That’s a surprisingly rookie error for you, isn’t it? I was just advising a neighbour not to buy an Interrail pass this weekend as I thought the spring sale was imminent…
Also - these days I always get my passes from All Aboard where I can get 100% refund if it’s needed anytime.
The spring Interrail sale has rolled round - 15% off all passes bought before end of March.
(Amusingly for me, this has launched during the 7-day free cancellation period for some passes I bought on Saturday. I will definitely not *ahem* be acting accordingly.) allaboard.eu/interrail
Bit of a call out to fellow historians!
Anyone with suitable interest/expertise available on Monday and up for recording a podcast with me on "Rat Lines" - the post-war efforts to help Nazi's escape to South America and elsewhere?
Unfortunately my planned guest had to drop out #skystorians
Oliver Metcalfe, head of wind research at BloombergNEF. “Challenged by razor-thin margins at home, Chinese suppliers are leveraging lower-cost production and fast delivery to enter new markets and undercut established rivals across Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and Asia.” Outside mainland China, new additions also rose, increasing 17% year-on-year to 43GW. For the first time since wind power emerged as a major global force, India edged out the US and Germany to claim the title of biggest wind market outside mainland China. India’s climb is bolstered by complex auctions, which typically require developers to integrate multiple renewable technologies or oversize projects beyond their contracted capacity, particularly in wind. “India fully deserves its place as the second-largest wind market in the world.” said Siddharth Shetty, BNEF’s lead wind analyst for India. “The sector is reaping the rewards of complex auctions, pioneered by India’s clean power auctioning agencies in 2018. And this momentum is not fading. We expect wind build to continue at similar levels through the end of this decade.”
China and India making the smart choice while Europe bafflingly decides this is the perfect time to tighten the cuffs that are chaining us to ultra-expensive gas
Gas accounted for 29% electricity generation in 2025. That’s set to drop to 5% by 2030. Now is the time to encourage heat pump adoption, not slow it down.
Too many worst case assumptions get piled up (COP of 2.8, standard electricity tariff, no diversity applied to electricity supply etc.) and it makes a simple engineering challenge look impossible or unviable. It’s time that sensible assumptions got used for assessments.
This is a really weird take for the Chief Economist at Nestsa UK as it’s completely counter to Nesta’s work in speeding up heat pump adoption.
I presume that Nesta doesn’t agree with what you’re writing here?
@nestauk.bsky.social
I have been following this debate with some interest, and let me try to set out what Tim is saying here. If a heat pump costs £15k and lasts 15 years and over its lifetime saves 15*0.8tCO2e=12tCO2e then the capex per tonne is about £1,250.
Seriously. £15k if overnight, £12k at renewal. What a load of old tosh (and this from someone who claims to be an economist)
The short term moves are build more solar farms (as they’re quickest and cheapest power generation), move levies off electricity into general taxation, and support heat & industry & transport to decarbonise.
If the heating demand is big / dense enough, and if there’s a few potential anchor loads (usually large commercial buildings), then heat networks are the way to decarbonise heating at scale.
worthingheatnetwork.co.uk
Her trip to Ireland was ruined by this one question?? Gee, I wonder why…
I’m not adverse to a bit of gas storage to manage us through dunkelflaute periods (no 💨or ☀️).
But in the meantime let’s minimise gas demand by decarbonising power, heat and industry.
I see this as about as meaningful a signal of reality as share prices or Kalshi / Polymarket bets on mass death and suffering. I guess it's an accurate reflection of the feelings of credulous, rich and greedy people?
What’s weird about all of this is that Leunig’s not stupid (quite the opposite) but he’s trapped by his own methodology of “I’m here to read & think BIG THOUGHTS”. He seems to not consider things like “go meet some investors”. So it feels like this topic will end up like shale (ie fantastical). end
Unlike Tim, @chiefgeekad.bsky.social knows what he’s talking about.
If we decarbonise heating and massively reduce natural gas’s contribution to electricity generation then… we’d have more options.
“He is, of course, a serial liar & prone to espousing completely contradictory positions within moments of each other.” It is extraordinary to me that journalists continue to ‘analyse’ Donald Trump without adding this constant caveat. It does readers, listeners & viewers a grave disservice.
Heating oil prices in the UK have trebled in a week. 2 million homes, no price cap protection, no warning.
Heat pumps + solar are multiple times more efficient, don’t require an oil tank and oil deliveries and are an insurance against such frightening price spikes.
on May 01, 2003, George W Bush gave a "Mission Accomplished" speech on an aircraft carrier:
"Major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed"
the actual Iraq war ended in 2011
This is a really weird take for the Chief Economist at Nestsa UK as it’s completely counter to Nesta’s work in speeding up heat pump adoption.
I presume that Nesta doesn’t agree with what you’re writing here?
@nestauk.bsky.social
Eight additional new offshore wind farms to be built by 2031 in Britain
The government’s aiming for gas to make up <5% of power generation by 2030, and has massive windfarms in the pipeline which will help deliver that.
We also need to work on scaling up heat decarbonisation NOW so that can be the focus when we achieve clean power 2030.
Yeah sure - but electricity isn’t going to be 100% gas powered the entire time that the heat pump is being used. Even the marginal additional electricity demand to power the heat pump isn’t going to be 100% gas.
Looks like Tim is intentionally picking the worst option to suit his message.
The great energy economist speaks!
(And no, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Heat pumps don’t cost £12k at renewal.
I wonder whether he’s made similar mistakes through all his energy economics work? 🤔)
The great energy economist speaks!
(And no, he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. Heat pumps don’t cost £12k at renewal.
I wonder whether he’s made similar mistakes through all his energy economics work? 🤔)
All anyone is discussing is how fast gas supply & gas infrastructure can be expanded to meet AI demand. You will not hear the word "climate" uttered in any of those rooms; none of those guys are even pretending to give a shit any more. Boom times, boom mentality.
Chart 4.5 Gas demand for electricity generation, 1998 - 2024 A sharp dip in 2020 was the result of strong renewable output and decreased demand, due to the COVID-19 pandemic Electricity generation 100฿ 50 Gas demand for electricity generation picked up in the 90s overtaking coal for the first time in 1999 Sharp declines in 2023 and 2024 were the result of high electricity imports Of which gas 0 xm Between 1998 and 2024 gas demand for electricity generation has been generally declining, as total generation has reduced and renewable generation increased. However, because gas is generally the marginal fuel, demand remains variable and is influenced by numerous factors. Gas demand for generation picked up in the 90s overtaking coal for the first time in 1999. This reversed between 2012 to 2015 when an oversupply in the US reduced coal prices during a period of relatively higher gas prices, making coal more competitive than gas for electricity generation. Since 2016, demand for generation has been steadily declining, with a sharp contraction in 2020 due to strong renewable output and low demand, the latter a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Sharp declines were also seen in 2023 and 2024 due to increasing electricity imports when high gas prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict decreased the price differential between generation and imports. For more information about electricity see Chapter 5.
Eight additional new offshore wind farms to be built by 2031 in Britain
Emissions saved with 1 MWh of zero-carbon electricity a cross sectors
Gas was only responsible for 29% of electricity generation last year. That doesn’t sound to me like “electricity generation is over reliant on gas”.
We are continuing to massively decarbonise electricity. We also need to decarbonise heating.
(My reply to Tim)
Heat pumps don’t cost £12k at renewal. I’m sorry - but you just don’t know what you’re talking about here.
Once a lower temp heating system has been installed, then the hard work (£) has been done. The HP unit needing to be replaced does not cost £12k.
Paging @heat-geek.bsky.social.
