Even Goldman is tracking the mixed messages.
11.03.2026 11:03
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Even Goldman is tracking the mixed messages.
Like DBnomics on steroids ❤️
Domino meme Small domino: people upset about high food and energy prices Large domino: higher food and energy prices
This is going to get really old
Is it still 'Fibre to the Premises' if the premises is currently just the top of a damp wooden pole? We finally got this last week but still can't use it as Openreach haven't tested & "lighted" it 😔
I usually find Perplexity is the most accurate for factual research, this comparison is from Which via "The AI pension advisers are already here" giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Financial market participants dragging themselves to the office:
Rabobank on the unfolding worst case scenario:
Marvellous! That's great to hear thank you
I can only relate what people I speak to say. They're concerned about US valuations and the concentration in the Mag 7. So the effect is moving away by tilting to value, ex-US investments or small caps or equal weighted US indices
Too tasty. Feel ill.
Hiding in my office upstairs as there's a baby shower in full swing downstairs. I _might_ be allowed a taste of the amazing cake made by Nikki (www.nikkisbountifulbakery.co.uk). She did Laura's birthday cake too which was delicious and beautiful to boot. Back to Claude code for now...
a graph of year-on-year change in US manufacturing employment
The US continues to lose manufacturing jobs—payrolls are down 100k over the last year, & another 12k jobs were lost in February
Transportation (especially auto manufacturing), chemicals, & wood are the biggest losers, but few subsectors are doing well
There are old strategists and bold strategists - but no old, bold strategists
If it was just risk-off, US Treasuries would be rallying. They're not. Bond markets are pricing inflation, not recession which seems pretty sensible to me. That's not going to be good for US growth stocks in a higher-for-longer policy rate scenario. Scuppers hopes for UK growth too 😔
every single macro-type person i've spoken to this week has been very much in the 'ah it'll blow over' camp
i don't understand why, but this is the consensus
'It'll blow over' is doing a lot of work for a closure that's taken out Strait of Hormuz traffic. Second-round inflation effects take 6–8 quarters to transmit. Either the bond market is wrong to price in more inflation or the stategists are wrong. My money's on Treasuries
🚨 Quick post taking the measure of inflation expectations in fixed income markets www.ft.com/content/ed52...
The "average" stock is winning, megacaps are struggling
The huge rotation in US stocks
Sell America, the theme for 2026?
Stagflation - the central bank's worst nightmare
The chokepoint that can reprice the world
Some highlights from last night's market summary (full video here: youtube.com/live/XUqramM...
This is just the most incredible chart...
if the UK government implements current policies on taxes and benefits, public debt is stable (contrary to what the OBR always mistakenly tells us)
My column as.ft.com/r/e69f1407-e...
🤷 ya know i've been at this lark a while and i'm starting to think markets don't make much sense
(from DB)
Turns out having an energy system dependent on natural gas isn't a good thing when LNG supplies get turned off. Who wouldda thought?!
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has all but stopped since yesterday.
Read the @financialtimes.com Economics editor, Sam Fleming's analysis of what the impact the war in Iran will have on the global economy
www.ft.com/content/31bf...
Those algorithms are clever!
Maggie was at Imperial for her Physics degree. I know that because I sat next to her in Lecture Theatre 1!
That's our Many Happy Returns jingle! I thought the cash person was a bit scary 👻
