$MSFT, $CRM & $ORCL are up an average of +3.5% since the US struck Iran versus the S&P 500’s -1.2% fall. In this video, we explain that users may be more likely to stick with proven existing services amid economic uncertainty. Watch below!
youtu.be/dvW-suzoeLw?...
In our latest video, we show that the clouds may be lifting for US large cap Software stocks. Hit the link below to watch! It is only 6 minutes long and well worth your time.
Why Software Stocks Are Making a Comeback youtu.be/dvW-suzoeLw?... via @YouTube
Large cap US software stocks recently had their worst 50 day stretch since at least 2021. Worse than the Fed rate shock in 2022. That's how much AI disruption fears have hit the group.
But the clouds may be lifting, watch why below!
youtu.be/dvW-suzoeLw?...
Investors feared AI would destroy Software companies.
But after a historic selloff, the biggest names in the sector are suddenly outperforming the S&P 500.
Watch why Software stocks may keep rebounding below!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvW-...
Software stocks are staging a surprising comeback.
After a near 3-sigma collapse, $MSFT, $CRM, and $ORCL are now outperforming the S&P 500 during the oil shock. Watch why & how it can continue below!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvW-...
$MSFT, $CRM & $ORCL are up an average of +3.5% since the US struck Iran versus the S&P 500’s -1.2% fall. In this video, we explain that users may be more likely to stick with proven existing services amid economic uncertainty. Watch below!
youtu.be/dvW-suzoeLw?...
2/2 ...The index can generate +8-10% returns from here without much multiple expansion. Better results will need valuations to return to record highs (22 – 23x). Either way, any macro shocks will need to be brief, or multiples may contract back towards the long run averages.
1/2 Even with the S&P 500’s recent pullback and upward estimate revisions for 2026 and 2027, the index still trades for 21.6x forward 12-month expected earnings. This is above the 5- and 10-year averages of 20.0x and 18.8x and reflects strong investor confidence in US large caps...
2/2 ...Financials, not Energy, were the day’s worst performing sector. Rates barely budged. In all, today was a nice break from recent volatility but oil prices must continue to decline for stocks to stage a more convincing and broad-based recovery.
1/2 Yesterday saw a dramatic reversal in crude oil prices, down 26% from their overnight opening highs, and a modest but still welcomed bounce for global/US stocks. Emerging market equities led (+2.0%), followed by the Nasdaq Comp (+1.4%)...
The $IGV / $SMH pairs trade recently hit a +4 standard deviation move in favor of Semis, but the ongoing oil price shock is forcing a speedy repudiation of the “AI quickly disrupts Software” stock market meme. This is the best ex of how narratives have changed over the last week.
While buying the S&P 500 on a VIX close above 27 has good odds of paying off over a week/month, which is why we often flag that number to you, a VIX of +35 offers an even better potential payoff based on the historical data.
Fed Funds Futures now show lower odds for 2 rate cuts this year than just a week ago. Inflation worries are, for the moment, more important than a weaker labor market.
Fresh volatility has squashed the “AI is going to kill Software” meme for now; $MSFT/IGV were up +4%/+8% last week. This is, in fact, just one example of the dramatic shift in market narratives over the last week.
$SMH $IGV
2/2 ...Previously strong sectors (Staples, Industrials, Materials) badly lagged the index. Sudden geopolitical/oil price uncertainty is forcing capital back to the US and its most liquid equities. Until the current crisis abates, this trend is likely to continue.
1/2 Last week was a case study in how shocks create sudden investment paradigm shifts. Sovereign debt yields were up across the board, and the dollar strengthened against almost every major currency. Rest of world stocks dramatically lagged the S&P 500...
Oil prices have broken out to fresh 1-year highs, and markets know to respect that price action. Equity market volatility is already elevated (VIX at 30), but oil’s momentum could easily take it higher (VIX of 35.0 is the next statistically important level).
Oil prices are climbing amid the US-Iran conflict, and that raises a critical question for investors: are you underweight Energy? Watch our latest video to find out and why it’s now critical to know.
youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?...
Whether you are over- or underweight Energy stocks could meaningfully impact portfolio returns in the coming weeks. Watch our latest video to see where you're at!
youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?...
DataTrek: "Oil prices signal the lows for stocks, not the ebb and flow of military activity." www.openingbelldailynews.com/p/stock-mark...
Oil prices are climbing amid the US-Iran conflict, and that raises a critical question for investors: are you underweight Energy?
Watch our latest video to find out!
The Most Important Stocks to Own Right Now youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?... via @YouTube
Whether you are over- or underweight Energy stocks could meaningfully impact portfolio returns in the coming weeks. Watch our latest video to see where you're at!
youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?...
Energy stocks are one of the few real hedges during an oil price shock. Now is the time to review portfolios and make sure their Energy exposure is properly set.
Watch our latest video to know!
The Most Important Stocks to Own Right Now youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?... via @YouTube
Our latest video reviews Energy sector weightings across major global & US stock market indexes. After years of underperformance, too many investors are underweight this group and, we suspect, many don't even know it.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mf_N...
Oil prices are climbing amid the US-Iran conflict, and that raises a critical question for investors: are you underweight Energy?
Watch our latest video to find out!
The Most Important Stocks to Own Right Now youtu.be/Mf_NgZywbks?... via @YouTube
The S&P 500 is delivering better average 100-day returns in the 2020s than the 2010s (+5.8%, +4.4%), but with higher volatility (standard deviations of 6.2/9.7 points).
Last week’s mutual fund/ETF money flows are consistent with the YTD data. Fund investors are bullish on everything (non-US stocks, bonds, commodities) except domestic equities.
In this video, we show how oil prices and US stocks reacted to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in Aug 1990 & Gulf War I in Jan/Feb 1991. The S&P troughed on the same day WTI peaked, long before there was a resolution to this geopolitical crisis. That's a key lesson for today.
youtu.be/4hNWNQRTqkU?...
Oil prices signal the lows for stocks, not the ebb and flow of military activity.
Investors need not be armchair generals to understand how stocks trade during periods of Mideast military conflict. The 1990 – 1991 experience shows that the S&P 500 bottoms the same day that oil prices peak. Watch below!
youtu.be/4hNWNQRTqkU?...
