Latest posts tagged with #CashRate on Bluesky
Rather not! I don’t know! 🤷♀️ According to my forecasting system, the cash rate is set to hold steady. Despite the forecast mean being on a clear upwards trajectory, the forecast intervals include the current cash rate value decisively. I’m sticking with my call: HOLD! 🛑
#cashrate #forecast #rstats
RBA Raises Rates to 3.85% as Inflation Proves Stubborn
#RBA #InterestRates #AusNews #Inflation #CashRate #AusEconomy
thedailyperspective.org/article/2026-03-08-rba-r...
It's definitely a possibility! 🤷♂️ The bond yield curve models for the monthly data are set on the CUT, but weekly data models and other specifications indicate a HOLD decision. The former usually forecasts more precisely, and therefore it's a CUT. But I'm not certain 🤷
#rstats #cashrate #forecast
It’s the third rate cut of the year, a welcome relief to mortgage holders.
The Reserve Bank has cut the #cashRate by a quarter of a percentage point to 3.6%, from 3.85%.
Unanimous decision by the #RBA monetary policy board.
#PatrickCommins
This time they will, right? 🤖👾 The markets are right in their assessment that the cash rate is on a downward-sloping trajectory. Last month’s decision to HOLD does not contradict this. Unsurprisingly, this month, similarly to July, my predictions indicate a CUT. 👽🚀
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats
✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣
⭐ My system predicted previous twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐
forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky
✨ This is to celebrate a 12-correctly-predicted-decision streak for my forecasting system... that is now over! 🤣
⭐ My system predicted last twelve decisions right, which reaches back to November 2023! ⭐
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky
forecasting cash rate: a 15 bp cut is predicted for July
👽 My forecasts indicate another CUT. The predictive intervals do not contain the current cash rate value. They include a 25bp cut. The forecast mean suggests a 15bp decrease. 📉
👾 My system predicted correctly last 12 decisions. Will 13 become my lucky number?
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats
😎 In line with expert opinions and market expectations, the combined forecasts from my models indicate a decisive CUT 📉 of the cash rate in May. The predictive intervals do not include the rate’s current value and include a 25bp cut ✅
🌐 forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#forecasting #cashrate #rstats
Having correctly predicted the last cut, my forecasting system has settled on an uncontroversial HOLD 🛑 prediction for the RBA’s April meeting. My forecasts are available at: forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#rstats #cashrate #forecasting #econsky
I have been forecasting RBA's decisions about the cash rate since October 2022⏳ answering the survey by www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate
The 3️⃣ major wins were that my forecasting system predicted: 👇
#forecasting #cashrate #rstats
Woohoo! ✨🌟 I'm so happy that my #forecasting system predicted the CUT 📉 Change-point forecasting is difficult and I never took it for granted that the system will identify the CUT after over a year of no movements on #cashrate. But it managed: bsky.app/profile/toma...
#rstats #econsky
This or the next time 😎
#forecasting #cashrate #rstats #econsky
Cherish the day! ✨💫 My forecasting system indicates that it's a decisive CUT 📉. The predictive intervals from the pooled forecast, including from all bond yield curve models, for the first time in years, do not include the current value of the cash rate. ✅
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky
Expect no changes in the cash rate for now. One should add “unsurprisingly” because all the statistical data releases and RBA’s communication indicate an extension of the wait for the first cut. My forecasts confirm this.
forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#cashrate #forecasting #rstats #econsky
WOW! I have been doing the 𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘩 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘢𝘴𝘵𝘴 for two years now! And it's been so much fun! 🚀
forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#forecasting #cashrate #rstats #quarto #hydraplot
We're over it! ⭐ ... and we're going down soon! ✨ My forecasts are centred at HOLD for this month. We have just pasted the times of a high probability of RAISE as it went down from over 70 per cent in July to less than 50 per cent for the upcoming meeting.
#rstats #forecasting #cashrate #monetary
It's true to write that the Reserve Bank of Australia should increase the cash rate, but they will probably not.
You can access these forecasts at forecasting-cash-rate.github.io
#forecasting #cashrate
Yet unlikely! 👻 👾 👽
My forecasts indicate the beginning of a downward trend in the cash rate. However, the uncertainty around this trend remains large enough to suggest a 𝗛𝗢𝗟𝗗 decision. 🛑
For the first time in my forecasting, some models suggest a cut.
#rstats #quarto #cashrate #forecasting
