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Paul Hünermund

@p-hunermund.com

Associate Professor of Strategy & Innovation | Co-founder of causalscience.org | Associate Editor at Journal of Causal Inference | Executive Team at Academy of Management TIM Division

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Latest posts by Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com

Wow, nice!

11.03.2026 05:40 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

If you’re a PhD your entire existence is leisure time as it would be understood by anybody working before automation.

10.03.2026 15:01 👍 57 🔁 8 💬 1 📌 1
Preview
ZEW-Präsident: Wirtschaftslage lässt "Weiter so" in Baden-Württemberg nicht zu Baden-Württemberg steht dem Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) zufolge nach der Landtagswahl vor erheblichen Herausforderungen. Die wirtschaftliche Lage lasse ein bloßes "Weiter so" ka...

Bei @reuters.com warnt #ZEW -Präsident Achim Wambach, dass die wirtschaftliche Lage Baden-Württembergs ein „Weiter so“ nicht zulasse und das Land vor einem tiefgreifenden #Strukturwandel stehe. Entscheidend sei, neue Wachstumsfelder zu erschließen.

www.reuters.com/de/hauslich/...

10.03.2026 14:38 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1

Die historisch korrekte Lösung

10.03.2026 13:26 👍 17 🔁 3 💬 2 📌 0
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Bluesky CEO Jay Graber Is Stepping Down Venture capitalist Toni Schneider will take over as interim CEO as Bluesky’s board of directors hunts for a permanent replacement.

Bluesky’s CEO is stepping down and saying “the company needs a seasoned operator focused on scaling and execution, while I return to what I do best: building new things."

I think this is a good call as the app seems to have hit a local maxima and needs to unlock the a step change in growth.

10.03.2026 02:40 👍 110 🔁 11 💬 15 📌 2

'Elsevier made £1.04 billion in profit in 2025, according to its parent company’s latest annual report, up 7 per cent on 2024.' 1/2

10.03.2026 08:00 👍 50 🔁 20 💬 3 📌 11
10.03.2026 06:29 👍 13 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
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09.03.2026 21:24 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Excited to share that my new book (w/ Xiang Zhou), Causal Mediation Analysis, is now out from CUP.

Order at tinyurl.com/3hspt6em with discount code CMA2025.

Includes software for Stata and R, available here: causalmedanalysis.github.io.

Thanks to everyone who helped make this happen.

09.03.2026 15:07 👍 20 🔁 8 💬 0 📌 0
Two dose-response functions. When probabilities of exposure are not homogeneous across units,
we can only partially identify the expected average outcomes from the average outcomes by exposure — even when the exposure map is correctly specified; see Corollary 11.2 — as shown here using data from Cai et al. (2015). AFEOs by exposure (left) only partially identify the EAO curve (right). Lines indicate bounds on the EAO, with red lines being the bounds when outcomes are assumed to be monotonic under exposure levels. Error bars and bands are 95% confidence intervals.

Two dose-response functions. When probabilities of exposure are not homogeneous across units, we can only partially identify the expected average outcomes from the average outcomes by exposure — even when the exposure map is correctly specified; see Corollary 11.2 — as shown here using data from Cai et al. (2015). AFEOs by exposure (left) only partially identify the EAO curve (right). Lines indicate bounds on the EAO, with red lines being the bounds when outcomes are assumed to be monotonic under exposure levels. Error bars and bands are 95% confidence intervals.

I'm giving the upcoming Online Causal Inference Seminar, this Tuesday 11:30am Eastern.

I'll be talking about different dose–response functions you might want to estimate when treatment effects may spill over from one unit to another.

Tune in & ask questions!
sites.google.com/view/ocis/home

09.03.2026 23:15 👍 36 🔁 7 💬 2 📌 0

My information consumption is 3/4 papers I have to referee and 1/4 papers my referees make me read. The opportunity cost of anything else is far too high, at least until tenure

10.03.2026 02:03 👍 32 🔁 4 💬 0 📌 0
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A New Chapter for Bluesky - Bluesky After several intense and incredible years building Bluesky from the ground up, I've decided to step back as CEO and transition to a new role as Bluesky's Chief Innovation Officer.

Some personal news: I’m transitioning from CEO to a new role as Bluesky’s Chief Innovation Officer! I’m excited to welcome @toni.bsky.team as our interim CEO.

More here: bsky.social/about/blog/0...

09.03.2026 19:08 👍 6072 🔁 910 💬 576 📌 409

ayatollah is supposed to be an academic position and you can tell this is true because after an extensive search they went with an internal candidate

09.03.2026 12:45 👍 320 🔁 40 💬 6 📌 2
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Pop cultural references in class start off as a way of making the material more understandable and the instructor more relatable, and incredibly quickly turn into a way of emphasizing how old and out of touch the instructor is.

09.03.2026 21:59 👍 422 🔁 25 💬 18 📌 6

All tibble haters take heed

09.03.2026 18:55 👍 6 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Non-examinable? 🧐

09.03.2026 16:58 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0

Particularly funny, if there's a little corner in that field, which has been influenced by "complex systems thinking."

09.03.2026 10:51 👍 12 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0

It's funny when fields, which have relied exclusively on verbal, handwavy theory, start to use DAGs and realize what a mess they've maneuvered themselves in.

09.03.2026 10:47 👍 17 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 1

"Die Natur schlägt im Menschen die Augen auf und bemerkt, dass sie da ist."

09.03.2026 09:43 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A fluffy white hamster wearing pink sunglasses sits in a pink toy car with sparkles around it. Text reads: “Me hyping myself up before another day of work” and “the horrors persist, but so do I.”

A fluffy white hamster wearing pink sunglasses sits in a pink toy car with sparkles around it. Text reads: “Me hyping myself up before another day of work” and “the horrors persist, but so do I.”

Morning, fellas

09.03.2026 07:50 👍 15 🔁 2 💬 0 📌 0

Zeitverzögert und nuanciert? Baden-Württemberg war schon immer eine Hochburg des Rechtsextremismus in Deutschland.

09.03.2026 07:00 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
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Few think that the world’s next trillion-dollar tech company will be European. But, perhaps for the first time, that does not seem a silly idea econ.st/3PlThCL

Illustration: Tyler Comrie

08.03.2026 07:00 👍 43 🔁 15 💬 2 📌 2

And admit failure?

09.03.2026 06:43 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Achso, war nur Spazierfahrt 😉

09.03.2026 06:20 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 1 📌 0
Going To Germany
Going To Germany YouTube video by Cannon's Jug Stompers - Topic

youtu.be/JyvuRQBBUxU?...

09.03.2026 06:09 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Wir wissen das, wir sind ja in dem Radius aufgewachsen. 😉

09.03.2026 06:01 👍 1 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

A society can't function that way

09.03.2026 05:27 👍 7 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0

Im 100km-Radius von Paderborn zu leben ist ja auch hart.

09.03.2026 05:12 👍 5 🔁 0 💬 2 📌 0
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The sky is not falling; high-quality platforms (Prolific, Verasight, CR Connect) have low rates of apparent bots. osf.io/preprints/ps... But also not zero; vigilance is very much needed!

08.03.2026 20:56 👍 104 🔁 49 💬 1 📌 2
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Polls have closed in the first of this year's five German state elections, in prosperous Baden-Württemberg. It's looking like a remarkable win-from-behind by the Greens under @oezdemir.de. Full results over the course of the evening.

08.03.2026 17:08 👍 646 🔁 178 💬 13 📌 25