Chad P. Bown

Trump’s tariff wars reshaped US-China trade – at what cost to American firms? US exporters lost tens of billions of US dollars in sales to China in 2025, economist says.

Trump’s tariff wars reshaped US-China trade – at what cost to American firms?

US exporters lost tens of billions of US dollars in sales to China in 2025

By Luna Sun

Trump’s go-it-alone approach toward China has not worked.

Any short-term deals where Xi orders a few more American soybeans, tankers filled with oil and gas, or even AI chips from Nvidia would fall woefully short of what Trump could achieve with a new, post-SCOTUS decision trade policy. [END/6]

US energy exports to China also fell back to pre-2017 levels in 2025.

Exports of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal dropped precipitously.

The lone bright spot was refined energy products. [5/6]

US services exports to China in 2025 remain well below peak levels of 2019.

China had agreed to better protect the IP of American companies, help stop the forced transfer of technology, liberalize markets for financial services, and sometimes even no longer require joint ventures. [4/6]

Trump’s second term trade war also decimated US farm exports to China in 2025.

Real agriculture exports fell to roughly 2018 levels, the last time the two countries were in a tariff fight.

US soybean exports to China fell to $3 billion in 2025, their lowest level since 2018. [3/6]

US real manufacturing exports to China fell by 7 percent in 2025 alone.

They landed more than 16 percent below 2017 levels.

Manufacturing remains economically important: In 2024, the sector made up 42 percent of US exports covered by the purchase commitments in the phase one agreement. [2/6]

China no longer buys US exports. Drawing the right lessons for the next Trump-Xi deal

MY LATEST [1/6]

👉 www.piie.com/blogs/realti...

EU delays ratifying US trade deal Move comes in response to Supreme Court ruling deeming Trump’s tariffs illegal

European parliament’s trade committee pauses work on ratifying last year’s agreement between Trump and von der Leyen until there was more legal clarity about the US tariffs, given Friday's Supreme Court decision.

by @andybounds.bsky.social & @bmoens.bsky.social

U.S. economy slowed in final months of last year, but continued to expand A report from the Commerce Department shows the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in October, November and December. That compares to a 4.4% pace the previous quarter.

Despite all of the tariffs of 2025, US imports of goods & services from the world increased, @chadpbown.com says.

Thanks, Joseph! It’s coming soon

Trump Says He Will Raise Global Tariff to 15 Percent

Trump said on Saturday that he would raise his new, global tariff to 15% (not 10%), a day after he took steps to replicate some of the punishing duties that had been struck down by the Supreme Court.

by @tonyromm.bsky.social & @anaswanson.bsky.social

SUPREME COURT REJECTS MANY OF TRUMP'S TARIFFS!!!

Held: IEEPA does not authorize the President to impose tariffs.

🤓 👉 www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...

Today is the last day to get 25% off when preordering our book from @waterstones.bsky.social

(Videos of Soumaya singing HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR will continue to run through Sunday)

📖 👉 www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-...

U.S. Exempts Indonesian Farm Goods From Tariffs In Deal The U.S. will eliminate tariffs on a variety of Indonesian food and agricultural goods as part of a trade deal signed between the two nations on Thursday. Under the deal, the U.S. will maintain a 19% ...

Under the formal US-Indonesia deal, the US will maintain a 19% tariff on most Indonesian products but provide duty-free access to food products such as coconut and palm oil that are some of its major exports.

by Gavin Bade

U.S. runs record trade deficit in goods, despite Trump’s tariffs policy The U.S. trade deficit for goods hit a record level despite President Trump’s tariff policy.

China, which accounted for more than 13% of all US merchandise imports in 2024, provided just 9% in 2025

So Trump's tariffs definitely mattered. But they mattered mostly for shifting imports away from China and toward other countries.

by @davidjlynch.bsky.social & @rachelsiegel25.bsky.social

Trade Talks will be back VERY soon.

do I fight it, or do I just lean in and put Tariff Economist on my business card

IMF calls on China to halve industrial subsidies International concerns have mounted over the impact of the country’s economic policies

China’s industrial policies “are giving rise to international spillovers and pressures”.

IMF estimates China spends about 4% of its GDP subsidizing companies in critical sectors, and said it should reduce that by 2 percentage points in the medium term.

by @arjunneilalim.ft.com & Thomas Hale

The Quiet Architect of Trump’s Global Trade War

Interviews with Greer make clear that he is a true believer in Trump’s plan to use tariffs to revitalize the United States manufacturing sector.

Profile of Trump's US Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, by @anaswanson.bsky.social

hmmm, i dunno tbh.

maybe short for Feb 2026?

After years of saying “it’s complicated" on our podcast, Soumaya and I finally put it simply and into a book.

How To Win a Trade War is now up for #WPreorder at @waterstones.bsky.social (25% off!!!)

📖 👉 www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-...

Trump Hails Japan’s First Batch of U.S. Investments

Japanese officials were eager to show progress before Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s US visit in March, at which point they are reportedly considering making several additional investment announcements.

by @anaswanson.bsky.social & River Akira Davis

US and Japan unveil first mega-projects under $550bn deal Oil, natural gas and synthetic diamond facilities worth a combined $36bn mark crucial progress on pledged financing

US and Japan unveil the first three industrial projects in America, worth $36bn, to receive financing under a $550bn deal struck last year that protected Japanese companies from the worst of Trump’s tariffs.

by @urbandirt.bsky.social, @davidkeo.bsky.social & Harry Dempsey

HOW TO WIN A TRADE WAR

by @soumayakeynes.ft.com (yes that is her in the video) and me

CLICK HERE TO SAVE 25% ON YOUR PRE-ORDER www.waterstones.com/book/how-to-...

1. Waterstones is a UK bookstore

2. If you live in the UK, watch this video, and then click on the Waterstones link to buy the book for 25% off

3. If you do not live in the UK, watch this video, drive to the UK, and then click on the Waterstones link to buy the book for 25% off

EVs must be 70% made in the EU to qualify for state support, Brussels says Draft legislation on local content by European Commission seeks to protect bloc’s manufacturing industries

European Union is planning to force EV manufacturers benefiting from state support to ensure that at least 70% of the components in their cars are made in the EU, as it seeks to protect the bloc’s industries from intense Chinese competition.

by @alicemhancock.bsky.social & Kana Inagaki

US carmakers spooked by Chinese rivals gaining foothold in America Executives on edge about a possible policy shift in Washington ahead of Trump’s planned visit to China in April

US auto executives are on edge over the possibility that Trump would cut a deal allowing the world’s second-largest car market to have the same cut-throat competition with Chinese rivals that has swept across Europe, south-east Asia and Latin America.

by Christian Davies, Kana Inagaki & Gloria Li

Taiwan!
El Salvador!
Guatemala!
North Macedonia!

SO. MANY. DEALS.

Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods Latest softening of levies comes amid persistent voter anxiety about affordability in the US

AFFORDABILITY SCOOP: Trump administration is reportedly reviewing his 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Plans may be to exempt some items, halt expansion of tariffs, and launch more targeted national security probes into specific goods.

by @aimewilliams.bsky.social & @andybounds.bsky.social

US and Taiwan sign trade agreement to seal chip investment Deal will reduce American tariffs on a range of Taiwanese food products

The agreement ends a disadvantage for Taiwan as the new US tariff of 15% puts it on a par with America's other important trading partners, like Japan and South Korea.

By @aimewilliams.bsky.social

www.ft.com/content/c7e1...