@petergarnry.gesdacapital.com
CEO & Co-founder at Gesda Capital. I’m passionated about equity investing and equity valuation. My vision is to show that active equity investing can work if set up properly. I was previously the Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank.
Governments want limit impact on growth, so they amortise it over the fiscal budget through price caps.
Taxes are likely not increased so the absorption is through higher govt debt and thus the cost is effectively paid by future generations and less by the current one.
Financial engineering.
Du har sikkert ret. Men hvis det er tilfældet så sidder kapitalen som død kapital i bankerne til super lav indlånsrente og så scorer bankerne rentemarginalen.
Uanset hvad så er en systematisk overopkrævning aconto en tæt på risikofri gevinst et eller andet sted i systemet.
Interesting move by VW. Where do they get their batteries from? Own production?
Tak for påmindelse 👌😊
Enig og der er selvfølgelig et forecasting problem i det.
Men jeg kan bare se en systematik i aconto langt overstiger endelig opgørelse over flere år. Vi taler om ca. 25% over. Min pointe er jo at det er risikofri profit leveret af kunder pga overopkrævning.
Aner det ikke. Mit regnestykke var bare min matrikel ganget op med antal kunder.
Så er det 1,6 mio. kr i risikofri indtjening som kan gå til dejlige lønninger mv.
Nogen der ved hvorfor tingene kører sådan i Novafos? Vil grundlæggende bare gerne forstå om det giver mening fordi jeg har misforstået noget…
Spørgsmål til danskere her på de. Blå sky…
Så Novafos opkræver konsekvent aconto ca. 870 kr for meget om året vs opgørelse.
Med 74.000 kunder og under antagelse af samme difference pr kunde, så indkræver Novafos 65 mio. kr for meget hvert år.
Placeres det til 2,5% i sikre statsobligationer 1/n
DBU fremstår på mange måder som en fortabt organisation.
Oracle, if they get through this, will have transformed themselves from a high margin, high ROIC and asset-light model to an asset mammoth with low margin and low ROIC…incredible
$ORCL
Oracle shares jump 9% on earnings.
Funny. They increase invested capital almost 100% in the first nine months while operating income increase 15% RPO is almost 10x their revenue.
Software companies are announcing different type of debt deals to fund shares buyback.
It adds demand for shares. It buys back shares under fair value. It lowers cost of capital.
This means that the negative hit to GDP growth from oil shocks in the future will be lower.
As electrification of the economy increases our economy will experience power shocks which differ from oil shocks.
They are more local/regional than global and more short-lived.
A new world is coming...
A new oil shock has arrived. It havoc will depend on the duration of this crisis.
But underneath this new oil shock a peculiar regularity is happening regardless of oil prices and technology. The global economy's oil intensity keeps falling systematically.
petergarnry.substack.com/p/oil-shocks...
Listened to Robinhood founder on Odd Lots. It sounds like a colossal battle is coming for neobanks/brokers (Robinhood, Revolut, Scalable, Nubank etc.)
They will all end up in many of the same arenas but from different starting places…
Interesting signal.
No, AI is not coming for your developer job, regardless of the nonsense the hype mongers are pushing. (I'm talking just about developer jobs—it obviously impacts other areas.) That's not to say the layoffs aren't real, but rather that the corporations are hiding normal corporate behavior behind
1/11
Software stocks rising 2% today. The physical world was apparently a bit messy and not straight forward after all…
Got the question today of whether I am nervous about the economy.
There are risks, I’m not naive, but high-frequency series like WEI is still holding up well…
www.dallasfed.org/research/wei
Will be repeated by the other hyperscalers
*ORACLE PLANS THOUSANDS OF JOB CUTS AS DATA CENTER COSTS RISE
My latest piece called "The return machine", which is a simple framework to understand expectations, current income, growth in earnings and future valuation for thinking about expected returns.
I round it off with a comparison between Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.
open.substack.com/pub/petergar...
It is a really good question!
Your point is exactly why it feels like a move of desperation and necessity.
But laying off this many people will have devastating consequences going forward for their organisation, even the leaders.
That it becomes so violent and abrupt is bad leadership.
Which means aggregate buybacks are also suffering in S&P 500
It must not fail* ;)
OpenAI raising $110bn just tells you that this AI bet cannot fail. It must fail. We will not allow another dot-com crunch. We will subsidise the whole thing…
Laying off 40-50% of your employees when you are profitable will like putting a dagger into the heart of employee loyalty.
It may never recover from such an action...
The interesting thing about the chart is, that the "efficient market" first vote in favour of Duolingo in an AI era, but then decides that it will go the same way as the local newspapers after the Internet was invented.
Finally some sanity on expectations vs priors
He finally looked comfortable in the PL