Evollve

Can’t wait!

Happy women’s college volleyball national championship match day to all those who celebrate.

Here's how title probabilities have shifted since Selection Sunday

In a surprise to no one, Nebraska's loss has vaulted everyone's chances significantly upward

Chart showing how good Pitt Volleyball is at scoring when different players are serving. The top players with more than 50 serves? Mallorie Meyer at 52.5%, Izzy Masten at 50.1% and Brooke Mosher at 48.5%

BTW @evollve.net continues to be an awesome place for metrics that you can't find elsewhere.

Be on the lookout for Mallorie Meyer's serving runs. Pitt has won 52.5% of points with Meyer on the service line -- the 18th highest mark in the country.

And linear scale with a zoom in on the bottom:

Linear scale:

Update on how championship probabilities have shifted since Selection Sunday

First, on a log scale:

For a linear scale with more visibility for the non-1 seeds, here's a zoomed in version

And here's the linear scale (for Nebraska fans)

Here's how our championship probabilities changed from the start of the tournament to the start of the Sweet 16

First up, the log scale (for math nerds)

Weekly Recap: Week 15 Thank you for supporting Evollve!

🏐Cal Poly dancing on
🏐UNI pulls victory from the jaws of defeat
🏐Shaylee Meyers comes up big for Kansas State

Weekly recap ⤵️

evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

Glad to hear you’ll be there in person! Unfortunately we can’t make it in person to this one.

Not sure if you’ve found our volleyball analytics site yet but here’s our tournament win probabilities if you’re interested. bsky.app/profile/evol...

And here's our official bracket!

First round gets underway this afternoon!

Here are our championship probabilities entering the tournament!

Yes, Nebraska's chances are over 4 times as high as anyone else's

NCAA Women's Volleyball Tournament Predictions | Predictions of making each round of the NCAA Women's Volleyball Tournament Traditional and Advanced NCAA Volleyball Statistics from Evollve

Our NCAA Tournament projections are LIVE

Check them out as you fill out your bracket this week!

evollve.net/stats/ncaa/w...

Weekly Recap: Week 14 Thank you for supporting Evollve!

🏐Kentucky’s title-winning comeback
🏐Avah Armour’s clutch kills
🏐Updated top 25 heading into the tourney

Weekly recap⤵️

evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

NEW just in time for Selection Sunday:

Evollve Ratings are live on the
FanFlare Sports app!

Download the app for scores and rankings ahead of the NCAA volleyball tournament!

apps.apple.com/us/app/fanfl...

Still posting the Big Ten projections despite the lack of ACC-level drama because

1. We're not above using Nebraska's dominance to shamelessly get engagement from Husker fans

2. There's still a 2.5% chance that the unbeaten streak ends!

Penn St & Ohio St get the last 2 chances

All eyes on the ACC this week, with a three-way tie atop the standings entering the final week of the regular season!

Louisville faces each of the other two, while Pitt and Stanford both face Louisville and Georgia Tech

Weekly Recap: Week 13 Thank you for supporting Evollve!

🏐A Seattle stunner
🏐Southern's season-saving 6-0 run
🏐Longhorns back on top of the "what if Nebraska didn't exist" power rankings

Weekly recap⤵️

evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

Updated Big Ten projections: Nebraska's 99.9 has finally ticked up to 100.0, but the question remains -- will the Huskers finish off the perfect season?

Updated Big 12 projections: the Sun Devils can taste it

Updated ACC projections: 3-way tie atop the standings as we hit the home stretch!

Weekly Recap: Week 12 Thank you for supporting Evollve!

🏐UC San Diego on both sides of major upsets
🏐Southern's reverse sweep
🏐Clutch performances in the Fun Belt

Weekly recap⤵️

evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

This was a fun topic to dive into, in part because it allows for comparisons to other sports.

The chart below is the key takeaway from the post: Calling a timeout does not appear to help teams trying to stop an extended scoring run from their opponents:

1/

Don't just do something, stand there! A deep dive into the impact of coaching timeouts in NCAA women's volleyball

If your team gives up a 5-0 run, you may be hoping your coach calls a timeout

But does it actually help?

@inpredict.bsky.social dove into the data:

evollve.substack.com/p/dont-just-...

Updated SEC projection -- Texas A&M in "so you're telling me there's a chance" mode

(yes, but they'll need some help from Oklahoma or Arkansas this week)

Updated Big Ten projections -- Nebraska fans will need to wait at least one more week to see that 99.9% move to 100.0%

Updated Big 12 projections: Arizona State inching closer to a title

Updated ACC projections -- one way or another, this will look a lot different after Pitt vs Stanford on Friday!