Polling Canada Federal Model Update - Likely Seat Range:
🔴 LPC: 189-248
🔵 CPC: 69-115
⚜️ BQ: 17-26
🟠 NDP: 1-10
🟢 GPC: 2-3
(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)
- March 7, 2026 -
Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/the-opposi...
Polling Average In Ontario:
🔴 LPC: 49% (-)
🔵 CPC: 37% (-7)
🟠 NDP: 9% (+4)
🟢 GPC: 3% (+2)
(% Change With 2025 Election)
"Compared to Trudeau, would you say Carney's government has..."
Introduced minor changes: 43%
Stayed the course: 30%
Completely changed course: 28%
Read it for free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/has-mark-c...
(Models Available For Subscribers)
Federal Polling:
LPC: 47% (+3)
CPC: 34% (-7)
NDP: 9% (+3)
BQ: 7% (+1)
Others: 3%
Pollara / February 24, 2026 / n=1903 / Online
(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)
Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details:
www.338canada.com
"Do you think foreign trips for trade/investments in Canada should be a priority for the Prime Minister or should he do less of this and focus on other priorities?"
Should be a priority: 69%
Should not be: 31%
Spark Insight / March 6, 2026
Pierre Poilievre Favourable Polling Among:
18-34 Year Olds:
🔴 Unfavourable: 47%
🟢 Favourable: 44%
35-49:
🔴 Unfavourable: 51%
🟢 Favourable: 39%
50-64:
🔴 Unfavourable: 55%
🟢 Favourable: 33%
65+:
🔴 Unfavourable: 64%
🟢 Favourable: 27%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
Alberta - Approval/Favourability Polling:
Mark Carney:
🟢 Approve: 54%
⚫️ Disapprove: 40%
Pierre Poilievre:
🟢 Favourable: 51%
🔴 Unfavourable: 36%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
Do Canadians think Carney has changed course from the Trudeau years?
Do they think Mark Carney's government is a Progressive Conservative one?
What issues do Canadians believe have gotten better or worse in the last year?
Read it for free here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...
I've been saying for a little bit that the NDP getting completely wiped out depending on who becomes NDP leader is entirely possible at this point
Federal - NDP MP for Nunavut, Lori Idlout, has crossed the floor to the Liberals
Polling Average In British Columbia:
🔴 LPC: 43% (+1)
🔵 CPC: 37% (-4)
🟠 NDP: 12% (-1)
🟢 GPC: 6% (+3)
(% Change With 2025 Election)
"Should Canada continue as a constitutional monarchy for generations to come?"
No: 47%
Yes: 29%
Unsure: 24%
Angus Reid / Feb 26, 2026
Support For Removing Prince Andrew From The Line Of Royal Succession:
Support: 84%
Oppose: 7%
Angus Reid / Feb 26, 2026
Mark Carney Approval Polling In:
Atlantic Canada:
🟢 Approve: 71%
⚫️ Disapprove: 23%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba:
🟢 Approve: 56%
⚫️ Disapprove: 37%
British Columbia:
🟢 Approve: 58%
⚫️ Disapprove: 36%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
Federal Government Approval - Eastern Canada:
Quebec:
Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 31%
Ontario:
Approve: 67%
Disapprove: 33%
Atlantic Canada:
Approve: 65%
Disapprove: 35%
Spark Insight / March 6, 2026
Pierre Poilievre Favourable Polling In:
Atlantic Canada:
🔴 Unfavourable: 57%
🟢 Favourable: 35%
Saskatchewan/Manitoba:
🔴 Unfavourable: 48%
🟢 Favourable: 40%
British Columbia:
🔴 Unfavourable: 57%
🟢 Favourable: 33%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
"Carney has recently travelled to Mexico and India to work on trade and investment promotion for Canada. Do you think visits like these will..."
Deliver Benefits: 69%
Not Deliver Benefits: 31%
Spark Insight / March 6, 2026
Toronto - Mayoral Polling:
Chow: 44%
Bradford: 26%
Ford: 16%
Furry: 8%
Liaison / March 8, 2026
Pierre Poilievre Favourable Polling In:
Alberta:
🟢 Favourable: 51%
🔴 Unfavourable: 36%
Ontario:
🔴 Unfavourable: 65%
🟢 Favourable: 28%
Quebec:
🔴 Unfavourable: 52%
🟢 Favourable: 36%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
Most Important Issue:
Jobs/Economy: 18%
Trump/US Relations: 17%
Inflation: 11%
Healthcare: 8%
Immigration: 5%
Housing: 4%
Environment: 3%
National Security: 3%
National Unity: 3%
Debt/Deficit 3%
Nanos / March 6, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online
Preferred Prime Minister Polling:
Carney: 57% (+1)
Poilievre: 22% (-)
May: 3% (-)
Blanchet: 2% (-1)
Davies: 2% (-)
Bernier: 2% (-)
Unsure: 13%
Nanos / March 6, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online
(% Change With February 27, 2026)
Toronto - Mayoral Polling:
Chow: 44%
Bradford: 26%
Ford: 16%
Furry: 8%
Liaison / March 8, 2026
(Models Available To Subscribers)
British Columbia Provincial Polling:
CON: 47% (+3)
NDP: 39% (-6)
GRN: 10% (+2)
Others: 4%
Innovative / March 3, 2026 / n=605 / Online
(% Change With 2024 Election)
Check out BC details on @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/bc/
Polling Average In Saskatchewan/Manitoba:
🔵 CPC: 46% (-9)
🔴 LPC: 37% (+3)
🟠 NDP: 11% (+2)
🟢 GPC: 4% (+3)
(% Change With 2025 Election)
Mark Carney Approval Polling In:
Alberta:
🟢 Approve: 54%
⚫️ Disapprove: 40%
Ontario:
🟢 Approve: 70%
⚫️ Disapprove: 27%
Quebec:
🟢 Approve: 63%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
Polling Average In Alberta:
🔵 CPC: 49% (-15)
🔴 LPC: 37% (+10)
🟠 NDP: 9% (+3)
🟢 GPC: 2% (+2)
(% Change With 2025 Election)
The Island has been very Green-Orange-Red in recent Nanos polling
Another 220+ Liberal seat poll
(Models Available For Subscribers)
Federal Polling:
LPC: 46% (+2)
CPC: 33% (-8)
NDP: 10% (+4)
BQ: 5% (-1)
GPC: 5% (+4)
PPC: 1% (-)
Nanos / March 6, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online
(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)
Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com
Mark Carney Approval Polling Among:
18-34 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 62%
⚫️ Disapprove: 34%
35-49 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 67%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%
50-64 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 66%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%
65+ Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 62%
⚫️ Disapprove: 30%
Liaison / March 7, 2026
