George Pearkes

This is really worth your time.

What the Challenger Layoff Tracker Really Measures Why announced layoffs often diverge from the government’s layoff data.

I started a substack! First piece looks at the Challenger layoff data compared to JOLTS.

Why did Challenger, but not JOLTS, show an increase in layoffs the last three years?

besttrousers.substack.com/p/what-the-c...

Yes but that doesn’t really help this situation where what you need is physical barrels ready for release.

though tbc, no matter what the Trump Admin had done, there was no way we'd be over 600mm bbl at this point.

The writer of this piece bought a small farm just north of Iowa City with her professor husband & has never run the farm herself. The land wasn't farmed at all from 2017 to 2020 because they couldn't find a tenant.

Yeah, I think this is a combination of 1) Trump Admin not caring 2) Congress not appropriating 3) infrastructure limitations.

$KSS missed comps and guided below estimates, was down 10% pre-market. But management reported the miss was due to winter storms (shaved 0.7%-pt off comps YoY, half of stores were closed) and are "pleased" with the start to the new fiscal year. Stock is +13% after the call.

Chart of SPR inventories 2020 -current

Net we are 204mm barrels below pre-Ukraine levels, having added back about 69mm barrels (nice) of the 274mm total withdrawals.

...barrels per month versus 4mm barrels/day outflow. Meaning replenishment is WAY slower than release. Then there were a series of physical infrastructure issues (Chris Wright blames Biden for this bc of how fast release took place, more likely is they were existing; those take time to fix).

ah okay I figured it out.

140mm of the 200mm repurchase was achieved by cancelling sales that had been mandated by Congress (pulling them forward). So physical barrels didn't re-enter the SPR but that was consistent with what Congress instructed.

Other problems: SPR could only take in ~3mm...

Yeah I am having to re-acquaint myself with the details here, give me a second

Biden-Harris Administration Makes Final Purchase for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Secures 200 Million Barrels at a Good Deal for the American Taxpayer The New Purchase of 2.4 Million Barrels Closes Out the Emergency Revenues from the Biden-Harris Administration’s Emergency Sales in 2022 that Calmed Global Markets and Protected American Businesses an...

Biden’s releases were paired with forward purchases. They sold 180mm bbl spot and bought 200mm bbl forward. I am not entirely clear on what happened with those deliveries but the initial trade was inventory-neutral. www.energy.gov/articles/bid...

“Zohran Mamdani is the most prominent observant Muslim in American life. He has made his religious identity a central part of his political identity, and he has vowed to stop ‘biting his tongue’ in the face of Islamophobic attacks,” Reihan Salam, a Muslim who is the president of the conservative Manhattan Institute for Policy Research, wrote in an email. “That gives him unique credibility and authority to speak out against the chauvinism, extremism, misogyny and racism that exists within Muslim communities and that has spilled over into violence again and again.”

why isn't the Muslim mayor taking this opportunity to talk about how all Muslims are bad?

Inside one of the wildest days the oil market has ever seen How one London trading floor coped with a record swing in prices

Inside one of the wildest days the oil market has ever seen ft.trib.al/XzoF29d

they have a massive ICE business....

Exclusive Meta acquires Moltbook, the social network for agents By Ina Fried (Axios) Meta has acquired Moltbook, a viral social network designed for AI agents, Axios has learned. Why it matters: The deal brings Moltbook's creators — Matt Schlicht and Ben Parr — into Meta Superintelligence Labs (MSL), the unit run by former Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang. Meta did not disclose Moltbook's purchase price. The deal is expected to close mid-March, Meta says, with the pair starting at MSL on March 16. Catch up quick: Moltbook's social network was designed to run in conjunction with a separate project, OpenClaw. OpenClaw was previously called Clawdbot and briefly Moltbot. Last month OpenAI hired Peter Steinberger, the creator of OpenClaw. That product is now being open-sourced with OpenAI's backing. Zoom in: Schlicht has been working on autonomous AI agents since 2023 and launched Moltbook in late January as an experimental "third space" for AI agents. Fun fact: Moltbook was built largely with the help of Schlicht's personal AI assistant, Clawd Clawderberg. Parr was a former editor and columnist at Mashable and CNET. What they're saying: "The Moltbook team joining MSL opens up new ways for AI agents to work for people and businesses," a Meta representative told Axios. In a blog post, Meta's Vishal Shah said existing Moltbook customers can continue using the platform — though the company signaled the arrangement is temporary. "The Moltbook team has given agents a way to verify their identity and connect with one another on their human's behalf," Shah says. "This establishes a registry where agents are verified and tethered to human owners." "Their team has unlocked new ways for agents to interact, share content, and coordinate complex tasks," he added. -0- Mar/10/2026 13:30 GMT

hahahaha of COURSE Zuck is buying Moltbook, OF COURSE. cc @ed3d.net

Good morning to all my F1 heads

*CHINA'S BYD EXPLORES ENTRY INTO F1, OTHER AUTO RACING SERIES

It seems to me the easiest way to calm fears about crude oil would be for the US Navy to actually execute a safe escort of an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz.

That they haven't done this yet is a tell, IMO.

wtf is wrong with you dude

Super useful rundown of how CES (aka the establishment survey used to produce the monthly nonfarm payrolls number) works, with some good ideas for improving its already impressive accuracy, by @ryandecker.bsky.social
www.nber.org/system/files...

Brent also rolled before WTI and backwardation is so steep the mismatched contract months made it look like the spread was narrower than it was.

ADP weekly estimates of 4wk change in private payrolls, expressed in '000s at monthly rates.

*ADP: US PRIVATE PAYROLLS ROSE AVG 15,500/WK IN 4 WKS TO FEB. 21

$AMZN is in the market with an 11 part USD bond offering an an 8 part EUR bond offering. Size is pretty punchy.

*AMAZON TARGETS $25B-$30B IN DOLLAR BONDS, €10B IN EURO OFFERING

For context they only had $66bn in long-term debt as-of the end of the year (though also $87bn of LT lease liabilities).

on

*US WON'T END IRAN WAR TUNITL ENEMY IS DEFEATED: HEGSETH

*IRAN'S IRIB: EXPLOSION OF AN OIL TANKER NEAR ABU DHABI

Ok but what if there’s a kind of innovative direct selling model. I get a percentage of the shares I sell downline, and you recruit others as well, and we all profit.

We have been down this road before

lol c'mon

*BILL ACKMAN'S PERSHING SQUARE INC FILES FOR US IPO

Not sure what this means but for context $T does ~$21bn in capex per year. Cost of revenue is $50bn/yr, total opex is $110bn. So these are pretty big numbers whatever they are.

*AT&T TO SPEND OVER $250B OVER 5 YRS TO ADVANCE US CONNECTIVITY
*AT&T HIRING THOUSANDS OF TECHNICIANS IN 2026 ALONE

matthew yglesias' "sweatshops kill a lot of people, but they also help people get shein tank tops, so it's impossible to say whether it's good or not" article but woke