@elisabethbraw
Atlantic Council, Foreign Policy, Politico Europe. Author of the upcoming The Undersea War (John Murray & Basic Books this October). Geopolitics & globalisation/greyzone aggression/total defence/societal resilience. Own views
Some 20,000 seafarers are stuck on vessels waiting to pass the Strait of Hormuz.
The new US insurance plan for the Strait is unlikely to get traffic moving, because it's the risk of attacks that's holding ships back.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/h... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)
The Iran war is already affecting shipping - and thus Europe.
Both us European shipowners and us Europeans as recipients of cargo now stuck in the Persian Gulf.
www.politico.eu/article/midd... Me @politico.eu. No paywall.
It has to do with UNCLOS. It was straightforward to board this vessel as it was in territorial waters.
Vessels are stacked up, waiting, on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.
Going through is so dangerous that underwriters have in effect cancelled transits.
This will have knock-on effects on global shipping & the global economy.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/03/i... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)
A hostile state is planning an attack on the Nordic countries' energy infrastructure, Swedish media report.
The threats against our countries are real.
(And it's a good thing Sweden has established an electricity-repair crew reserve, www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...)
Coming out this October:
www.thebookseller.com/rights/basic...
The US tech giants use a lot of subsea cable connectivity - and these days, they're major cable owners (including sole owners).
What would happen if they, for whatever reason, decided to suspend connectivity to Europe?
www.politico.eu/article/us-t...
(Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
Indeed. There still is no such system. People have tried, but...
The UK has a formidable Strategic Reserve of ex-regulars - in theory.
In reality, it doesn't know how to reach many of them. That's a massive loss - and an opportunity to make amends, because we need these qualified men and women (I write in today's @thetimes.com)
www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...
Five Norwegians in public life have caused their country damage through their association with Epstein.
That's a pity, because especially in a world with a world with growing conflicts, Norway (with its diplomatic prowess) is indispensable.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/20/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)
The Baltic Sea nations have launched a plethora of collaborative initiatives - from patrolling to AI - to look after their shared mini-ocean.
Such regional collaboration may be the future of NATO.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... (Me @theguardian.com. No paywall)
Russia is mercilessly bombing Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
Sweden is wisely planning ahead - by launching an electricity-repair reservist corps.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol... (Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.)
'This is so big I can't believe I'm part of it': at lightning speed, Sweden has conceived and launched an electricity-repair crew reserve.
I had the privilege of writing about this extremely impressive undertaking for @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.
www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...
The arms race on the seabed: the US is moving ahead with deep-sea mining in international waters (outside UNCLOS and thus outside internationally approved licences).
@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats Initiative's latest report (by yours truly): www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res....
Before Greenland, there was the International Maritime Organization.
Last year, the IMO's members were about to pass a pioneering greenhouse-gas reduction treaty.
Then the United States deployed its new style of diplomacy.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/t.... Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.
Consumers around the world are boycotting US brands. There's even a Danish app that allows users to check US links.
That's clearly bad news for US companies (I write on today's @financialtimes.com).
www.ft.com/content/3276...
(Yes, that's a picture of the Berlin Wall. Feel free to guess why!)
What would Ireland be without its fishermen? They:
- stopped a Russian Navy exercise in Irish waters when the government failed to
- alert the authorities to suspicious activities around undersea infrastructure.
www.politico.eu/article/fish...
(Me @politico.eu)
Denmark is a quiet but substantial cog in the global economy - including the US economy.
A rare piece of good news: Irish fishermen and national security.
In 2022, they gained global fame after defying the Russian Navy. And around the year, they keep a vigilant eye on Ireland's undersea cables.
Total defence in action.
www.politico.eu/article/fish... (Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)
Sweden may be NATO's newest member, but it's certainly proving to be an indispensable one.
It has sent soldiers to Greenland.
Last year, it sent a battalion to Latvia.
Etc etc.
Now it's sending a Gripen to Iceland.
www.forsvarsmakten.se/sv/aktuellt/... (picture from 2024)
This is indeed the problem.
Especially considering Estonia's status as the world's most digital nation.
When Goodbye Globalization came out two years ago, some said I overestimated deglobalization.
Turns out I underestimated it.
For a year, the bottom of the Baltic Sea was overwhelmingly quiet.
Then, within a few days, six cables were damaged or even cut.
But the world was watching Washington, Venezuela and Greenland.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/01/16/b... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.)
German prosecutors have charged two men accused of trying to get parcel bombs onto airliners on behalf of Russia.
“Such parcels were to be ignited [...], causing as much damage as possible,” the prosecutor said in a statement.
Russia is not letting up.
www.ft.com/content/0088...
Germany's Federal Prosecutor has charged two Ukrainians with (1) working for a foreign intelligence service [i.e. GRU], (2) preparing acts of sabotage, and (3) planning a heavy arson attack
www.generalbundesanwalt.de/SharedDocs/P...
While we're all watching Venezuela and Greenland:
In late December there was a massive attack on Poland's energy infrastructure - an attempt to cause a blackout in the middle of the winter.
And it turns out - Russia was behind it.
Greyzone aggression in action, again.
tvpworld.com/91021372/pol...
What a week (already) on the world's oceans.
I haven't written anything - because I'm finishing Undersea War. And what a week to finish it.
(Bonus points for anyone who can guess the incident in the picture.)
Another cable break, this time in Latvian waters.
Let's await the findings from the investigation.
In the meantime, here's a picture of the Newnew Polar Bear, whose master is on trial over the Balticconnector incident.
On the last day of the year, another cable damaged in the Gulf of Finland.
The Finnish Border Guard reports that a ship has been taken into custody.
The incident is not good news. The Finnish response is.
We've not seen the last of these suspicious cable cuts.
