HSBC goes overweight global equities to the “max”.
“.. Yesterday’s price action is indicative of ‘peak fear’ to us with some of our positioning indicators flashing pandemic-type signs. We are now max OW equities .. prefer Asia & Europe the most, US the least.”
‘In 2007, BNP Paribas, Bear Stearns and HSBC blocked redemptions from U.S. subprime funds or warned that they were in trouble – a seemingly small risk that metastasized into a global financial meltdown.’
www.reuters.com/markets/priv...
“There’s more discussion than I’ve ever seen in my career about broker-dealers trying to assist and partner with hedge funds to short loans.” www.ft.com/content/52c4...
'Security of supply will be forced back to the top of the agenda for governments in the new world order, much as it was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. That will continue to reshape oil markets for a long time to come.‘ www.ft.com/content/b33b...
Billionaires’ % share of federal election spending in:
2008: 0.3%
2024: 19%
@nytimes.com #GildedAge
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/u...
‘The online retail giant said there had been a “trend of incidents” in recent months, characterised by a “high blast radius” and “Gen-AI assisted changes” among other factors.’ www.ft.com/content/7cab...
“Alibaba tested 18 AI coding agents on 100 real codebases, spanning 233 days each. they failed spectacularly. [It] turns out passing tests once is easy. maintaining code for 8 months without breaking everything is where AI completely collapses.” garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of...
DB Reid: In the US, the labour share of income is already at an all-time low, so again it wouldn’t take much to create a significant political backlash if AI further impacted labour…
‘Option gamma on the S&P 500 has turned negative, increasing the likelihood of larger downside moves in the index.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...
‘BlackRock gating HLEND is good for the private credit funding model, but probably bad for the marketing model of selling trillions of dollars of private credit to retail. The tradeoffs are a lot clearer now.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...
For China, Billions of Dollars Are at Risk From a Widening War www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/b...
“The risk of a 1970s scenario is rising. If there is another extended war, with oil prices going up significantly further, then the safe-haven status of government bonds are at risk, and with that, all assets.” www.reuters.com/business/ene...
‘First Brands creditors expect upcoming asset sales at the bankrupt car parts maker to bring in less than $200mn, leaving holders of its $12bn in debt nursing heavy losses.’ www.ft.com/content/db7b...
‘The employment data on Friday provided evidence of a weakening labour market just as the Iran conflict sparks concerns about a price shock. In the real economy and finance, negative factors do not net out; they compound.’
www.ft.com/content/4184... by @elerianm.bsky.social
“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever. To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...
‘Celebrities and influencers make sports betting look like a fast track to a new car or a Rolex. One friend told me that when he saw a DraftKings ad during an NBA game he thought, “It must be OK if Kevin Hart is doing it.”’ www.wsj.com/lifestyle/sp...
‘Senators recently inserted a new provision in their latest housing legislation that would require large single-family home investors to sell their newly built rental properties to individuals within seven years of completing them.’ www.wsj.com/economy/hous...
‘Nearly a third of Gen Z said they were putting money into sports betting and prediction markets. 8 of 10 of those young investors believed these riskier vehicles can get them to where they want to be more quickly than if they used traditional investment methods.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“The momentum trade had become incredibly crowded, with data on hedge fund positioning from GS’ prime brokerage desk showing that net exposure to medium-term momentum factor has reached the highest level in years and near the top of the range historically.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
“You cannot create liquidity from an illiquid asset class. Not enforcing withdrawal limits will create a first-mover advantage for early redeemers and a prisoner’s dilemma problem for the remaining investors.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...
‘As a share of global GDP, no nation has ever had a larger trade surplus, and that includes Japan during its 1980s heyday. China’s dumping offensive is deindustrialising rival exporters the world over, idling car factories in Thailand and textile plants in Indonesia.‘ www.ft.com/content/cb69...
‘Energy sector relative-valuations remain cheap, allocations remain near record lows, and technically speaking that’s a clean and clear breakout for energy stocks (even if it is a seemingly short-term boost from geopolitics).’ substack.com/@chartstorm/... by @topdowncharts.bsky.social
".. The last few years have been a steady exercise in market humility. 'Oil can’t go negative.' It did. 'Russia will always be a reliable supplier of gas to Europe.' It wasn’t. 'Hormuz is too important to actually stop.' Until it did."
- Morgan Stanley
good reminder for my VIX theorem. it’s not the fear index, as it’s commonly cited. it’s a temperature gauge for the market. and it was signaling we were running a fever well before the Iran conflict
‘The charts below highlight historical periods bearing a >50% correlation to the current 5-year pattern.’ www.dailychartbook.com/p/no-silver-... via @dailychartbook.bsky.social
NEW POST: ‘The Biggest Bagholder Operation In History’ thefelderreport.com/2026/03/07/t...
US private credit defaults hit record 9.2% in 2025, Fitch says reut.rs/4b4JWXm
‘If the currently private AI-ish darlings—SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks—were to go public at current valuations, and were added to the index, they'd instantly be a material chunk of the S&P 500. At 4.6%, they would be larger than the energy sector.’ paulkedrosky.com/n/c09b6fe8-a...
