Trending
Paul Heer's Avatar

Paul Heer

@pauljcheer

Former National Intelligence Officer for East Asia. Diplomatic historian.

359
Followers
44
Following
205
Posts
27.11.2024
Joined
Posts Following

Latest posts by Paul Heer @pauljcheer

"TWENTY TIMES HARDER"!! Don't risk it!!!

10.03.2026 01:08 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

For those Republicans who dismiss Trump's critics as afflicted by "Trump Derangement Syndrome": (1) Are there any things Trump has done that you don't like? (2) What do you think should be done about those things? (3) Why isn't something being done about those things?

08.03.2026 17:24 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There's something indecorous about him wearing that baseball cap on such an occasion.

08.03.2026 13:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Either Tulsi Gabbard is boldly dissenting from Trump's approach to Iran, or someone on the NIC is going to be fired.

07.03.2026 14:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Great thread. Operation Epic Fury could also reinforce Beijing's belief that time is on its side with regard to Taiwan: if the US preoccupation with Iran undermines Taiwan's confidence in US attention and protection, it might reduce the possibility that Beijing sees the need to use force.

07.03.2026 14:15 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 2 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes! Beijing will not use Operation Epic Fury as an opportunity to attack Taiwan because Beijing is not looking for an opportunity to attack Taiwan.

07.03.2026 14:04 πŸ‘ 4 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Just FYI: Iran is a big country. And its population is 25% that of the United States. Imagine trying to bomb an area this large into submission.

07.03.2026 04:41 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

There's a new contest between Beijing and Washington: which will overplay its hand first, and most?

07.03.2026 04:07 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

This has all the earmarks of what was condemned as China's "wolf warrior" diplomacy.

06.03.2026 18:52 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Will he give the Nobel Peace Prize back to MarΓ­a Corina Machado?

05.03.2026 13:55 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes! Folks should stop fantasizing that the war in Iran has left China scrambling. See also:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

04.03.2026 22:24 πŸ‘ 32 πŸ” 3 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Hegseth doesn't know that the universe has four dimensions. His world has one, maybe two.

04.03.2026 13:42 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
Opinion | Why U.S. military officers need to go to Harvard. And Columbia. And … The civil-military-academic ecosystem is the foundation of American geopolitical power.

At a time when the Pentagon warns about competition with China, voluntarily pulling U.S. military officers out of the world’s most important research and policy institutions is not a show of strength. It is a strategic retreat. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

04.03.2026 12:36 πŸ‘ 82 πŸ” 19 πŸ’¬ 4 πŸ“Œ 0

Great quote on the PBS Newshour from former US diplomat Alan Eyre: "I think this administration is trying to justify the war the same way Jackson Pollock used to paint. You just throw a bucket of reasons up against the canvas and hope the result looks good."

03.03.2026 03:53 πŸ‘ 3 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!"

02.03.2026 17:17 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Hegseth said at the press conference this morning that Trump's decision to attack Iran was "unlike other presidents [whose] foolish policies of the past that recklessly pulled us into things that were not tethered to actual clear objectives."

02.03.2026 14:46 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"For they sow the wind, and they shall reap the whirlwind." Hosea 8:7

02.03.2026 14:06 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

"No president was willing to do what I am willing to do tonight."Β  There were many very good reasons for that.

28.02.2026 15:21 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Trump undoubtedly will push the very limits of what he can achieve in this regard, to include ignoring any SCOTUS decision against him.Β  He said publicly that a Democratic majority in the House would lead to his impeachment, and we should expect him to stop at nothing in an effort to prevent that.

27.02.2026 16:12 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If Trump has his way, it would preempt the November midterms.

26.02.2026 23:17 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

This will add to the drama of the Trump-Xi meeting in April.

26.02.2026 17:49 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Yes. He didn't mention China. Or any "actual events."

25.02.2026 16:39 πŸ‘ 2 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Trump challenged the Democrats to agree that "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not illegal aliens.” Here's an alternative: "The first duty of the American government is to protect American citizens, not make money for the president's family and friends."

25.02.2026 16:38 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Arms sales to Taiwan.

19.02.2026 13:40 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I was always skeptical of the claim that Xi and Trump didn't discuss Taiwan in Busan. They might have agreed to not say publicly that they had. But it doesn't matter, because Xi called Trump a month later, primarily to discuss Taiwan in the wake of Takaichi's statements about it in the interim.

15.02.2026 00:22 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 1 πŸ“Œ 0

Rubio in Munich: "Our great midwestern heartland was built by German farmers and craftsmen who transformed empty plains into a global agricultural powerhouse." But the plains were not in fact empty. Native farmers and craftsmen had been here for thousands of years.

14.02.2026 15:58 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

I keep hearing from politicians from both US parties about what "the American people want" or what "the American people want to know." But many of these are things that I do not want or do not want to know.

11.02.2026 00:16 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

Takaichi's election victory does not erase the fact that her comments about Taiwan in the Diet last November obfuscated and eroded Tokyo's one-China policy. That issue still needs to be addressed and persuasively clarified.

10.02.2026 15:47 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

People should stop talking and thinking about the Trump Administration's National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy as if Trump himself knows what they say.

06.02.2026 14:58 πŸ‘ 0 πŸ” 1 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0

If only the United States "can avoid China and Russia’s greatest mistakeβ€”treating partners as vassals rather than contributors to shared strength." Whoops! Too late!

04.02.2026 22:04 πŸ‘ 1 πŸ” 0 πŸ’¬ 0 πŸ“Œ 0