Johann-Friedrich Salzmann (Joff)

Danke!

Thanks António! 🙏

Thanks Javier!! And also for your help 🙏

Danke, freue mich riesig! 🪩

Thank you!

Whoop! Tysm & looking forward 🤝

Lieben Dank:)

Großes Danke und werde mich vorsehen im Südwesten! 🏊‍♂️🐬

Ganz lieben Dank! 🙏

🙏😊🤝 thanks!!

not to forget about: @lennartschuermann.bsky.social, @laurenzlammer.bsky.social, Rainer Kolisch, Peter Selb, Ingrid Mauerer, Wai Tak Tung, and the wahlbrief.de & fzi.de teams.

Also special thanks to @clemensb.bsky.social, my partner in crime, @finnkru.bsky.social, and everyone else who endured these intense months with me!

@krausewe.bsky.social @paulbuerkner.com @steffenmau.bsky.social @antvalentim.bsky.social @wrina.bsky.social @alexprs.bsky.social @lwarode.bsky.social @unddom.bsky.social, Thomas Gschwend, Harald Schoen, Michael Mäs, Michaela Kreyenfeld, Sascha Goebel, Richard Hilmer, Helmut Küchenhoff, Paul Thurner.

Big thanks to everyone who advised and supported me over the past few months! @conjugateprior.org @simonsaysnothin.bsky.social @denis-cohen.bsky.social @lstoetze.bsky.social @eliaskoch.bsky.social @hannahrajski.bsky.social @klaramueller.bsky.social @juliusk.bsky.social @aikowagner.bsky.social

I’m also very excited to have been accepted to present my prototype work at @dvpw.bsky.social SekMethoden @unihannover.bsky.social & PolMeth Europe @tcddublin.bsky.social this spring.

Meanwhile, I’ve just started as a RA at @mzesunimannheim.bsky.social, until my PhD program begins.

Some thrilling personal news — I’ve been admitted to the PhD program in Political Science at the University of Mannheim @gessunimannheim.bsky.social starting this autumn! I'll be joining Thomas Gschwend's team and study short-term shifts in political opinion and electoral preferences.

VOD is up now. We ended up going for two and a half hours, talking about time series, hierarchical, and even fact or models in constrained spaces, what makes for a well-defined model comparison and what makes for a useful one, and more.

StanCon 2026 in Uppsala, Sweden
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/10/13/s...

Johann-Friedrich Salzmann Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information

Thanks for sharing!

If you know about a research group (or an upcoming project) that would be a good fit, or if you can connect me to somebody I should talk to – please send me a DM or an email.

jfsalzmann.com

6/6

Theses:
- Modelling Week-to-Week Voting Intention Change in Germany: A Bayesian Imputation Approach Using High-Frequency Panel Data (@hertieschool.bsky.social & fzi.de)
- A Sudden Surge in Climate Awareness: Evidence from German Political Polls in 2019 (@hertieschool.bsky.social)

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I have recently worked mostly with opinion poll panels, census, and related survey data with a focus on political party preferences, vote switching, and the dynamics of voter behaviour.

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Research Areas of Interest:
- Electoral behaviour, public opinion dynamics
- Collective action, preferences and choice
- Social movements & networks, social influence
- Diffusion of information, norms, behaviours
- Climate change attitudes, social tipping processes

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tl;dr:
I’m a passionate Bayesian modeller fascinated by complex social phenomena and their non-linear dynamics. I combine probabilistic methods with solid social science theory to study emergent societal change through the processes and behaviours that underlie it.

2/6

Johann-Friedrich Salzmann Academic Website, Portfolio, and Contact Information

I'm looking for a PhD position (PolSci / Sociology / Data Science) starting this autumn or winter: jfsalzmann.com

# Bayesian Modelling, Electoral Behaviour, Opinion Dynamics

I'm a Berlin-based recent graduate in Data Science, Public Policy from the Hertie School.

1/6

it's actually a few more votes (5k to 10k), the numbers are percentages

Der Wagenknecht-Tracker 5 Prozent der Zweitstimmen auf Bundesebene benötigt das BSW, um in den Bundestag einzuziehen.

datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nArz6/2/

Jetzt anmelden: #Demokratie im Umschlag – Deine Stimme per #Briefwahl
Am Dienstag, 11.2., 18:30-19:30 Uhr stellt euch Urheber Johann-Friedrich Salzmann die Website wahlbrief.de und seine Initiative bei einer Online-Veranstaltung vor.

👉 Sei dabei: www.mehr-demokratie.de/mehr-bewegen...

Wahlbrief - Briefwahl zur Bundestagswahl beantragen Jetzt die Unterlagen zur Briefwahl beantragen: Schnell, bequem und online. Wahlbrief erstellt in 2 Minuten den Online-Antrag.

Du bist am Wahltag nicht zu Hause oder willst bequem von überall abstimmen? Dann bestelle jetzt deine #Briefwahlunterlagen! ✅

So einfach geht’s:
📌 Auf wahlbrief.de gehen und deine Briefwahl beantragen
📌 Unterlagen ausfüllen
📌 Abschicken – fertig!

Jede Stimme zählt!
#MehrDemokratie

Unsere #PLANBerlin2030 Kampagne zu Berliner Balkonkraftwerken startet heute: wir wollen verhindern, dass 3.5 Mio Euro Fördergelder für die Energiewende von unten zum Jahresende einfach verfallen. Die ganze Geschichte:

3.5 Mio Euro für BürgerInnen-getriebene Energiewende drohen zu verfallen. Warum Berliner MieterInnen noch 20 Tage haben, um die Sonne auf Ihren Balkon zu holen. Ein 🧵1/