Leon Simons

The image is a graph. X-Axis is the date 1st Jan 2000 until 8th March 2026. Y-Axis is the percentage of the preceding 365 days, which are above different global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly milestones. Example On 8th March 2026, the previous 365 days had: * 100.0% days over 1.0C * 98.4% days over 1.1C * 94.2% days over 1.2C * 80.5% days over 1.3C * 58.4% days over 1.4C * 35.1% days over 1.5C * 16.2% days over 1.6C * 4.4% days over 1.7C * 0.3% days over 1.8C * 0.0% days over 1.9C * 0.0% days over 2.0C The plot looks like a set of coloured waves, where each wave is a different GMST anomaly (0.2C, 0.3C, etc), and shows the temperatures increasing and decreasing over roughly 5 year periods, but overall they keep getting hotter over time. The Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomaly values, come from Copernicus ERA5, and use the 1850-1900 "Pre-Industrial" baseline. This graphic is an update, to the ones I posted in September 2024, February 2025, March 2025, June 2025, November 2025 How the graph was created: https://parisagreementtemperatureindex.com/warming-tapestry-percent-days-over-milestone/

Global Warming surging upwards in waves.
The last 365 days:
* 100% over 1.0C
* 35% over 1.5C
* 4% over 1.7C
The post 2024 mega-surge still hasn't bottomed out.
El Nino is rearing its head in the forecasts, hinting at higher temperatures to come?

#ClimateChange #GlobalBoiling

Thank omnium for sharing.
My comment:

"They got you fighting a culture war to stop you from fighting a class war"

We live in a time where the world's richest man and the world's biggest transphobe are one and the same person.

Brent Crude Oil at >$109/barrel.

My 9 yo daughter asked me last week if she could give us some money to help us pay for things, after learning in school that everything will get more expensive because of rising oil price.

We're fine.

As always, the poorest will suffer most.

Climate Chat ia about to start!

(California/the US already switched to summer time, while here in Western Europe we'll do so on March 29)

This is a good point:

"Given that we only have a single ensemble of reality, one should recognize that estimates of ECS derived from the historical record may not be a good estimate of our climate system's true value."

In health science we have >8 billion 'test cases'.

In planetary science only 1

Happy to see @drjamesehansen.bsky.social on here!! Definitely a must follow for anyone who cares about/wants to understand climate change and the worsening climate crisis!

Chart showing the exponential collapse of the lag, extrapolated to 2.0C. Reference points show 10, 20 and 30 year lag scenarios projecting 2033, 2043 and 2053 respectively.

1/🌡️ Global warming passed a milestone on 17th Nov 2023 that barely made the news

For the first time ever, the world's daily average temperature was 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels

Here's what the data says about when that becomes the annual norm, & whether it's coming sooner than anyone expects🧵

Log-scale chart showing cumulative individual days above six temperature thresholds from 0.5C to 2.0C since 1940. By September 2025: 800 days above 1.5C, 139 days above 1.75C, and just 6 days above 2.0C. The curves steepen and shift rightward at higher thresholds, illustrating the pattern this analysis investigates. Credit: @reescatophuls.bsky.social

2/ Inspired by @reescatophuls.bsky.social's brilliant cumulative days charts, if you look carefully, there's a pattern hiding in plain sight: the gap between the first daily occurrence at each threshold & rapid accumulation is shrinking at each level.

I wanted to measure that gap precisely.

"All sorts of things could be drawn inside those broad error ranges including things which aren’t physically meaningful at all."

Adding monster Mike into the climate model error range 🤣

Someone who's willing to commit 'bad faith trial misconduct' in front of a judge and jury probably isn't honest outside the courtroom either.

It also raises the question who is made 'famous' and why.

Some treat this more as a pissing contest rather than an honest debate about what the data shows.

Based on the NASA CERES data (used for the Hansen et al. climate sensitivity estimates), the current rate of heat uptake (and the relative fluxes) are at the very edge of CMIP6/IPCC estimates.

If the NASA satellite data is correct, the IPCC best estimate and resulting carbon budgets etc are wrong

Based on the NASA CERES data (used for the Hansen et al. climate sensitivity estimates), the current rate of heat uptake (and the relative fluxes) are at the very edge of CMIP6/IPCC estimates.

If the NASA satellite data is correct, the IPCC best estimate and resulting carbon budgets etc are wrong

"Many scientists agree that the rate at which it is increasing has picked up.

This is mainly because of a reduction in air pollution following the introduction of fuel regulations for international shipping "

'Climate change is speeding up — the pace nearly doubled in ten years'
@nature.com

www.nature.com/articles/d41...

He lies about and smears anyone who takes an honest look at the actual data.

Let alone those who call him out on his disinformation spreading.

I understand why many want to avoid his wrath.

bsky.app/profile/leon...

He publicly denies acceleration of global warming, while research he coauthors confirms it.

What he calls an 'indefensible' and 'ad hoc method' (correcting for natural variability) was already published in 2011 and has been cited 359 times:

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Everyone who's ever published a scientific paper knows that many professors don't even bother to read papers they slap their names on.

It's either that or fraud and gross negligence.

Not sure which is worse

Phrased more clearly a year earlier:

bsky.app/profile/leon...

This is what new age climate change denial looks like.

The truth is that some can't help themselves to keep digging, even while putting their names on papers comfirming acceleration of global warming and the contributing factors of reducing aerosols and continued greenhouse gas emissions.

The math is very easy, but manny find it hard to come to grisps with reality

"In case of a linear evolution, that corresponds to the mid‐point of the 20‐year period defined by IPCC as 1.5°C threshold. According to this, all data sets are near 1.5°C already and will cross that limit before 2030."

#ClimateEmergency

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly During the last decade, the rate at which Earth warmed increased substantially After removing the influence of known natural variability factors, the increase of the warming rate is statistically...

Link to new (paywalled🤬) @agu.org GRL study
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1...

We (e.g. Global warming in the pipeline, Hansen et al. 2023, 2022 preprint) have been warning for years.

The larger modeling community still underestimates the rate of warming, mainly because of faulty assumptions on aerosols.

It's good to have more observations based reseach.

Why is crucial scientistific climate research still being paywalled?!

Rest in power Aaron Swartz

Global Warming Has Accelerated Significantly
Foster & @rahmstorf.bsky.social

"The resulting adjusted and thus less “noisy” data show that there has been acceleration with over 98% confidence, with faster warming over the last 10+ years than during any previous decade."

This Equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is about to surface:

We could be in for a ride...

Wrong James