@hausfath
"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes. Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC AR7 lead author / NCA5 author. Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/ Twitter: @hausfath
Not waving but drowning
When climate sceptics outsource their handwaving to AI the results are... predictable.
[With lovingly crafted 100% human MS Paint original artwork.]
diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/03/12/n...
The models still report the old Nino3.4 anomalies. If there is a straightforward scalar to get future projections into RONI I’d love to include it. Having to calculate the relative Enso3.4 region changes relative to the rest of the ocean fields in each ensemble member/model is a much bigger project.
A future to-do is to incorporate ENSO forecast uncertainty directly into the model (e.g. run future scenarios with the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the ENSO model plume)!
We can also look at how well this model predicted prior years (leaving out the year in question from the training data) based on data through March 10th. This will slightly overstate model skill, however, as future ENSO state is known with certainty in past years.
This means that 2026 will likely be somewhere between the warmest and fourth warmest year on record, with a central estimate of second. Before this update it was very unlikely (<5% chance) to set a new record (and beat 2024); now there is a roughly 11% chance.
I've updated the Climate Dashboard to use the new 11-model ENSO multi-model mean to help predict 2026 temperatures.
It caused the 2026 estimate to jump from 1.45C to 1.51C, reflecting the much higher likelihood of a strong El Nino developing: dashboard.theclimate...
I'd also note that the NOAA release references a set of CFSv2 runs that span Feb 27th to Mar 8th. If we look at the more recent runs (e.g. March 2nd to March 11th) they are notably higher:
Yep, particularly 2027, but there are a lot of regional teleconnections to El Nino at play as well (its not necessarily hot and rainier everywhere!).
I haven't done that analysis, but most of these models provide gridded SST fields that you could use to explore that.
Yep, unfortunately all the forecasts at the moment use the traditional Nino 3.4 region definition rather than RONI, and converting them to RONI is a bit beyond my ability, bit it would produce a more accurate picture given the limitations of ONI.
Nope, this year actually started in in slight La Nina conditions.
Not easily; some tools (such as IRI) archive historical forecasts: iri.columbia.edu/our-expertis...
For more, check out the updated Climate Dashboard: dashboard.theclimate...
And the full article over at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink....
This means that 2026 would still be unlikely to see a new global temperature record set (though its not impossible, as we saw in 2023!), but 2027 would be increasingly likely to be a record warm year.
If a strong El Niño develops, it would push up 2026 global temperatures and (particularly) 2027 temperatures given the typical lag between peak El Niño conditions in the tropical pacific and the global temperature response.
That being said, there is still a reasonable amount of spread in future forecasts; while nearly all model runs have an El Niño forming, there is still a chance it could be on the weaker end. We will know more in the next few months.
While there remains a big spread in models (and some models only run through August), more than half the runs show a strong (>1.5C Nino3.4) event developing by August and a very strong event (>2C) by the end of the year.
This is based on a collection of 11 different models (and 455 individual ensemble members) all updated since the start of March. I've put an interactive version of the data up on the Climate Dashboard here: dashboard.theclimate...
El Niño is coming, and it is shaping up to be a big one.
Over at The Climate Brink I've put together a compilation of the latest forecasts by different modeling groups. They suggest that we might see an event comparable in strength to what we saw in 2016: www.theclimatebrink....
NEWS: The Trump administration confirmed it bombed a girl’s school in Iran.
It's one of the most devastating military errors in decades.
Trump lied about it. Pete Hegseth gutted the office preventing civilian casualties.
175 are dead. Most were kids. Hegseth should be fired.
Not for this program, unfortunately.
Novel approaches with breakthrough potential: We continue to be on the lookout for step-change innovations that fundamentally outcompete existing technologies and offer a clear "unfair advantage" to highly scalable, low-cost carbon removal.
Building precise, scalable measurement tools for open systems: We need innovations—from soil pore-water sensors to marine mixing models—that accelerate the transition to automated, high-fidelity monitoring.
Determining how to add more alkalinity to the ocean efficiently and safely: We are looking for field-based empirical studies that characterize chemistry in the near-field mixing zone and identify engineering strategies to maximize alkalinity addition without triggering precipitation.
Increasing mineralization efficiency for large volumes of rocks: We seek the best ways to increase efficiency at scale — from rock pile architectures that effectively carbonate million-ton deposits with air to innovative pretreatments increasing mineral reactivity.
We just launched Frontier’s 2026 Innovation program! We will provide R&D grants and pre-purchases to address critical field research gaps and get emerging technologies out of the lab and into the field: frontierclimate.com/...
We are specifically looking for:
I also put together an interactive version here: claude.ai/public/artif...
Chinese data:
NREL Spring 2025 Solar Industry Update (China annual additions in GWac, 2011–2024, plus quarterly breakdown): docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25ost...
NEA 2025 full-year release via pv magazine (315.07 GWac for 2025): www.pv-magazine.com/2026/01/28/c...
Sure, US data:
SEIA 2025 Year-in-Review (43.2 GWdc for 2025): seia.org/research-res...
SEIA 2024 Year-in-Review (50.2 GWdc for 2024): seia.org/research-res...
NREL Spring 2024 Solar Industry Update (historical 2010–2023 US series from SEIA data): docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy24ost...
US solar installation: Down 14% between 2024 and 2025.
Chinese solar installation: Up 14% between 2024 and 2025.
Last year China installed more than 7 times more solar capacity than the US. So much for energy dominance...