A possibility which I am now working on understanding is that funds from terminated grants were not used to other NIH grants as Director Bhattacharya has said they were
Instead, it seems that they may have been returned to the Treasury, effectively cutting the NIH appropriation.
20/20
A line graph showing the smoothed number of applications for fiscal years 2015-2025 as a function of percentile score. The curve for fiscal year 2025 appears to be slightly higher than in previous fiscal years.
The data are too noisy to see trends clearly. However, the data can be smoothed by using a running-average over 10 percentile points.
This reveals that the number of applications for fiscal year 2025 is at an all-time high, ~10% higher across the board.
14/20
A short Bluetorial on plots of NIH application success rates as a function of percentile.
1/20
For me, personally, it depends. If science is still deciding who and what gets funded, only with decreasing (virtual) paylines, yeah, I'll still review.
If political hacks are making the funding decisions, then no, I won't review.
Which will t be? IDK. We have to wait and see for a couple cycles.
The only thing we can control is submitting the best proposals we can and max out the 6 sub per year limit, and go in as Co-Investigator on as many other proposals as possible. Maximize the chances by maximizing submissions. Everything else is up to the fates and not worth spending mental energy on
what will the curve look like for FY2026? we know that total $$ and MYF fraction are roughly the same as in 2025. However CSR moved the triage line (% of apps discussed and scored at study section) to 1/3 instead of 1/2. This will likely shift the 2026 curve upward, particularly at the left end.
NIH FY2025 funding data finally emerges on RePORT drugmonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/06/n...
Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success. Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302
The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted.
What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards.
Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.
I just got an email from a spam journal addressing me as "Dr. Satan"
SHOULD THE U.S BLOT OUT THE SUN AND USHER IN AN AGE OF ETERNAL DARKNESS? - Gallup 2/20/26-3/5/26
NO - 41%
YES - 38%
UNSURE - 21%
Allied and Axis powers are set
My wife is convinced that online Chipotle orders with a female name are always smaller, so she has made up male names for the four women in my house.
Current NIH leadership want you to think they are using rigorous, consistent & scientific processes to screen studies to align them with agency priorities.
But the process that they have put down on paper is a sham.
It’s important to know NIH is not following its own guidance. Here’s why:
🧵1/
I wonder if Claude would be “anxious” because the military is using it to bomb schoolgirls or because it’s poisoning the air around data centers or because it’s going to crash the economy or because it’s encouraged thousands of psychotic delusions or all of the above
The number of people employed at the NIH is at its lowest level in at least two decades.
Hear from six scientists run out by Trump and the work they left behind on cancer research, tick-borne diseases, and more.
Me + @k-hought.bsky.social @kffhealthnews.org for @cnn.com www.cnn.com/2026/03/05/h...
Dana Bash • @DanaBashCNN X.com 1/7 I just got off the phone with President Trump where he rated the war with Iran at a 12 or 15 out of 10. He told me, "We're doing very well militarily - better than anybody could have even dreamed."
Sometimes the level of stupidity is too much. It’s like listening to the permanently drunk guy at the end of the bar.
9 ancient iPhones in a shoebox
MIL discovered our iPhone graveyard
Just part of all the attacks on federal workers and their unions.
And remember a whole bunch are likely to lose their protections next week when the list of who becomes schedule F is released.
College
Supporting the NIH fellows union. Which legally speaking DOES still exist. Regardless what the administration tries to claim.
Trump has offered air support if others will do the dying for him.
Is a Senator who interferes with Capitol Police to break the bones of a Marine Corps veteran who's staging a protest subject to arrest for battery, or does that somehow fall under the Senator's constitutional privilege?
A war that isn't a war, documented with videos that may or may not be real, funded by elected leaders who are neither for nor against it, is the most dystopian thing that's happened in my lifetime
How odd that so many military veterans who saw their friends get killed in the last stupid in the Middle East feel compelled to speak out against this stupid war in the Middle East.
never, ever, ever, ever accept "how will you pay for it?" as an argument against social programs.
When all this nonsense started a year or so ago I had many colleagues who said they weren't going to waste their time writing grants.
I doubled and tripled up.
One of these strategies is a guaranteed loser. The other is just a crapshoot, same as it ever was.
Some shit is about to go down with NIH study sections, friends. Keep your eyes peeled for change that may affect your grant submissions.
FUDS for science
The Federal Union of Deranged Scientists has a better ring and more backbone than AAAS (right now).
"Freedom pencils"
