NFL Scenarios

Thank you to everyone for all of your support, and enjoy the playoffs!

Acknowledgements This site would not be what it is without the support of many people. Thank you to everyone who visits the site. Even without doing anything else but visiting, you help the site to be more visible which allows others to find it. Thank you to everyone who reaches out on social media. Whether it be to ask a question, to offer feedback on the site, or just to offer a kind word - you are what keeps me doing this year after year. I do what I do because I love scenarios, and I love teaching people. Thank you so much to all of our Patreon subscribers! We were able to keep the site ad-free for everyone all season thanks to your generosity. A special thanks to our generous Patreon Division Title Holders - Mersich Family, Sophie Hutchenson, osman ip, and Michael My family has put up with my addiction to scenarios even when I was writing blogs with 0 readers. Without their support and willingness to entertain my hobby, none of this would have been possible. This is not a small time investment, and they put up with this every season. Anyone who enjoys my work owes them accolades. Jeff Murray offers me endless support, motivation, and feedback. He makes the whole season more fun. Justin Mader is responsible for our new logo and all the fancy pictures on our social media. You’ve all seen my site and know that graphic design is not my talent, so his skills have been invaluable.

Kyle Standerfer & Ivan Urena have endless troves of historical knowledge and are always willing to look something up and share. The most interesting things I post in a season usually come from them. Ivan has a book on the history of pro football schedules, which you can order here (link to https://www.amazon.com/Pro-Football-Schedules-Complete-Historical/dp/0786473517) ! Thomas Donovan & Jordan Anstey are the reason this site isn’t constantly error-riddled. They are my de facto editors, finding every mistake and helping refine scenarios day after day. When you see changes happen after the initial post, you can wager one of them is behind the fix. Ray Lehnhoff is basically the entire reason this site exists. Without his technical expertise and support, I could never have made an operational site. Please support him by visiting his Playoff Predictors website (link https://v2.playoffpredictors.com/home) . It is the only NFL playoff machine that I can completely endorse as accurate. Joe Ferreira has been my friend and mentor since 2007, and has taught me everything I know about scenarios. He’s basically responsible for this entire community existing, as I don’t think we would have ever found each other if it weren’t for his old CBS message boards. I cannot express enough how much I and the entire scenario community appreciate his generosity with his time and skills.

And with 272 games in the books, it's my time to sign off. Just want to shout out some people first (links from images are in alt text). @jpmsportsstats.bsky.social @ivanurena.bsky.social @kylestan.bsky.social @ray.playoffpredictors.com

2025 Season Summary Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!

The final post of the season is up. It is the season summary, and contains the bracket (scores & times will be updated as the games complete), and draft order (order will be updated as teams exit the playoffs). nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...

1 DEN, 7 LAC @ 2 NE, 6 BUF @ 3 JAX, 5 HOU @ 4 PIT

The Final AFC Playoff Picture

BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention

With the BAL loss, BAL has been eliminated from playoff contention.

PIT has clinched their division title

With the PIT win, PIT has clinched the AFC North Division Title and the 4 seed. They will host HOU on Wildcard Weekend.

1 SEA 7 GB @ 2 CHI 6 SF @ 3 PHI 5) LAR @ 4) CAR

The NFC playoff field:

With the DEN win, the AFC playoffs are (mostly) set:
1) DEN - 1st round bye
7) LAC @ 2) NE
6) BUF @ 3) JAX
5) HOU @ 4) BAL/PIT winner

DEN has clinched homefield advantage and a first round bye

With the DEN win, DEN has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

With the PHI loss, PHI is locked into the 3 seed and will host SF in wildcard weekend.

With the PHI loss, CHI is locked into the 2 seed and will host GB in wildcard weekend.

With the LAR win, SF is locked into the 6 seed.

With the LAR win, LAR is locked to the 5 seed. They will travel to CAR in wildcard weekend.

Since 1978, TB has been eliminated all 5 times it has needed help in the final week to make the postseason (1998, 2008, 2010, 2016, 2025). During that span, only the Raiders have been eliminated more times when needing help in the final week without making the playoffs on any of those occasions (6).

AFC and NFC Seeding Scenarios (Updated after Sunday 1:00pm games):

I'm laughing harder and harder every time this repeats

CAR has clinched their division title.

With the ATL win, CAR has clinched the NFC South division title and the 4 seed. (Fixed from last post)

With the HOU win, HOU is locked into the 5 seed and will visit the winner of the PIT/BAL game in the first round of the playoffs.

TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.

With the ATL win, TB has been eliminated from playoff contention.

LV has clinched the #1 overall 2026 draft pick

With the NYG win, LV has clinched the 2026 #1 overall draft pick.

JAX has clinched their division title.

With the JAX win, JAX has clinched the AFC South Division Title.

It would, yes.

Live Week 18 2025 NFL Playoff Picture Clinching & Elimination scenarios, tiebreakers, seeding, and more!

Follow the rest of the regular season scenarios here! nflplayoffscenarios.com/2025/week/18...

4) TB clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL loss/tie
5) LV clinches the 1st overall draft pick with NYG win/tie.

Happy final scenario day! What to watch for in the early slate:
1) JAX clinches the AFC South division title with a win/tie OR HOU loss
2) HOU clinches the AFC South division title (and 3 seed) with a win + JAX loss
3) CAR clinches the NFC South division title (and 4 seed) with ATL win

CIN needed a win + CLE loss + PIT win (even though PIT was eliminated) to create a 3-way tie at 8-8 (CIN would win on best H2H, 3-1 over CLE 2-2, PIT 1-3). Otherwise, CLE would win the division. With PIT’s loss on Saturday of the final weekend, CLE won the AFC Central and CIN was eliminated (2 of 2)

Re: CAR/TB/ATL scenario: Another example of two division teams fighting for a playoff spot in the season’s final week that would have their playoff hopes decided by a division rival that was already eliminated was CLE/CIN/PIT in 1985….(1 of 2)

Seattle has clinched a first round bye and homefield advantage

With the SEA win, SEA has clinched the NFC West division title, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs

Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games.(research from @kylestan.bsky.social)

Once, kindof. Same situation, but chronologically backwards. In the final week of 1988, LAR beat SF to tie at 10-6. NO defeated ATL earlier in the day, giving SF the division on 3-way head-to-head. If NO had lost, LAR would have won the division on common games. (research from @kylestan.bsky.social)