Advanced Football Stats

Updated Drive and Turnover Efficiency going into week 15 of the #NFL season!

Projected Standings going into Week 15 of the #NFL season!

Power Rankings going into Week 15 of the #NFL season.

Projected season wins and standings going into Week 14

Week 14 Power Rankings

Overall drive efficiency and turnover propensity going into week 14

Going into Week 14 here is how our simulations are doing against the money line, spread, and over/under #NFL

@colts.bsky.social very unlikely to win, but a win is hugely important to their post-season hopes - worth keeping an eye on that game/line.

Working on some game leverage numbers to add to our #NFL drive efficiency models.

See if we can get any model lift by accounting for "game importance". Still a bit to go and a lot of context, but some standouts in this next week for teams who have a lot on the line!

Heres where we have them - this assumes a matchup against a median opponent 10,000 times.

Projected wins for each #NFL team going into Week 12! This uses each team's current ability and simulates the remainder of their season 10,00 times.

Here are our Week 12 #NFL power rankings. These use our drive efficiency metrics and simulate 10,000 games between each team and a median opponent to create a win rate against that opponent.

Here are our overall drive efficiency and overall turnover propensity models going into week 12 of the #NFL season!