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John Holst

@illdefined.space

Analyzing the activities, business, and outcomes of the space sector (and more). Sometimes my writing makes sense.

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Latest posts by John Holst @illdefined.space

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The Ill-Defined Space Global Orbital Launch Summary: 2025 Another record year of rocket launches and spacecraft deployments.

Happy New Year!!

There’s no denying that 2025 was a year of record-breaking successful orbital launches: 315. It was a 24% increase from 2024’s launches (61 more than 2024’s 254–record-breaking at the time). It was also...
The rest of the report is at: www.illdefined.space/the-ill-defi...

01.01.2026 16:51 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

But it shouldn't be used very often. Ask Daniel.

28.09.2025 21:28 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Wither, European Launch? I have no answers, only more questions, about Europe’s launch rate.

(Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe) satellite on a SpaceX Falcon 9 on the morning of September 24th (about 0730). That launch also deployed two other satellites with United Kingdom ties...
Read more at: www.illdefined.space/wither-europ...
3/End

28.09.2025 15:50 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Three for the Price of One

While working at Florida’s Space Coast during the past few days, it’s hard not to notice launches happening at literally all hours of the day. I was there to support the launch of the IMAP...https://science.nasa.gov/mission/imap/?ref=illdefined.space
2/3

28.09.2025 15:49 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Wither, European Launch? I have no answers, only more questions, about Europe’s launch rate.

To make it extremely clear: this post contains my own observations and analysis. It does not represent anyone I work for.

Wither, European Launch? www.illdefined.space/wither-europ...

I have no answers, only more questions, about Europe’s launch rate.

1/3

28.09.2025 15:48 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

According Dr. Robert Atlas, the elimination of NOAA's AOML as proposed in their 2026 budget would result in a 20-40% decrease in hurricane forecast accuracy, costing the economy an estimated $10 billion each hurricane season. Sobering numbers on what's at stake.

09.07.2025 18:40 👍 349 🔁 164 💬 6 📌 17
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amtrak’s marketing team gets it

21.06.2025 12:21 👍 30709 🔁 10043 💬 449 📌 1218
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The Leaf Sheep eats algae, retains the chlorophyll, and uses it to photosynthesize sunlight in a process known as "kleptoplasty".

It's a solar-powered sea slug! 😁

19.06.2025 17:42 👍 73 🔁 12 💬 7 📌 3
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Honda Conducts Successful Launch and Landing Test of Experimental Reusable Rocket | Honda Global Corporate Website Honda Global | Honda R&D Co., Ltd., a research and development subsidiary of Honda Motor Co., Ltd., today conducted a launch and landing test of an experimental reusable rocket*1 (6.3 m in length, 85 ...

Uhhhh, this is the same Honda that builds bikes and cars: global.honda/en/topics/20...

17.06.2025 19:40 👍 5 🔁 2 💬 1 📌 0
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Trump declines parade march, citing sudden bone spur flare-up Insists he's ‘more injured than most heroes’ after learning parade route involves walking.

Some classic lines in here: www.duffelblog.com/p/trump-decl...

14.06.2025 13:59 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Except for beer. One must have standards...

13.06.2025 21:40 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
Black and white cat, ears angled back, seemingly staring down into distance

Black and white cat, ears angled back, seemingly staring down into distance

Thinking up plans so evil, he's even disturbed himself

09.06.2025 23:01 👍 1683 🔁 88 💬 50 📌 4

Listen on my purrs ye mighty, and despair

13.05.2025 22:25 👍 9 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0
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2025 Space Industry Observations and an Update A busy start to 2025 points to more records being broken by the year’s end. Will anyone other than SpaceX make a profit?

2025 Space Industry Observations and an Update

A busy start to 2025 points to more records being broken by the year’s end. Will anyone other than SpaceX make a profit?

open.substack.com/pub/illdefin...

18.04.2025 14:35 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
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The Missing Rocket: An Economic and Engineering Analysis of the Reusability Dilemma in the European Space Sector Intereconomics is an academic journal that publishes articles by experts on current economic and social policy issues affecting Europe.

Very interesting paper about the launcher market by Emma Gatti and Andrea D'Ottavio!

I think it is a must read for everyone interested in the economics of reusable launch vehicles.

#SpaceX Falcon 9 vs. Ariane 6

1/n

15.04.2025 11:29 👍 9 🔁 9 💬 1 📌 0
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Making Life Better? 2024 Communications and Remote Sensing So many satellites... Does more mean better products and services? Or is there tunnel vision going on?

Long thread/END

However, the plethora of communications services in 2024 demonstrates that if companies perceive a need, they...

Read the article in full at: www.illdefined.space/making-life-....
20/20

13.04.2025 17:13 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Long thread/19

...were exploiting space in the 1990s. Better, the business case for either service (terrestrial television and internet) was already established. The service delivery technologies merely differed from their Earthbound counterparts.
19/20

13.04.2025 17:12 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/18

Commercial markets served by communications satellites reflect the consumer demands of the period–television entertainment in the 1990s and global internet access in the 2020s. Of course, other types of communications businesses...
18/20

13.04.2025 17:11 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
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Long thread/17

But by 2024, spacecraft deployments almost reached 3,000–for the year. Even when SpaceX’s Starlink satellite deployments were excluded, spacecraft deployments for 2024 still exceeded 800.

17/20

13.04.2025 17:10 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/16

Again, the markets focused on seem similar. However, the scale of satellite deployments in the last several years to serve those markets is impressive. A few years in the 1990s might have exceeded 100 spacecraft deployments.
16/20

13.04.2025 17:09 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/15

Great for their competitors but not so much for U.S. companies. And, like in 2024, the biggest imagery customers still appear to be governments. Regular consumers didn’t seem to have an appetite for imagery. It still seems that way today.
15/20

13.04.2025 17:09 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/14

...most were government-run. A few companies deployed commercial versions, but almost all used optical sensors. U.S. companies had the dubious bonus of being limited to delivering products of lesser quality to their non-government customers.
14/20

13.04.2025 17:08 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/13

...gain market share. Iridium died, then started again. Teledesic, however, never became operational. But all were communications businesses that used space to serve customers.

Similarly, Earth observation satellites existed in the 1990s, but...
13/20

13.04.2025 17:08 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/12

...insurmountable challenge for some residents. For those residents seeking basic entertainment, or even more than the local option, DTH improved their lives.

A few examples of other communications services (Globalstar, Iridium, Teledesic) attempted to...
12/20

13.04.2025 17:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/11

...more entertainment and information for far less than the cable company (which may or may not have even been available). The local and free over-the-air broadcasts likely paled in comparison, and reception might have been an...
11/20

13.04.2025 17:07 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/10

For example, space communications in the 1990s relied generally on satellites in geosynchronous orbit, typically for broadcasting (including direct-to-home) only. If a person lived in the middle of Wyoming, satellite television offered...
10/20

13.04.2025 17:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/9

Perhaps familiarity is also a consideration because, as noted above, satellite communications services were and still are a popular consumer option (although less so in 2024, with the growth of wireless communications).
9/20

13.04.2025 17:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/8

Satellite deployments, orbits, etc. likely didn’t and don’t matter to the “normies.” What probably matters more in their decision-making is availability, convenience, utility, and cost.
8/20

13.04.2025 17:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/7

...consist of government spacecraft deployments. However, commercial satellite deployments grew during that time. In theory, the growth for either decade occurred because consumers' lives were improved in some way.
7/20

13.04.2025 17:06 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0

Long thread/6

Those served markets seem very 1990s.

Although, the type of communications services and remote sensing products offered in 2024 will be very different from those provided in that decade. In shorthand, much of the early 1990s seemed to...
6/20

13.04.2025 17:05 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0