As promised, here is the verifying period of what ended up being Tropical Storm #Melissa from #AL98.
Yet another example of ECMWF failing to depict #TC genesis until the very last minute. 🤦🏻♂️
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#AL98
Latest posts tagged with #AL98 on Bluesky
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Posts tagged #AL98
#Invest98L now 50mph #tropicalstorm #melissa to peak at =>80mph C1 #Hurricane
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic E #Cuba to begin preps now!
#Bahamas #TurksandCaicos to watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Tropicalstormmelissa #HurricaneMelissa
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#Invest98L now #tropicalstorm #melissa
More details at 11AM EDT
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Cuba #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos interests to begin preps now!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #Tropicalstormmelissa
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D143 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
#Invest98L has 100% chance to be TC in 2 and 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Cuba #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos interests to Watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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D42 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
#Invest98L has 90% chance to be TC in 2/7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras #Cuba to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #13L #PTC13 #TD13
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KEY MESSAGES
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea #Invest98L #PTC13 #TD13 #13L #Jamaica #Cuba #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #CaymanIslands #PuertoRico #PRwx #Nicaragua #Honduras #Bahamas #TurksandCaicos
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Here are the 2pm EDT Key Messages for the tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea (#AL98). Likely to become a tropical depression or storm over the next few days. There remains significant track & intensity uncertainty for the system later this wee... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980337261297430909
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D142 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
#Invest98L has 70% chance to be TC in 2 days, 90% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras #Cuba to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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⚠️ Tropical wave #AL98 in the eastern Caribbean now has an 80% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone as it slows and moves west toward the central Caribbean.
🌀 Prepare for potential rough seas and changing conditions. #AL98 #Caribbean #MaritimeSafety
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8am EDT 20 Oct -- We continue to monitor a tropical wave (#AL98) in the eastern Caribbean which has a high chance (80% 🔴) of tropical cyclone development over the next few days, as it slows down & moves into the central Caribbean. Latest at... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1980254407699628536
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D142 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
#Invest98L has 50% chance to be TC in 2 days, 80% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras interests to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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D141 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
#Invest98L has 30% chance to be TC in 2 days, 70% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras interests to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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TROPICS: Per the National Hurricane Center, there is now a "high" likelihood for tropical development this week as Invest #98L moves into the Caribbean! As organization occurs, uncertainty still remains high in the eventual path of such a system.
#Tropics #AL98 @live5weather.bsky.social
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Another pre-genesis case, another case of the #ECMWF struggling in the tropics to due to cumulus scheme induced amplified gravity waves all over its domain.
Like we did for pre #Jerry, let's check back in 2-3 days to see how this model solution performs with #AL98.
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D141 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
#Invest98L has 10% chance to be TC in 2 days, 60% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras interests to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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8am EDT 19 Oct - NHC is monitoring a tropical wave (#AL98) moving over the Windward Islands today. Heavy rainfall & gusty winds anticipated as it moves through, but it's fast motion is forecast to limit development over the next day or two. Th... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1979882031921115324
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D141 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2amm EDT
#Invest98L has 10% chance to be TC in 2 days, 50% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua #Honduras interests to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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D140 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
AOI now #Invest98L has 10% chance to be a TC in 2 days, 40% in 7 days
#Jamaica #Haiti #DominicanRepublic #Caymanislands #Nicaragua to Watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Melissa #Al98 #98L #Honduras #Hispaniola #CaribbeanSea
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#18Oct | 14:51 HLV: La Onda Tropical 48, la cual se le ha asignado el código de investigación #AL98, se irá desplazando rápidamente hacia el oeste, alcanzando el Mar Caribe Central a mediados de la próxima semana antes de que el sistema pierda velocidad significativamente.
Las condiciones podrían..
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10/18 2pm EDT: Invest #AL98 will move quickly westward, reaching the Central Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week, before the system slows down significantly. Conditions could become more favorable for development over the central Caribbea... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1979615514822648283
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D138 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
AOI 2 in N ATL has 10% chance over the #GulfStream to develop into a TC in 2 and 7 days and should be no threat to land!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Al99 #99L #Invest99L #Melissa #Nestor #Al98 #98L #Invest98L
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D138 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
AOI 1 in MDR has 10% chance to be TC in MDR in 2 days, 30% in 7 days; #LesserAntilles #Hispaniola #Jamaica #Caymanislands #Nicaragua interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Al98 #98L #Invest98L #Melissa
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D138 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
New AOI in MDR has 20% chance to be TC in #CaribbeanSea in 7 days; interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #tropicswx #Blueskywx #hurricaneseason #Al98 #98L #Invest98L #Melissa #Jamaica #Haiti #CaymanIslands #DominicanRepublic #Hispaniola #Nicaragua #Honduras
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D76 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
#Invest98L has no chance to be TC
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #TXwx #STXwx #RGVwx #AL98 #98L #Fernand
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D76 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 1110am EDT
#Invest98L has 20% in 2/7 days in W #Gulfofmexico/ #GulfofAmerica to be TC
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #TXwx #STXwx #RGVwx #AL98 #98L #Fernand #Tamaulipas #Brownsville #McAllen #Harlingen #Matamoros #Mexico #Texas
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D75 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8PM EDT
#Invest98L has 50% in 2/7 days in W #Gulfofmexico/ #GulfofAmerica to be TC
NE #Mexico #Texas to watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #TXwx #STXwx #RGVwx #AL98 #98L #Fernand #Tamaulipas #Veracruz #Brownsville #Tampico #Matamoros
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2pm CDT 8/14: Showers & thunderstorms have increased with an area of low pressure (Invest #AL98) over the Bay of Campeche. The low is forecast to move toward the coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by late Friday, and it has a medi... https://x.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1956069498320027965
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D75 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2PM EDT
AOI 1 now #Invest98L has 40% in 2/7 days in W #Gulfofmexico/ #GulfofAmerica to be TC
NE #Mexico #Texas to watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #TXwx #STXwx #RGVwx #AL98 #98L #Fernand #Tamaulipas #Veracruz #Brownsville #Tampico
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D74 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8PM EDT
AOI 1 has 20% in 2 and days in SW #Gulfofmexico/ #GulfofAmerica to be TC
E #Mexico #Texas to watch closely!
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #TXwx #STXwx #RGVwx #Invest98L #AL98 #98L #Fernand #Tamaulipas #Veracruz #Brownsville #Tampico
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