As has been assessed before, a prolonged blockade at Hormuz will keep oil prices above 100$. A 'short war' leads to an oil price crisis at around 80$.
Funny how Trump is now backtracking to short war, while IRGC now feels emboldened, stating we can last longer than you.
bsky.app/profile/rolf...
Oil price graph last 5 years, showing Russian invastion in Ukraine
Oil price graph of last week, showing huge spike following American attack on Iran.
Interesting to compare below two graphs. The first is the 5-year oil price. Yesterday's spike is lost in low resolution. Second is high-res version of current spike.
Conclusion: Putin and Trump created two almost equal spikes (~115$) in the global oil price, with their attacks on Ukraine and Iran.
China earns more in clean tech exports than US does with fossil fuels
• US energy firms sold $80bn in oil & gas abroad through July '25 (latest available data)
• China exported $120bn in green tech over same period, with rising footprint in developing economies
www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
But before we are there the main priority is Macron's proposal. And part of that should be integrating European air forces - and ramping up anti-ballistic air defense. Investments on that front have been extremely underwhelming since 24/02/22 - German Arrow as single exception...
Agreed. Spreading out across coalition countries is crucial.
Stil it's also important to diversify ownership. UK is already outside EU. We can't risk a collapse of the umbrella under a possible FN France. So an extra Nordic stock really would. Same goes for Poland.
Update #IranProtests (323): Verschrikkelijk, wat een ramp!
Het regent olie in Teheran. Generaties vergiftigd😢
Video toont branden die langs d straten v Teheran nadat olie die uit depots lekte, die waren vernietigd door Israëlische aanvallen gisteravond, in delen v Teherans rioolsysteem terechtkwam
Please note - while wearing a catheter drainage bag, strapped to the leg. That deserves some attention on its own:
bsky.app/profile/wate...
Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. What is it?
The whole idea is that it PREVENTS the attack Marinus.
Extremely important - for peace and stability - that not only the Nordics but also other European cooperate on this.
We have had this peace since 1945 bc the US played that role. Now deterrence at the most effective level is our own job.
Die russischen Kriegsverbrecher haben wieder einmal einen massiven Angriff auf die zivile Infrastruktur der Ukraine ausgeführt.
In Charkiv haben sie bisher mind. 5 Menschen ermordet, als sie ein Wohnhaus zerstört haben. Die Such- und Rettungsarbeiten dauern immer noch an.
Johan van Zanten in @trouw.nl, zaterdag.
You're not the only one to point to the possibility of Trump in fact having lymphoma:
www.youtube.com/shorts/WYWyM...
The credible accusations of rape of a 13-year old by Trump are making headlines globally (Dutch national broadcaster below). In this case the DOJ could no longer cover up their own cover up, as others pointed out these disappeared FBI files existed - so they had to release...
nos.nl/artikel/2605...
"Ukraine's F-16 fighter jets didn't have enough missiles to shoot down Russian drones and missiles for more than three weeks after supplies from Kyiv's partners dried up just as Moscow was preparing a massive winter air campaign, three sources said." www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Ukrainian forces liberate 9 eastern settlements as Russian troops face Starlink disruptions; As Ukrainian regions start preparing for next winter, Kyiv lags behind; Zelensky floats swapping Patriot missiles for interceptor drones amid increased Iranian Shahed threat; and more.
who made this
Two days after the US starts a massive war in the Middle East that killed hundreds of people including Americans, the administration focuses on drapes in the ballroom.
Mooie column...
A 'president' who (1) is a malignant narcissist and (2) has severely progressing frontotemporal dementia poses a gigantic security risk, to the US and the world as a whole - and therefore has to be impeached. This truth will have to be repeated & delivered:
www.youtube.com/shorts/ZVxQ6...
This is a must watch, about why Trump attacked Iran. First a bizarre glimpse from 2011 & 2012 to show his motive (unsuprisingly, himself) - but the 2nd part is more chilling: he's trying to make up a story about Iran & US elections, as excuse to sabotage the midterms:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oqi...
Thanks for that excellent podcast! (Both Snyder & OBrien also always excellent on Ukraine.)
An Iranian Shahed-136 drone targeted an Emirati oil rig in the Persian Gulf. #Iran
Good to also know the background: before the threats of war with Iran started the oil price was at 60$ - and projected to structurally decline over 2026.
So once again Trump proves a life saver for Putin - while this is bad news for almost everyone else.
Two scenarios, says expert Edward Fishman:
1. Oil price rises to 80$
2. Oil price rises to 100$ - massive inflation.
You know who profits in both cases? Trump's buddy Putin.
www.ft.com/content/31bf...
afgelopen dinsdag zei de Gasunie nog dat onze historisch lage gasvoorraad geen reden tot paniek was, maar: er moet niet opeens een blokkade van de Straat van Hormuz komen ofzo. (nos.nl/artikel/2603...)
vandaag: matig nieuws over De Straat van Hormuz. nos.nl/liveblog/260...
Tiny difference in this otherwise striking comparison is that your poll numbers are going down because you raped children. You can never bomb that away.
Meanwhile on the western front an email surfaces in which Epstein clarifies that a rape did not occur at a party but "AT MY HOUSE WITH DONALD AND I RAPING HER."
So there child rapist, you start a fresh war everytime it comes close? How many wars you got planned?
One of the biggest Epstein problems that Trump cannot bomb away, is that many people know specific things about Trump that are in the Epstein files - and that have not been released. This includes allegations of raping a 13-year old - but there are now 9 known cases:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7gK...
Lutnick Photographed With Epstein in Bombshell Deleted File
The picture was located by “jmail,” a site that has a searchable version of Epstein’s Gmail inbox.
It does not match any results on the DOJ’s Epstein website.
www.thedailybeast.com/howard-lutni...
www.removepaywall.com/search?url=h...
And again Trump's DOJ simply removes incriminating evidence 🤯 - this time pictures of Trump's buddy Howard Lutnick on Epstein's island.
Now imagine what's in the 3 million files they have unlawfully failed to release. They are so obviously guilty.....
www.youtube.com/watch?v=L9Mu...
