Josef Davies-Coates

The fate of fossil fuel systems in the Podcast Episode · Volts · March 4 · 1h 15m

The @volts.wtf podcast is one of my nerdy favorites and I found this ep to be particularly fascinating. “Maybe we should plan for this instead of just winging it?”

How an electric bike can protect your money as another oil shock hits Over $100 per barrel and rising, the oil shock of 2026 in its early days could still surpass the levels

How an electric bike can protect your money as another oil shock hits.

The argument for fossil fuels is ending, but so too is the argument for relying on cars for journeys of under five miles.

Here's some numbers to convince:

www.cyclingelectric.com/in-depth/how...

Last week, we delivered our open letter at Westminster.
Community energy is one of the fairest ways to deliver the clean energy transition.

We welcome the ambition. Now Government must follow through on their plans and #UpTheEnergy!

@commenergyengland.bsky.social @thriverenewables.bsky.social

It’s time to #UpTheEnergy on community power 📣

Proud to sponsor @commenergyengland.bsky.social's campaign aiming to accelerate the rollout of community energy projects that put people at the heart of the energy transition 👇
@uptheenergyuk.bsky.social @briznrgcoop.bsky.social

Thank you to Community Energy England and all of the partners and signatories backing this campaign
Together we can #uptheenergy!

The latest BHESCo newsletter is here.

Could be the most uplifting 2 minutes of your day…

us6.campaign-archive.com?u=2e4bb1d92c...

#CommunityEnergy #Renewables #NetZero #ClimateAction

Hi @isoutar.bsky.social two more for your #CommunityEnergy Starter Pack go.bsky.app/LpqEmbM :

1. @briznrgcoop.bsky.social
2. @aldouse.bsky.social

(Aldous: you should give yourself a description 😉 )

Reaching net zero by 2050 ‘cheaper for UK than one fossil fuel crisis’ Climate change committee finds move to renewable energy would also bring health, economic and security benefits

Our dependency on fossil fuels makes us vulnerable. Wars across the world are pushing up prices for households in the UK.

Why keep waiting for the next crisis? We need to transition to clean power as fast as we can to protect people and our economy.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

👉️ St John's Market Progress! 👈️

Our project team have been busy over the past few months in #scunthorpe with @joju solar and @North Lincolnshire Council as we fit #communityowned solar down on the market!

#Communityenergy #Communitybenefitsociety #renewableenergy #northlincolnshire #lincolnshire

Celebrating the many brilliant women we meet and work with on #communityenergy !

#internationalwomensday

Thank you @bigsolarcoop.bsky.social for the photo from the away-day last year 🙂

☀️ Happy International Women's Day 2026! ☀️

NLCE would like to celebrate all the women in #communityenergy who make a positive difference to a #sustainable and #renewableenergy future 💌

#communitybuildings #northlincolnshire #communityenergy #netzero #communitybenefitsociety #communityownership

London energy co-op Selce looks to raise £39k for school lighting efficiency project

#coops #communityenergy #climate

@seloncommenergy.bsky.social

www.thenews.coop/london-energ...

Today we handed in our open letter with a simple message:
UP THE ENERGY on COMMUNITY POWER.
A new energy system is already taking shape - cleaner, fairer and powered by communities. The ambition is there. Now let’s unlock it by turning plans into power.
communityenergyengland.org/up-the-energ...

Great to have Hannah Spencer Green MP join us in Westminster backing the call to Up The Energy on community power. Across the UK 600+ community energy organisations are already generating clean power, cutting bills and reinvesting locally. Now we need to remove the barriers and unlock the potential!

An excellent Future Energy Landscapes workshop in Dymock last night! Great engagement, good discussion, and lots of local knowledge in the room. #communityenergy

Very timely to be happening on the same day as the launch of #uptheenergy in Westminster!

With @cse.org.uk

Great to have joined @commenergyengland.bsky.social for the launch of its #UpTheEnergy campaign yesterday which we're proud to sponsor.

We're calling for the acceleration of #communityenergy as part of a cleaner, fairer energy system that puts people at the heart. 

@uptheenergyuk.bsky.social

East Lothian Greens have signed the #UpTheEnergy open letter calling on the UK Government and GB Energy to unlock and enable more community-owned energy.

You can add your support here: actionnetwork.org/forms/open-l...

In East Lothian and across Scotland there is so much potential for renewables, but communities aren't getting enough of the benefit. We need action to ensure that every community can share in the benefits of clean, affordable energy. #UpTheEnergy

Annual mean temperature anomaly from 1940 to present with three milestone crossings annotated. A dashed projection line suggests 2.0C could be reached around 2038 if the current pace continues.

9/ A sanity check, forget the lag model entirely.
The annual mean took 30 years to go from 0.5°C to 1.0°C, and 14 years to go from 1.0°C to 1.5°C.

If the next 0.5°C takes the same 14 years, we reach 2.0°C around 2038.

Not 2050.

Are we prepared for that?

8/
Caveats:

ERA5 starts 1940, early lags may be underestimated

2023 breach was likely El Niño driven

Exponential extrapolation has no physical floor
Other datasets may differ

Code on request. If anyone can see a methodological flaw in this approach, I'd genuinely welcome the pushback.

Chart showing the exponential collapse of the lag, extrapolated to 2.0C. Reference points show 10, 20 and 30 year lag scenarios projecting 2033, 2043 and 2053 respectively.

7/ So what does the collapsing lag imply for 2.0°C?

The 1st daily breach was 17th Nov 2023. The exponential trend projects ~2029, almost certainly too soon.

But a 10yr lag gives 2033. A 20yr lag gives 2043. Consensus says ~2050.

Which is right?

Line chart showing the lag in years between daily and annual mean breach, declining from ~50 years at 0.5C to 9 years at 1.5C.

6/ Quantifying the lag directly: it has collapsed from ~50 years at 0.5°C down to just 9 years at 1.5°C.

Every threshold tells the same story, a signature of accelerating warming.

Two staircase lines showing when daily maximum and annual mean first breached each threshold from 0.5C to 2.0C. The lines converge at higher thresholds.

5/ Plotting when each threshold was first breached shows two staircase lines converging.

Daily extremes are getting closer and closer to the annual mean at each new milestone.

Scatter plot showing for each temperature threshold, the year the daily maximum first breached it vs the year the annual mean first breached it. Points cluster closer to the diagonal at higher thresholds, showing the gap is closing.

4/ For every threshold from 0.5°C to 1.5°C in 0.02°C steps, I tracked:

The first year a daily maximum crossed it

The first year the annual mean crossed it

The gap between them is closing

Line chart showing 85 years of daily global temperature anomalies vs 1850-1900 baseline. A clear upward trend from near zero in 1940 to over 1.5C today, with a white rolling average line.

3/ First, the raw data. 85 years of daily global temperature anomalies vs the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline.

The warming trend is unmistakable, and it's accelerating.

The rolling average has gone from 0.25 in 1940 to 1.5°C.

Data: @copernicusecmwf.bsky.social ERA5 reanalysis

Log-scale chart showing cumulative individual days above six temperature thresholds from 0.5C to 2.0C since 1940. By September 2025: 800 days above 1.5C, 139 days above 1.75C, and just 6 days above 2.0C. The curves steepen and shift rightward at higher thresholds, illustrating the pattern this analysis investigates. Credit: @reescatophuls.bsky.social

2/ Inspired by @reescatophuls.bsky.social's brilliant cumulative days charts, if you look carefully, there's a pattern hiding in plain sight: the gap between the first daily occurrence at each threshold & rapid accumulation is shrinking at each level.

I wanted to measure that gap precisely.

Chart showing the exponential collapse of the lag, extrapolated to 2.0C. Reference points show 10, 20 and 30 year lag scenarios projecting 2033, 2043 and 2053 respectively.

1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news

For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels

Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵

"how could we possibly afford a just transition"

- YouTube

The Fifth Estate #Climate

Too bad there aren't any rich people who could run ads with this information on every social media and regular media channel.