacific Trough regime!
