Latest posts tagged with #AAII on Bluesky
#AAII survey took a big time downturn this week. Bulls down slightly 33.1 -> 31.9%, but bears up huge from 35.5% -> 46.4%. Last time we had this many bears and this much of a spread between the two? November 2025 swing low for $SPX.
3/3 Oil futures touched $120 (3/9/26), then reversed sharply. IEA will gradually release record 400 million barrels from its members’ SPRs. Reliance-India will invest in a new shale oil (light/sweet) refinery in Brownsville, TX.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3After failed negotiations w/Iran, bombing by US & Israel started. Lot of top Iranian leadership was wiped out. Iran’s retaliations against US interests in Middle East were widespread but targeted. US market reaction was muted.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 Supremes overturned tariffs under emergency powers (IEEPA); replacement tariffs were announced. US trading partners are reviewing trade deals yet to be ratified. President’s longest SOTU (108 min) focused on domestic issues.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 Many global issues remain on hold – they haven’t been resolved nor gone away. US-Iran tensions may be flaring up, but talks continue. AI/tech news is coming out of 4th AI Summit in India (previous in UK, S Korea, France).
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 US cyclicals leading, growth suffering. Debt-fueled AI growth a concern. AI is hurting software & financials. There is huge volatility in gold, silver & cryptos. Japan rallied after elections strengthened PM Takaichi’s hand.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 ‘Twas a short DC shutdown, but gov data will be delayed. US-Iran tensions are lower as talks continue. India has trade deals w/ UK, EU & US. Gold & silver are very volatile. Media is speculating on Powell-Fed vs Warsh-Fed.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2417/th...
Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75%. Gold:silver ratio in mid-40s is well below average 65. There may be a partial shutdown in DC. US-Iran tensions are very high. India now has trade deals with UK & EU while that with US remains elusive
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 Lot of news & frank speeches from WEF-Davos – a compromise emerged on Greenland. Rallies (2024- ) in gold (+11.9% YTD) & silver (+30.3% YTD) continued. Bonds fell on news from Japan (snap elections, interest rates).
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 Active global hot spots are Ukraine, Gaza, Venezuela, Iran. New Iran-related sanctions coming. Gold & silver overcame the negative effects of the annual rebalancing of commodity indexes. DOJ is investigating Fed Chair Powell.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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3/3 Venezuela revealed the new US approach of talking loudly & carrying a big stick; there are worries in Lat Am & Europe. Precious metals rallied ahead of rebalancing of 2 commodity indexes 1/8/26- that may be negative for gold & silver.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
tinyurl.com/mr4755ar
3/3 After 3rd good year for stocks, consensus now is for 4th good year. Sentiments & indicators are neutral. Year ended with a bang in precious metals & a thud in cryptos. ME investors are players in both precious metals & cryptos.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2371
3/3 Delayed jobs & inflation reports used questionable assumptions. Strong Q3 GDP was from AI capex. ACA prem subsidy is a tax credit & the vote will be in 2026. Regional Fed Bank Presidents were reappointed in December for 5-yr terms.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2359
3/3 2 jobs reports were confusing; unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. CPI later in AM (est +3.1%, core +3.0%). ACA premium subsidy extensions will finally be voted on in the House; without extensions, some ACA premiums may double.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2349
3/3 Fed fund rate cut -25 bps to 3.50-3.75% in a split 9-3 vote, bank reserves rate is 3.65%, discount rate is 3.75%. A new QE was started for buying T-Bills & T-Notes (up to 3 yr maturities). Futures reinvestments in Treasuries.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2340
3/3 FOMC is expected to cut rates on Dec 10. IRS Math Act requires more error details & remedies in IRS letters. Vanguard caved in on cryptos & that provided support to falling cryptos. December is a good month for TLH & tax planning.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2330
3/3 Speculative assets have sold off. Cryptos are in bear territory. Several AI & tech stocks are down sharply. Broad indexes aren’t showing major damage yet. Another round of talks to end Russia-Ukraine war are going on.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2318
3/3 It will take time to fully restart US Gov. Losses for hourly federal workers are permanent. Late gov reports: jobs, Nov 20 (today); PPI, Nov 25. There are more exceptions to tariffs on food items & more trade deals are coming.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2308
#AAII survey took a decidedly bearish turn this week, but the #NAAIM Exposure Index remains in fairly constructive territory here. Currently sitting around 88% allocation and those are bull market numbers!
#AAII survey getting dangerously close to some bearish values here. We're at 49% bears and anything over 50%, along with a spread of 20% bears over bulls, would put the AAII survey into a similar configuration to Feb 2025, Jan 2022...
3/3 Supremes are handling several cases involving Administration. The longest DC shutdown has ended. Yearend reminders: TLH, RMDs, QCDs, donations, 529 transactions, 401k/403b contributions, Roth Conversions, gifts, tax w/h.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2300
3/3 Supremes are reviewing tariffs under emergency orders. DC shutdown is now the longest in history. More troubles surfaced in private-credit market. Democrats had victories in a handful of regional elections.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2291
3/3 Fed fund rate cut -25 bps to 3.75-4.00%, bank reserves 3.90%, discount rate 4.00%. Beyond Dec 1, QTs for Treasuries & MBS will stop. This shutdown may soon be the longest. About 1-yr trade truce with China after Trump-Xi meeting.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2278
3/3 CPI 10/24/25 (est +3.1%). Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations initiated by US are now OFF & more sanctions have been imposed on Russia; violators may face secondary sanctions. US trade talks with China & India are stop & go.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2268
3/3 Israel-Hamas fragile peace deal, phase 1 has begun. Delayed CPI on 10/24/25 – it’ll affect SSA COLA (2026), & I-Bond & TIPS variable rates. Other updates delayed by DC shutdown – Medicare info during OEP; Fed TSP G Fund rate.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2257
3/3 US Government shutdown has been for 1 week (10/1/25- ). Government stats are delayed. Some furloughed federal employees may not receive backpay on return. Federal midweek payrolls will be affected.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2249
3/3 US Government shutdown started on 10/1/25. There is US-Israel proposal for peace in Middle East. There are no active peace talks now for Russia-Ukraine war. Supremes scheduled hearing for Fed Governor Cook case in 01/2026.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2235
3/3 SEC has relaxed its approval criteria for crypto ETFs. FINRA is proposing rules that will make day-trading easier. Private-equity/credit is coming to 401k/403b. Investors will have to assess the risks arising from these changes.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2223
AAII and BetterInvesting Join Forces to Empower Individual Investors in Financial Education #United_States #Troy #Financial_Education #BetterInvesting #AAII
3/3 Fed cut fed fund rate by -25 bps to 4.00-4.25% range, as expected. Market expectations are for -25 bps cuts in October & December. 2-yr Treasury is at 3.5%.
#AAII #CNN #Sentiment
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