An injury to ANY of Hayes, Suarez, or Stewart figures to catapult Nathaniel Lowe from a bench bat to a strong-side platoon role at 1b/DH, and a lot of playing time. Which is very important depth to retain.
Rather than keeping Bleday sitting on MLB bench over playing regularly in AAA.
If veteran Lowe makes the roster, he isn’t in line for 162 - he’s a bench bat and pinch hitter, hunting for spot starts at 1b/DH against RHPs.
He’s filling that role in MLB in 2026, whether in Cincinnati or elsewhere.
I definitely want him here, fighting for playing time.
I also think, with two spots been Benson, Lowe, and Bleday… these final guys - Steer, Myers, Benson, Lowe (as I expect) figure to be in a REAL crunch for playing time.
If Bleday makes it, I sure don’t see him getting many ABs. While if optioned, Bleday would play everyday in AAA.
Is Nathaniel Lowe finished, at age 30? I don't think so. He had a bad season in Washington (86 wRC+ in 490 PA for a -0.8 fWAR), but really rebounded in 34 games, 119 PA in Boston (114 wRC+, +0.4 fWAR).
He's not an upside play, but a safe above average hitter (career 117 wRC+), good clubhouse guy.
A year ago, I do think they valued Gavin Lux's experiences with playoffs (x5). Austin Hays, Espinal, and Trevino had made playoffs twice.
But, most of those veterans are gone, replaced by Eugenio Suarez (2014, 2020, 2022, 2025 playoff appearances) and Nathaniel Lowe (2020, 2023, 2025 playoffs).
Lowe's former teammate Brock Burke gave a quote earlier this spring, calling Lowe the glue guy of the Rangers' World Series team in 2023.
I think that kinda stuff will matter a lot to Tito and the #Reds, as they hope for Suarez and Lowe to be veteran leaders on a mostly still young team.
I do think some are viewing Nathaniel Lowe's #Reds roster candidacy too strictly as a measure of spring production (or limited defensive position), when his experience (Silver Slugger winner, Gold Glove Winner, World Series Champion) and reputation as a good clubhouse guy are a HUGE part.
Jeimer Candelario, now trying to add 2b to his repertoire, has a 184 wRC+ this spring, in 28 PA for the Angels.
A significant sample size. Huge. He’s clearly headed to a career season.
The Angels should make him their everyday second baseman, please and thank you.
Well, at least he’s not playing 2b or 3b. I dunno, that’s all I’ve really got. It’s kinda difficult to come up with more of a positive there.
Such a weird signing. But, as I always say, I love when big markets squander their financial advantage to give other teams a chance.
I think people disappointed in the long time #Reds doctor, especially after the leading expert in the country confirmed the findings/recommendation, which makes them double wrong... will be really disappointed to know that a different guy (Razzano) became #Reds team doctor in 2023.
A lot of injuries (Elly’s quad, for example) heal over the winter. Many aren’t even reported until months later (Steer said he had a leg injury, I think?). I think we forget all those.
But yeah, when they ramp up in spring training, sometimes things come back. Those are 100% cases we hear about.
“The doctors are idiots”, to me, is a classic display of the Dunning Kruger effect.
The doctors have facts, we’ve got bits of information that somebody has volunteered to share (despite no obligation to transparency), upon which we can make bold declarations from our lack of relevant information.
I think the normal process here is to see a doctor, then another for a second opinion. Then do what they say.
I get the fan opinion tends to be “the doctors are idiots”, but I think it’s worth REALLY valuing the input of the experts who have examined and (actually, really) understand the case.
Working with actual doctors - good doctors, who are ultimately just smart/well educated people - is very different than TV shows and sports fan portrayals of looking at person and curing them overnight.
Basically imagining Star Trek tricorders (scanners) and miracle cures.
Being a MLB pitcher on a big contract, you send something like this to the most famous orthopedic surgeon in the world for second opinion, and do what he advises.
I think the key is to figure out why the people who understand stuff advise a certain course of action, not just assume they’re idiots.
I think the available information actually suggests that lots of MLB pitchers have bone fragments floating around their elbow, and the plan is generally to reduce the symptoms, inflammation.
They don’t get removed until they cause problems, but that doesn’t mean they all cause problems.
Can I answer?
They said they diagnosed this in October, and medical consensus was to try an injection to treat (focusing on making bone chips asymptomatic, as they often are). They made a point of saying leading expert (ElAttrache) advised that.
Surgery is the last resort.
Sam Moll hit 93.3 mph today, in his 5th outing of the spring. I doubt he's pushing for velocity, just preparing for season.
2023: 96.7 mph (max), 94.1 mph (average)
2024: 96.3 mph (max), 93.3 mph (average)
2025: 94.7 mph (max), 92.1 mph (average)
5 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6 K. #Reds
Congratulations to Hampson, Higgins, Richardson, Misiewicz, and Marte for additional time in MLB camp. Banfield probably sticks to end of camp.
Hinds, Dunn, Maxwell, Mey seemingly have little chance of making the team (no matter what they do, at this rate), but figure to get plenty of chances.
Needing 8 relief pitchers, the #Reds have 16 left in camp, including NRIs Antone, Danner, Misiewicz, Richardson, and Marte, whose chances I order like that.
And all of whom I consider to be far less likely than Sam Moll and Kyle Nicolas. Maxwell and Mey are also in camp.
Needing 13 position players, the #Reds have 19 left in camp. Including NRIs Lowe (1b)*, Hampson (INF), Banfield (C), and Higgins (C). Also Rece Hinds, Blake Dunn, Will Benson*, and JJ Bleday.
I think two spots clearly go to two of Lowe, Benson, and Bleday, in that order.
Misiewicz has no chance of making the roster, even with a nice spring, as his chances are far lower than Moll’s to be the third lefty.
Maybe he’s at the end of his chances, but I suspect his MLB experience and spring performance buys him some more time.
But, maybe not.
I suspect Garrett Hampson, who has no real chance of making the team, sticks around at least until Arroyo returns from the WBC, although they’ve also been giving Steele Hall and Tyson Lewis looks, and maybe we see more Balcazar.
There’s no reason to prioritize getting Hampson ready for AAA season.
My predicted next wave of #Reds cuts/options/reassigned to minor league camp:
Trautwein
Higgins
Petty (focus on AAA)
Richardson
Yunior Marte
Lowe, Dunn (injury X factor?), Hinds, Hampson, Banfield, Antone, Danner, Misiewicz stay.
Hard to guess when Maxwell, Mey, CES get sent out.
Should 32 year old minor league free agents make teams with set bullpens if they have good springs?
I’d argue no, they shouldn’t.
Hagen Danner is 26 and also having a strong spring. The reasons he shouldn’t are his prior few seasons, and we shouldn’t overvalue spring training too much.
Antone hasn't thrown more than ~40 innings in a calendar year since 2019, and hasn't gone more than 20 innings since 2021.
Which is both part of the great feel-good story, and a reason why it would be weird to DFA somebody for him.
I think he'll earn his way up in a few weeks with an injury.
I don't think getting somebody else DFA'd is a question of mental fortitude.
Especially somebody who's probably realistically expected to throw a lot more innings in 2026.
Pitching well enough to make a 26-man roster and pushing other guys out are very different things, IMO.
How do you work with THREE lefty relievers?
Recognize their strengths and weaknesses. Moll has huge splits, and for his career has been by far the hardest for LHBs to face. Followed by Ferguson, who also has splits, but not as drastic.
While Burke has minimal splits, a RP who is left handed.
Tejay Antone is having a great spring, and has a great story. But, personally, I don't think it's enough to clear a roster spot of a comparable (or better?) player.
I hope he sticks around AAA Louisville, and continues to pitch well to get called up in short order. I'm very skeptical he makes team.
I am extremely skeptical that the #Reds clear a roster spot for Antone or Danner, or lose Sam Moll to waivers for a feel-good story.
But, Nicolas getting Ashcraft or Phillips optioned is looking like more of a possibility than I would've thought earlier this spring.
