#BlueWizards

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

13 hours ago

Trump’s Brazen Alignment With Russia I said within a day or two of the Iran war’s opening that it would hand Russia a windfall. That was not clairvoyance. It was method.

Dear #BlueWizards, It is now so obvious that Trump-Iran helps Russia. Even those who are bad at analysis can see it clearly now.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/trumps-braze...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 day ago

How the West Survives After Pax Americana Kyle and Vaush are right about the diagnosis and wrong about the horizon.

Dear #BlueWizards, I fill in the blank for @kylekulinskishow.bsky.social and @vaush.gg.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/how-the-west...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 days ago

The Geometry of Miscalculation in the Iran War Strategic miscalculation is usually discussed as if it were obvious at the moment a decision is made. Analysts look at a war that went…

Dear #BlueWizards, With my latest simulation work, I try to answer the miscalculation question wrt the Trump-Iran war.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/the-geometry...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 days ago

Why Didn’t the Trump Administration Sell the Iran War to the American Public? Was the Trump administration simply incompetent? That is the question most analysts implicitly ask when they notice the strange sequencing of the Iran war. The United States moved forces into the Middle East. Tankers, naval assets, and supporting logistics were positioned to support strikes. Operational readiness clearly existed. Yet the administration made almost no effort to prepare the American public for a major war.If this conflict had been planned jointly with Israel — as many commentators

Dear #BlueWizards, At risk of beating a dead horse, I make sense of why Trump didn't sell the Iran war to the American public.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/why-did...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 days ago

Understanding Netanyahu’s Place Within the Axis of Authoritarians History is being flattened, and once that happens the causal structure disappears. Operation Spider’s Web on June 1, 2025 was not just another successful Ukrainian strike. It hit Russia’s strategic av...

Dear #BlueWizards, People keep getting the axis of authoritarians wrong, and not just Trump's place, but also Netanyahu's.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/underst...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 days ago

Meta Analysis: Recalculating the War Analyst Board for 2026 The analyst board has to be recalculated for 2026. For too long the commentary ecosystem surrounding the wars in Ukraine and Iran has been padded with analysts who either misunderstand the structure o...

Dear #BlueWizards, After revising the list for 2026, our own @realjakebroe.bsky.social is now the world's top war analyst. Congrats!

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/meta-an...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 days ago

Dissolving Anders Puck Nielsen’s "Nuanced" Strawman Argument Strategic analysis fails when it begins by asking the wrong question. In his latest video, Anders Puck Nielsen constructs a simplified version of the Trump–Putin debate and then proceeds to dismantle ...

Dear #BlueWizards, @anderspucknielsen.dk's latest analysis of Trump-Putin totally misses the boat.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/dissolv...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

4 days ago

Part 3: How the Iran War Weakens the United States and Strains Support for Ukraine Wars do not merely consume men and machines. They consume attention, political will, and the finite industrial output of nations. When a state enters multiple conflicts simultaneously, the decisive qu...

Dear #BlueWizards, Make no mistake, Trump is wasting our weapons in Iran in order to make it harder for us to support #Ukraine.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/part-3-...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

4 days ago

Part 1: Who Drove the 2026 Iran War? The question is simple: how do we know who is actually driving an event in asymmetric politics? Not by listening to speeches. Not by…

Dear #BlueWizards, When you are dealing with asymmetric warfare, look at who benefits if you want to see who is in the driver's seat.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/part-1-who-d...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

4 days ago

Part 2: Why Paul Warburg Is Asking the Wrong Question About the Iran War Paul Warburg’s analysis of the 2026 Iran war begins from a seemingly reasonable premise: if the war ultimately weakens Russia’s long-term…

Dear #BlueWizards, @paulwarburg.bsky.social continues to ask the wrong questions about the Iran war. Regime security is what matters.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/part-2-why-p...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

6 days ago

What Minimax Really Means, and Why Paul Warburg’s Latest Analysis Misses It Paul Warburg’s latest analysis of the Iran war and global oil prices is useful for one reason above all others: it gives us a clean…

Dear #BlueWizards, @paulwarburg.bsky.social's latest Iran analysis misses the mark - probably because he doesn't understand minimax.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/what-minimax...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 week ago

Warburg’s Iran Analysis Mistakes Narrative Selection for Strategic Synthesis Paul Warburg’s latest analysis on the U.S. war with Iran has an obvious surface strength. He is trying to resist the stupidity of instant…

Dear #BlueWizards, Sadly, @paulwarburg.bsky.social's latest Iran/Ukraine/Trump analysis isn't as good as he thinks it is.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/warburgs-ira...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 week ago

There Are Zero Reasons to Believe an Iran War Helps the United States in Any Way Wars are sold as tools. They are rarely tools. They are systems — self-feeding machines that convert political impulse into cascading risk…

Dear #BlueWizards, In no scenario does Trump's war with Iran help the USA in any way. It only harms us.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/there-are-ze...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 week ago

The Iran War Exposes the Trump Administration’s Terminal Phase Wars are sold with arguments. Terminal regimes sell them with a swarm of lies.

Dear #BlueWizards, The countless lies vis-a-vis the Iran war exposes the Trump admin's terminal phase - its most dangerous phase.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/the-iran-war...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 week ago

Vexler May Be Right About Trump’s Psychology — but That Alone Leaves Out the Strategy Let’s begin with the only posture that works reliably in asymmetric conflict: minimax.

Dear #BlueWizards, @vladvexler.bsky.social "getting" Trump's tiny little brain correct still leaves room for strategy.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/vexler-may-b...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 week ago

What Kurzin’s Analysis Means for Putin Per the Raymond Method, we begin with the only posture that works in asymmetric conflict: minimax.

Dear #BlueWizards, @pyotrkurzin.bsky.social's latest video shows remarkable depth of analysis - something everyone should aspire to.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/what-kurzins...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

2 weeks ago

Vexler and Kurzin on Trump-Iran: A Case Study for How Macro Inference Beats Micro Story… Trump military action on Iran is our case study today. In ordinary politics, analysts can luxuriate in nuance. They can argue over motives…

Dear #BlueWizards, Both @pyotrkurzin.bsky.social and @vladvexler.bsky.social have a different story for Trump-Iran. Neither matter.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/vexler-and-k...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

2 weeks ago

Iran Under Time Compression, Assuming Netanyahu’s Wants Are Subordinate to Trump-Putin’s Wars don’t last forever, men don’t live forever, and no system stays around forever. It is possible than all three could change — see north…

Dear #BlueWizards, In my latest analysis, I assume Netanyahu's wants wrt Iran are subordinate to Trump-Putin's:

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/iran-under-t...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

2 weeks ago

SOTU Blackout Bingo Mark a square when President Trump says it. Blackout = fill all 25 squares. Prices are way down / affordability solved Worst inflation in history (I inherited it) Almost no inflation now Gas is $1.99 a gallon We were a dead country a year ago $18 trillion in new investments Biden wrecked it; I fixed it I ended 'stagflation' 401(k)s soaring because of me Trade deficit slashed 77% Real wages down $3k under Biden; up now Jobs/hiring booming (record numbers) FREE SPACE Border is an 'invasion' Migrants caused a crime wave Fentanyl crisis blamed on the border Murder rate lowest in 125 years Ukraine is blocking peace (not Russia) Tariffs will bring jobs home & cut costs Courts/deep state blocked my tariffs Greenland needs us; we need Greenland Fake news / media lies I won the 2020 election 2024 was a 'landslide' Allies/foreigners are ripping us off (trade/NATO)

Dear #BlueWizards, If you are going to punish yourself by watching the #SOTU tonight at least have some fun with it.

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

2 weeks ago

Vlad Vexler’s Pillar Three Moment I have been watching Vlad Vexler for long enough to know the shape of his mind. He is strong on Pillar One thinking: regime security as…

Dear #BlueWizards, In his latest, @vladvexler.bsky.social tackles Boris Johnson's damaging/traitor-general comments wrt #Ukraine.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/vlad-vexlers...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

3 weeks ago

From the Munich Security Conference to Town Hall, AOC Makes the Case for Her Brand of Leadership After two recent high-visibility appearances — an international-security stage in Munich and a packed district town hall in Queens — the…

Dear #BlueWizards, @vladvexler.bsky.social isn't wrong, but he also isn't quite right when it comes to @aoc.bsky.social's latest appearance in #Munich.

medium.com/@johnrraymon...

@georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

A Little Chess and a Simple Conspiracy Theory: Toward Understanding the Russian Telegram Shutoff Let me be explicit: this is conjecture. It is a possible explanation for an otherwise confusing piece of timing, not a claim of insider knowledge, not a leaked memo, not a “sources say” scoop. I am of...

Dear #BlueWizards, Why did Russia turn of Telegram? My theory doesn't take all that much tinfoil to understand...

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/a-littl...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

Dear Ro Khanna, This Is a Wakeup Call You made an unforced error in the exact arena where unforced errors can be fatal: adversarial information warfare conducted by a regime…

Dear #BlueWizards, @rokhanna.bsky.social needs not make any more unforced errors...

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/dear-ro-khan...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

What Actuarial Models of Trump’s Health Actually Say Most online commentary about President Trump’s health commits a category error: it treats long-horizon actuarial aging as if it were a…

Dear #BlueWizards, When it comes to Trump's health, I really wish I could stop writing these counters to the laziness of it all.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/what-actuari...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

Though She Sidestepped the Question, AOC’s Munich Security Conference Performance Proves She Is a Strong Presidential Contender Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez did what serious aspirants to executive power must do before they ever announce: she demonstrated decision-grade foreign policy cognition in a room that measures credibility, ...

Dear #BlueWizards, @aoc.bsky.social's just proved - and for the whole world to see - that she has what it takes to be the commander-in-chief.

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/though-...

@georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

I am No Vlad Vexler and That Is a Good Thing I am no Vlad Vexler and that is a good thing.If you have been watching the noise machine emit its daily fog—its false equivalences, its manufactured optimism, its ritual insistence that reality is neg...

Dear #BlueWizards, I am using @vladvexler.bsky.social as a foil for understanding how analysis interacts with the real world...

www.johnrraymond.greatlibrary.io/post/i-am-no...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

I Don’t Believe in Witches and I Don’t Believe in Demons, but After Pam Bondi Yesterday I Might… I do not believe in witches. I do not believe in demons. I do not believe in possession. I believe in incentives, institutions, propaganda…

Dear #BlueWizards, I don't believe in demonic possession, but after watching Pam #Bondi yesterday, I understand early man much better

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/i-dont-belie...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social

John R Raymond 🚫👑

@johnrraymond.bsky.social

1 month ago

Epstein Will Not Go Away: Why Mass Defection Can Return Without Repeating ETA’s Exact Conditions The Epstein Files Transparency Act (ETA) vote was not a moral miracle. It was an equilibrium. The House produced a near-unanimous outcome…

Dear #BlueWizards, Where others like to talk out their asses, I try to make legible the past and predict the future using math.

johnrraymondesq.medium.com/epstein-will...

@aoc.bsky.social @georgetakei.bsky.social @realjakebroe.bsky.social @markhamillofficial.bsky.social @avindman.bsky.social