Mathew

Oh David I'm thrilled you asked!

Mortgage rates are priced relative to Treasuries, because the vast majority of US mortgages are government-insured and therefore are only sensitive to "risk free" interest rate risk not credit risk.

So why before the policy rate actually moves? 1/

Let's be clear: you would not be pulling THAADs from South Korea and moving a Marine Expeditionary Unit from Japan to the Gulf two weeks after launching a war on Iran if you had properly anticipated the fallout it would be likely to cause.

I think a big part of the derangement of the average American is that they see people on their phone who are lying about how successful they are, believe that they're telling the truth, and then get mad that they aren't that successful right now.

The February jobs report and the revised Q4 GDP report combined with the ongoing energy price shock open up a very different distribution of macro outcomes than people were thinking about two weeks ago.

The thing with this war is that there's no easy off-ramp for Trump. Simply declaring "mission accomplished" won't cut it if Iran keeps attacking ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has leverage Venezuela and others didn't have and it's using it. A problem...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...

Trump Has Never Been a Planner, and in War That’s Deadly “The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.” — All the President’s MenSenator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, a Democrat and member of the Foreign Relations Committee, took...

Want to read someone really ripping into Trump's "strategy"? @opinion.bloomberg.com has got you>>
Trump has never played "3D chess," and his war in Iran is costing people their lives and inflicting untold damage, @timobrien.bsky.social says www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

*BRENT CRUDE EXTENDS SURGE TO 10% AS MIDEAST DISRUPTION WORSENS

Live updates: US says it destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels near the Strait of Hormuz The U.S. said it took out more than a dozen mine-laying Iranian vessels Tuesday, and the Islamic Republic vowed to block the region's oil exports, saying it would not allow “even a single liter” to be shipped to its enemies.

BREAKING: Two Iranian drones hit near Dubai International Airport and wounded four people, though flights continue, authorities said. The Dubai Media Office said the attack caused “minor injuries to two Ghanaian nationals and one Bangladeshi national, and moderate injuries to one Indian national.”

Financial market participants dragging themselves to the office:

Israel tried to pressure Obama to bomb Iran, Blinken says YouTube video by Middle East Eye

youtube.com/shorts/INZwo...

IMO, it’s important to be precise about what shocks world is undergoing rather than just $ smile safe-haven bla-bla.
1. Febs 2022 & 2026 were negative global energy supply shocks —> positive US ToT shocks.
2. Feb & April 2025 were US global public goods withdrawal —> RoW fiscal expansion shocks.

Samson and Bumrah help India retain T20 World Cup with final thrashing of New Zealand * Final: India, 255-5, beat NZ, 159, by 96 runs * Samson’s 89 leads way before Bumrah takes four for 15 It might not have been the thriller neutrals wanted, but it was everything India desired. They became the first men’s team to defend the T20 World Cup and the first to win it at home after drowning New Zealand in a deluge of runs in Ahmedabad in front of 100,000 giddy and almost universally blue-clad supporters. New Zealand looked forlorn while conceding 255 and wretched when attempting to chase it, and after meandering through much of their innings with defeat already a certainty they were still 96 behind when it ended. They have now reached four World Cup finals of various hues since 2015 and lost them all, plus the Champions Trophy last year to boot. Continue reading...

Samson and Bumrah help India retain T20 World Cup with final thrashing of New Zealand

An Epidemic of ‘Victory Disease’ The president is pointing to the American military’s excellence as though that somehow constitutes a strategy in itself.

For years, strategists have warned national leaders against the temptations of "victory disease," the belief that winning battles means they're winning the war. Leaders throughout history have made this mistake, and Trump seems to be making it now.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

(FT) - Qatar’s energy minister has warned that war in the Middle East could “bring down the economies of the world”, predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel.

@financialtimes.com
www.ft.com/content/be12...

It was me!

Some times payroll data is bad. It was bad this month.

But the idea that an economy with 4.4% unemployment, 80.7% prime age employment, and 2.4% inflation is "destroyed" is very silly.

WTI tops $90

Are investors getting the Iran conflict wrong? With Robin Brooks The chances of an economic disaster are higher than they think.

I’ve been on the bearish end of the spectrum on Iran. The Straits of Hormuz are a massive chokepoint. Iran just has to blow up one oil tanker to it'll cause a crisis in global markets. Thanks to @soumayakeynes.ft.com for having me on the FT podcast to talk about this...
www.ft.com/content/afcc...

"It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt six months."

— Donald Rumsfeld on the Iraq War (7 Feb 2003).

Brent is now up 15% from Friday. When I wrote this piece on Monday, it was only up 7% and that underpriced the massive risk to global oil supply. Iran's regime is battling for its survival. Its only hope is to drive global oil prices as high as possible...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/a-massive-...

Pete Hegseth Treats Fallen American Soldiers as a PR Problem His use of the Iran war dead to attack the media was disgraceful.

Pete Hegseth, if he does not resign, should at least get out of the way and let better men than him talk to the nation and to the press.

www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/...

I've seen enough: James Talarico (D) wins the #TXSEN Dem primary.

The number of commentators/journalists salivating at blaming Starmer for ruining the “special relationship” is genuinely pathetic

If anyone ruined it- if it even really exists- here’s a reminder of who did it.

APNewsAlert: DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — U.S. State Department orders the evacuation of non-emergency personnel and family in Bahrain and Jordan.

Amazon says drone strikes damaged 3 facilities in UAE and Bahrain

One of my colleagues wrote about this over 30 years ago, noting that Congress was all about "blame avoidance" in foreign policy, which basically made the president a king

Live: Iran confirms supreme leader Khamenei is dead after US, Israeli attacks The United States and Israel launched the most ambitious attack on Iran in decades on Saturday, and Iranian state media has confirmed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had been killed.

www.reuters.com/world/iran-c...

So the role of bitcoin in the financial system has become the risk asset people can sell when Trump’s doing yet another stupid thing while real markets are closed for the weekend.

The US is carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials tell CNN. Follow live updates: https://cnn.it/4rFzzQF

BREAKING: Israel has launched a “preventative” attack against Iran, as witnesses say they have heard explosions in Iran’s capital, Tehran, according to the Reuters news agency.

Green Party wins Gorton and Denton by-election with Labour pushed into third by Reform Hannah Spencer, a 34-year-old plumber, also becomes the first Green Party candidate to win a Westminster by-election.

It’s definitely a wake up call, but mainly for the BBC. They should get their heads our from up Farage’s backside. www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp...