Jesse Felder

Pimco Blames Sloppy Underwriting for Private Credit ‘Reckoning’ The rising strain in the private credit market is a result of years of sloppy underwriting standards in lending, according to Pacific Investment Management Co.

“There is a reckoning going on right now. It’s not just a crisis of confidence, it’s a crisis of really bad underwriting.” -Christian Stracke, president at PIMCO www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Commodity analyst Paul Sankey on CNBC, with an unnerving analogy:

"Some of us are looking at this a bit like what we saw with Covid, where the market seemed to be 'air-walking', regardless of what was clearly a very bad situation -- and then, suddenly, you know, collapsed when it all came home."

Five-byline alert: 🚨

“.. An ongoing military investigation has determined that the United States is responsible for a deadly Tomahawk missile strike on an Iranian elementary school, according to U.S. officials and others familiar with the preliminary findings.”

www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/u...

JPMorgan Restricts Private Credit Lending After Loan Markdowns JPMorgan Chase & Co. is restricting some lending to private credit funds after marking down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, the latest sign of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry.

‘JPMorgan Chase & Co. is restricting some lending to private credit funds after marking down the value of certain loans in their portfolios, the latest sign of stress in the $1.8 trillion industry.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

With all eyes on geopolitics, it’s worth monitoring non-headline items such as housing, private equity, and margin debt. Bear markets are often associated with credit contraction, or the perception of such.

‘With margin debt at record highs, any downturn in stocks risks turning into a sharper correction as leveraged investors are forced to sell into falling markets.’ www.apolloacademy.com/margin-debt-...

The trailer for EVERYONE IS LYING TO YOU FOR MONEY. In select theaters starting April 17th 🍿🤑🤣

The chart of Oracle free cash flow is fun.

@koyfin.bsky.social $ORCL

HSBC goes overweight global equities to the “max”.

“.. Yesterday’s price action is indicative of ‘peak fear’ to us with some of our positioning indicators flashing pandemic-type signs. We are now max OW equities .. prefer Asia & Europe the most, US the least.”

Private credit alarm bells echo 2007 subprime warnings Every financial market crisis is different, but they do rhyme, and parallels are beginning to emerge between the tremors now rippling through private credit and those in U.S. subprime housing that led...

‘In 2007, BNP Paribas, Bear Stearns and HSBC blocked redemptions from U.S. subprime funds or warned that they were in trouble – ⁠a seemingly small risk that metastasized into a global financial meltdown.’
www.reuters.com/markets/priv...

Goldman pitches hedge funds on strategies to bet against corporate loans Fears that AI advances will upend the software industry have driven demand for new ways to place wagers

“There’s more discussion than I’ve ever seen in my career about broker-dealers trying to assist and partner with hedge funds to short loans.” www.ft.com/content/52c4...

There is no return to normal on oil any time soon Even if the Iran war ends quickly, governments will need to prioritise security of supply

'Security of supply will be forced back to the top of the agenda for governments in the new world order, much as it was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. That will continue to reshape oil markets for a long time to come.‘ www.ft.com/content/b33b...

Billionaires’ % share of federal election spending in:

2008: 0.3%

2024: 19%

@nytimes.com #GildedAge
www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/u...

Amazon holds engineering meeting following AI-related outages Ecommerce giant says there has been a ‘trend of incidents’ linked to ‘Gen-AI assisted changes’

‘The online retail giant said there had been a “trend of incidents” in recent months, characterised by a “high blast radius” and “Gen-AI assisted changes” among other factors.’ www.ft.com/content/7cab...

“A spate of outages, including incidents tied to the use of AI coding tools”, right on schedule Some with “high blast radius”

“Alibaba tested 18 AI coding agents on 100 real codebases, spanning 233 days each. they failed spectacularly. [It] turns out passing tests once is easy. maintaining code for 8 months without breaking everything is where AI completely collapses.” garymarcus.substack.com/p/a-spate-of...

DB Reid: In the US, the labour share of income is already at an all-time low, so again it wouldn’t take much to create a significant political backlash if AI further impacted labour…

‘Option gamma on the S&P 500 has turned negative, increasing the likelihood of larger downside moves in the index.‘ blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories...

BlackRock Guards the Gates HLEND, is anti-ESG securities fraud, AI/consulting synergies and everything is she-curities fraud.

‘BlackRock gating HLEND is good for the private credit funding model, but probably bad for the marketing model of selling trillions of dollars of private credit to retail. The tradeoffs are a lot clearer now.’ www.bloomberg.com/opinion/news...

For China, Billions of Dollars Are at Risk From a Widening War www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/b...

Back to the 1970s? Investors brace for a return of stagflation Investors are now seriously considering the possibility that war in the Middle East could create a stagflationary shock, just as it did 50 years ago, when disruption to global ​energy supplies sent in...

“The risk of a 1970s scenario is rising. If there is another extended war, ‌with oil prices going up significantly further, then the safe-haven status of government bonds are at risk, and with that, all assets.” www.reuters.com/business/ene...

First Brands creditors reckon with dwindling chance of repayment Upcoming asset sales are expected to yield as little as $200mn to pay off debt pile of more than $12bn

‘First Brands creditors expect upcoming asset sales at the bankrupt car parts maker to bring in less than $200mn, leaving holders of its $12bn in debt nursing heavy losses.’ www.ft.com/content/db7b...

Stagflationary forces are building A weakening US labour market and financial strains come as the Iran war and surging oil prices spark concerns about inflation pressures

‘The employment data on Friday provided evidence of a weakening labour market just as the Iran conflict sparks concerns about a price shock. In the real economy and finance, negative factors do not net out; they compound.’
www.ft.com/content/4184... by @elerianm.bsky.social

The Long-Feared Persian Gulf Oil Squeeze Is Upon Us Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground to a virtual halt, unleashing the most severe energy crisis since the 1970s.

“In the whole written history of the strait, it has never been closed, ever. To me, it was not just the worst-case scenario. It was an unthinkable scenario.” www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Essay | I’m a College Student. Gen Z Sports Betting Is Wrecking My Friends’ Lives. Among my college peers, using apps to bet on sporting events has become a dangerous rite of passage. March Madness will only add fuel to the fire.

‘Celebrities and influencers make sports betting look like a fast track to a new car or a Rolex. One friend told me that when he saw a DraftKings ad during an NBA game he thought, “It must be OK if Kevin Hart is doing it.”’ www.wsj.com/lifestyle/sp...

Senate’s New Housing Bill Would Force Large Investors to Sell Homes The latest provision would require that these investors dispose of newly built homes within seven years.

‘Senators recently inserted a new provision in their latest housing legislation that would require large single-family home investors to sell their newly built rental properties to individuals within seven years of completing them.’ www.wsj.com/economy/hous...

Gen Z’s ‘Financial Nihilism’ Finds Outlet in Prediction Bets, Crypto Being financially “behind” is fueling moves into higher-risk and speculative assets as a way to catch up, according to a survey.

‘Nearly a third of Gen Z said they were putting money into sports betting and prediction markets. 8 of 10 of those young investors believed these riskier vehicles can get them to where they want to be more quickly than if they used traditional investment methods.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

‘Full-Blown Panic Unwind’ in Momentum Trade Is Signaling a Nadir It was one of Wall Street’s hottest trades, but a trifecta of troubles has ushered in one of the steepest drawdowns for momentum stocks in years.

“The momentum trade had become incredibly crowded, with data on hedge fund positioning from GS’ prime brokerage desk showing that net exposure to medium-term momentum factor has reached the highest level in years and near the top of the range historically.” www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Private Credit’s Gate-Crashers Are Forcing Funds Into a Brutal Spot The world’s largest alternative asset managers are confronting a painful choice: Block investors who want to exit private debt funds and deal with potential blowback, or honor the requests and betray ...

“You cannot create liquidity from an illiquid asset class. Not enforcing withdrawal limits will create a first-mover advantage for early redeemers and a prisoner’s dilemma problem for the remaining investors.” www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

China’s growth target is a global problem Beijing’s export offensive could be more destabilising than Trump’s tariffs

‘As a share of global GDP, no nation has ever had a larger trade surplus, and that includes Japan during its 1980s heyday. China’s dumping offensive is deindustrialising rival exporters the world over, idling car factories in Thailand and textile plants in Indonesia.‘ www.ft.com/content/cb69...