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11.03.2026 16:04
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Cincinnati #Reds Preview - 2026 Opening Day Countdown
I assume it’s because of the mercy rules, as you can’t exactly rack up the runs to make sure you win tiebreakers.
*If Mexico scores exactly 5 runs in their win vs Italy, then the next tiebreaker is earned runs per IP; in that case, since USA allowed 3 UER vs Italy, USA would need at least 2 of the 5 runs be earned. If it's exactly 2 ER & 3 UER, then it goes by batting average.
If Mexico beats Italy tomorrow, then:
🇺🇸 11 RA in 18 IP
🇮🇹 6 RA in 18 IP (incl. IP vs MEX)
🇲🇽 5 RA in 17 IP (incl. IP vs ITA)
USA advances if MEX scores 5 R or more*
ITA advances if ITA scores 6 R or more OR MEX scores 4 R or less
MEX advances if ITA scores 5 R or less OR MEX scores 5 R or more
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SUMMARY:
KOR advances if:
• KOR beats AUS by 5 or more AND
• AUS scores 2 or less
AUS advances if:
• KOR beats AUS by 4 or less AND
• KOR scores 7 or less*
TWN advances if:
• KOR scores 8 or more AND
• AUS scores 3 or more
*If KOR scores 7, all are earned, and AUS bats below .088, TWN advances.
Taiwan went 3-31 vs Australia, and 7-34 vs Korea, which in total is 10-65 (.154). Australia went 7-31 vs Taiwan, so they’ll have to go 3-34 (.088) or better vs Korea to advance. Since Australia would have to score 3+ runs vs Korea to force this tiebreaker, I’d say beating 3-34 is extremely likely.
It’s more likely they won’t though, so instead it’ll be between just Australia and Taiwan. In that case, the results of the KOR-AUS game matters: if any of the 7 runs are unearned, then Australia advances. Otherwise, it goes to the next tiebreaker, which is team batting average vs tied teams.
I assume they won’t, but if they do then Korea has an edge. They’re the only team that has allowed an unearned run — the ghost runner from Taiwan in extras — so they only have 4 ER. So theoretically, if they do advance to the next tiebreaker, a 7-3 win would still help them advance.
If Korea scores exactly 7 runs and allows more than 2, then Australia and Taiwan will still be tied. In that scenario it goes to the next tiebreaker, which is the same as the previous but only counts earned runs. It’s unclear if Korea would move on to this one, as it’s not specified unlike others.
If Korea scores less than 7 runs, then the game has to end 6-0, 6-1, or 5-0 for Korea to advance. Otherwise, Australia advances.
If they score more than 7 runs, but they also allow more than 2 runs, then Australia and Korea’s RA will both be at least 8, and Taiwan advances.
Since Korea has an extra inning pitched from the extra innings game vs Taiwan, that can essentially be seen as its own tiebreaker which allows Korea to advance.
For Korea to win the tiebreaker, they’ll need the lowest amount of runs allowed to advance. For that to happen, they need to win by at least 5 runs while allowing no more than 2 vs Australia. If AUS-KOR ended exactly 7-2, then it would look like this:
🇦🇺 7 RA in 18 IP
🇹🇼 7 RA in 18 IP
🇰🇷 7 RA in 19 IP
The total results so far are as follows:
🇦🇺 0 RA in 9 IP
🇹🇼 7 RA in 18 IP
🇰🇷 5 RA in 10 IP
Since Australia is the home team vs Korea and we need Korea to win for the tiebreaker to happen, we add 9 IP to AUS & KOR:
🇦🇺 0 RA in 18 IP
🇹🇼 7 RA in 18 IP
🇰🇷 5 RA in 19 IP
In other words, it’s runs allowed divided by outs recorded (or IP, which is just Outs/3) in games between the tied teams. So, only the results of AUS-TWN, TWN-KOR, and KOR-AUS matter. Those results are as follows:
AUS-TWN
🇦🇺 0 RA in 9 IP
🇹🇼 3 RA in 8 IP
TWN-KOR
🇹🇼 4 RA in 10 IP
🇰🇷 5 RA in 10 IP
The second tiebreaker is as follows:
The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to the lowest quotient of fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in the games in that round between the teams tied.
In the above scenario, Japan would advance with the first seed, and Australia, Korea, and Taiwan would all be tied 2-2 for 2nd place. The first tiebreaker is head to head, but since Australia beat Taiwan, Taiwan beat Korea, and Korea would have to beat Australia, it goes on to the 2nd tiebreaker.
🧵 With Taiwan beating Korea and Australia set to face Japan in a couple hours, the only way for Korea to advance is to hope for Japan to beat Australia, then to later beat Australia themselves, which would force a 3-way tie. Here’s a breakdown of the tiebreaker, and what each team needs to advance:
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Thank you!
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According to Prospects Live, the Braves have a ton of prospects in that range; 12 with a 45 OFP and 12 with a 40 OFP. The Twins could take their pick on who they like the most, but if it were up to me I’d either take SS Alex Lodise, OF Owen Carey, or a package of IF Cody Miller & RP Hayden Harris.
Trevor Larnach could be the easiest to move, and would fit the role well (110 wRC+, 104 bFIP+ vs RHP in 2025, 112 wRC+ vs RHP in his career). I’d say he’s worth $5-10M in surplus value, so his cost would be either one 45-grade prospect or two 40-grade prospects in terms of overall future potential.
🧵 With the Profar news, the #Braves are gonna need another bat, ideally one that’s good vs RHP so they can platoon him with Sean Murphy at DH. The Twins have a ton of outfielders on their depth chart (with top prospects Walker Jenkins & Emmanuel Rodriguez on the way) & could move one for prospects.
I may be wrong but I believe the player doesn’t get paid while they’re suspended for PEDs, doesn’t count towards the luxury tax either.
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