chart showing Welfare spending as a share of GDP (left) and in real terms (right), by category, outturn and forecast: UK
How has last week's forecast affected the outlook for welfare spending?
There has been little change, and considering spending as a share of GDP it does not look out of control.
Find out more 👉 buff.ly/DqulMy0
chart showing Change in the number and proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs, by Parliament: UK
Child poverty is set to fall by 3 percentage points in 2026-27, primarily due to the two-child limit being abolished.
But in the following years, the child poverty rate will start rising again.
By the end of the decade, the projected rate is just 0.5 percentage points below last year.
Did you know you can get recordings of Resolution Foundation events straight to your podcast feed, so you never miss an insight?
Listen to 'Where is the UK economy heading?' here, for everything you need to know ahead of tomorrow's Spring Forecast ⤵️ buff.ly/osUaG9E
How can living standards stagnate, while people are working more?
@mikebrewerecon.bsky.social explains ⤵️
chart showing Average real household disposable income per person (2025-26 prices): UK
The Treasury says “by the next election people will be over £1,000 a year better off”.
This appears to be based on a comparison of RHDI per person in the final full financial year of the previous and current parliaments.
But two-thirds of this projected growth *has already happened*.
"I don't think that there's been a matching reduction in the expectations of the electorate, about what the state can do"
Last week, David Miles from the OBR spoke to us about the impact of long-term productivity slowdown ⤵️
chart showing Average Real Household Disposable Income per person, in 2025-26 prices: UK
What’s the latest outlook for living standards?
The OBR’s forecast for Real Household Disposable Income per person has slightly higher growth over the forecast period than forecast at the Autumn Budget.
But it's still not much to shout about, set to grow only 0.6 per year over the Parliament.
"It's a little too early to start writing your Autumn Budget forecasts"
Speaking on our podcast last week, @gilesyb.bsky.social considered the impact of the conflict in the Middle East, compared with the 2022 energy price shock.
Subscribe here the full discussion 👉 buff.ly/lJaDs3C
By the time the OBR published its forecasts on Tuesday, they had already been overtaken by global events.
In Friday's Top of the charts, Ruth Curtice looked at how the last week has shifted the economic and fiscal outlook for the UK⬇️
buff.ly/B4usYcq
"Youth unemployment is a problem, but inactivity is moving in the right direction at least"
On Wednesday, Dharshini David spoke at our post-Forecast event on the economic outlook ⤵️
chart showing Change in the number and proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs, by Parliament: UK
Child poverty is set to fall by 3 percentage points in 2026-27, primarily due to the two-child limit being abolished.
But in the following years, the child poverty rate will start rising again.
By the end of the decade, the projected rate is just 0.5 percentage points below last year.
The chart shows that childless Britons losing employment will see less of their vanished wages replaced by benefits than those in any other comparable country, aside from Australia and the US. Even for a lone British parent with two children, the so-called ‘replacement rate’ is 16 percentage points lower than the OECD average, representing the fourth-lowest level of relative support for such a family across the entire rich-country club.
The safety net for Britons is far lower than most of their counterparts.
Many other benefits systems around the world hardwire in a specific link between typical wages and general benefit rates, or what an individual's previous earnings and the payments they are entitled to.
More➡️ buff.ly/a300OG4
1. UC will soon be fully rolled out Thirteen years aer its introduction in 2013, UC will be fully rolled out in April. At this point, just under half of all children in the UK (42 per cent) will be living in families recieving UC. But despite its huge role in modern life, UC remains a source of anxiety for many. The Government must improve the system, and rebuild trust with claimants.
2. key problems remain Despite its long period of implementation, problems remain, like the five-week-wait for support, inflexible assessment periods, and the confusing structure of its online portal. But, there are aordable and fair solutions to all of these problems.
But technical or structural improvements need to be complemented by a fundamental ‘culture reset’ that puts dignity and respect at the heart of UC. The Government should work directly with claimants to deliver this possibly via the co-production of a Charter of Rights and retraining of staff.
4. which needn’t break the bank The sixteen policy recommendations outlined in the Foundation’s analysis would cost an estimated £400 million in one-off costs, and between £700-900 million in additional benefit expenditure each year. This marginal increase in the year-on-year benefit spend would be worth it to transform claimants' day-to-day experiences of the system.
April 2026 will mark a true milestone for the UK benefits system: the end of the thirteen-year rollout of Universal Credit that has brought together all means-tested working-age benefits.
This moment is an opportunity to consider how the system can be improved ⤵️
buff.ly/TjrE4OW
"If they're not awful and bloody, then they're not the right ones"
@gilesyb.bsky.social spoke to us about the difficult choices still facing the Government, as we discussed the aftermath of the Spring Forecast.
Subscribe to our podcast here 👉 buff.ly/lJaDs3C
chart showing Average real household disposable income per person (2025-26 prices): UK
The Treasury says “by the next election people will be over £1,000 a year better off”.
This appears to be based on a comparison of RHDI per person in the final full financial year of the previous and current parliaments.
But two-thirds of this projected growth *has already happened*.
What's missing from the Government's approach to growth?
@jamessmithrf.bsky.social, our Chief Economist, shared his perspective on our latest podcast.
Listen here, or search 'Resolution Foundation' wherever you get your podcasts 👉 buff.ly/lJaDs3C
By the time the OBR published its forecasts on Tuesday, they had already been overtaken by global events.
In this week's Top of the charts @ruthcurtice.bsky.social looks at how the last week has shifted the economic and fiscal outlook for the UK ⬇️
buff.ly/B4usYcq
"If they're not awful and bloody, then they're not the right ones"
@gilesyb.bsky.social spoke to us about the difficult choices still facing the Government, as we discussed the aftermath of the Spring Forecast.
Subscribe to our podcast here 👉 buff.ly/lJaDs3C
chart showing Proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs, with and without policy measures announced by this Government: UK
Child poverty is set to fall sharply in 2026-27, before rising slightly for the rest of the Parliament.
"Youth unemployment is a problem, but inactivity is moving in the right direction at least"
On Wednesday, Dharshini David spoke at our post-Forecast event on the economic outlook ⤵️
chart showing Welfare spending as a share of GDP (left) and in real terms (right), by category, outturn and forecast: UK
How has this week's forecast affected the outlook for welfare spending?
There has been little change, and considering spending as a share of GDP it does not look out of control.
Great conversation with @gilesyb.bsky.social and @ruthcurtice.bsky.social on this podcast. Do check it out. (Don't worry, we don't talk about the Spring Forecast for long - there's much more on where we are now and how economic policy might unfold over the rest of this year).
chart showing Left panel: Impact of tax rises announced this parliamentRight panel: Tax as a proportion of GDP, by forecast date
Though the pain of tax rise *announcements* is in the past, over 3/5s of them won't materialise until later.
Taxes are set to rise£43 billion between now and 2029-30, bringing the tax burden above 38 per cent of GDP for the first time, in an election year to boot.
By the time the OBR published its forecasts on Tuesday, they had already been overtaken by global events.
In this week's Top of the charts @ruthcurtice.bsky.social looks at how the last week has shifted the economic and fiscal outlook for the UK ⬇️
buff.ly/B4usYcq
1. UC will soon be fully rolled out Thirteen years aer its introduction in 2013, UC will be fully rolled out in April. At this point, just under half of all children in the UK (42 per cent) will be living in families recieving UC. But despite its huge role in modern life, UC remains a source of anxiety for many. The Government must improve the system, and rebuild trust with claimants.
2. key problems remain Despite its long period of implementation, problems remain, like the five-week-wait for support, inflexible assessment periods, and the confusing structure of its online portal. But, there are aordable and fair solutions to all of these problems.
But technical or structural improvements need to be complemented by a fundamental ‘culture reset’ that puts dignity and respect at the heart of UC. The Government should work directly with claimants to deliver this possibly via the co-production of a Charter of Rights and retraining of staff.
4. which needn’t break the bank The sixteen policy recommendations outlined in the Foundation’s analysis would cost an estimated £400 million in one-off costs, and between £700-900 million in additional benefit expenditure each year. This marginal increase in the year-on-year benefit spend would be worth it to transform claimants' day-to-day experiences of the system.
April 2026 will mark a true milestone for the UK benefits system: the end of the thirteen-year rollout of Universal Credit that has brought together all means-tested working-age benefits.
This moment is an opportunity to consider how the system can be improved ⤵️
buff.ly/TjrE4OW
Chart showing average real-terms gross household income from benefits among non-pensioner families, by whole-population income vigintile.
Benefitting less Looking across the poorest half of households, average benefit income rose by £1,900 a year in real terms between 1995 and 2010, before falling by £1,600 between 2010 and 2024.
Benefitting less?
The richer half of the country actually saw a bigger proportional increase in their benefit income (of 14 per cent) than the poorer half (of 4 per cent) over the past three decades, and the bottom quartile experienced a real terms fall in benefit income (of 13 per cent).
Chart showing proportion of working age adults who are caring
Britain’s ‘unsung’ army is the million people in poorer working-age households who now have full-time unpaid caring responsibilities.
The chart shows that childless Britons losing employment will see less of their vanished wages replaced by benefits than those in any other comparable country, aside from Australia and the US. Even for a lone British parent with two children, the so-called ‘replacement rate’ is 16 percentage points lower than the OECD average, representing the fourth-lowest level of relative support for such a family across the entire rich-country club.
The safety net for Britons is far lower than most of their counterparts.
Many other benefits systems around the world hardwire in a specific link between typical wages and general benefit rates, or what an individual's previous earnings and the payments they are entitled to.
More➡️ buff.ly/a300OG4
chart showing Annualised growth in real household disposable income per person, by parliament: UK
Living standards growth is set to be weak by historical standards for the rest of the Parliament, at just 0.6 per cent a year on average.
This would make it the second worst parliament for living standards growth, better only than the last one.
Get our full analysis here ⤵️ buff.ly/DqulMy0
chart showing Change in the number and proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs, by Parliament: UK
Child poverty is set to fall by 3 percentage points in 2026-27, primarily due to the two-child limit being abolished.
But in the following years, the child poverty rate will start rising again.
By the end of the decade, the projected rate is just 0.5 percentage points below last year.
