2/2 The risks may not yet be systemicโbut they are becoming harder to ignore, writes Sanjay Mansabdar for BasisPoint.
#CreditMarkets #FinancialStability #GlobalFinance #SystemicRisk
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#CreditMarkets
Latest posts tagged with #CreditMarkets on Bluesky
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Posts tagged #CreditMarkets
Bloomberg: #Creditmarkets, already vulnerable to risks from #AI and #private lending, are wobbling. #Bondspreads widened and #creditdefaultswaps blew out. Some issuers are delaying #bond sales.
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I caught myself letting sympathy influence my thinking.
That happened with Ukrainian GDP warrants.
So I switched to a cold, fact-based framework.
Hereโs the objective breakdown. ๐งต
#CreditMarkets #SovereignDebt #Ukraine
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4/5 Here's the trade gap:
Equity markets have rewarded low AI-risk sectors MUCH more than credit markets
"We still think there is value in owning 'real' asset sectors in credit: utilities, energy, real estate, telcos"
Credit lagging = opportunity ๐
#CreditMarkets
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It caused a 38% selloff in stocks and problems in #CreditMarkets like #Mortgages, as displaced workers can't pay their #Loans. www.axios.com/2026/02/24/a...
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Hyperscaler supply expectations SURGING:
๐ธ Dec survey: $210bn expected
๐ธ Feb survey: $285bn expected (+36%!)
๐ธ 30% think it'll exceed $300bn
Yet only 26% say fund flows are the #1 driver. Markets pricing supply, ignoring demand?
#CreditMarkets
4/5
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Januaryโs Credit Pulse showed continued deterioration in delinquency rates, with the average delinquency rising to 2.81% from 2.75% in December and 2.58% a year earlier.
#JPM #CreditMarkets #ConsumerCredit #Delinquencies #ChargeOffs
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Finally Credit ARE NOT Equities
Dispersion metrics show that this remains largely an equity story for now and not nearly as much of a credit spread driver!
My view: buy the (little) dip, clip the coupon.
#CreditMarkets #FixedIncome
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3๏ธโฃ BofA's take: "With spreads near record tights, it makes sense to sell first and ask questions later. That means some sectors are oversold."
โ Translation: Smart money WILL BE BUYING THE DIP. #CreditMarkets
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Two line charts comparing VSTOXX and MOVE vols (dark blue) with EUR IG spreads (gray) from Jan '25 to Jan '26, showing volatility spikes around Apr '25.
๐ An EQUITY problem IS NOT a CREDIT problem
Past 2 weeks ๐
โข S&P Tech -5.6% (AMD -26%, Oracle -23%, MSFT -19%)
โข Silver -27%
โข Bitcoin -25%
โข Rheinmetall -12%
Meanwhile ๐น
โข EUR IG spreads: +1bp
โข EUR HY spreads: +9bp
#CreditMarkets #Investments
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As long as financial conditions stay loose, the expression "spreads too tight" will keep being wrong.
#CreditMarkets #FinancialConditions #Spreads
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When a $500B AI project makes investors nervous, something is off. Oracle went from AI darling to downgrade risk in months, and lenders are pricing that fear in real time. Is this the AI capex reckoning?
zurl.co/hhAeb
#AI #CreditMarkets #GoodRevenue
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If threats of military action between NATO allies don't widen spreads, what will? ๐ค
iTraxx Main moved just 3bp peak-to-trough this weekโinvestors were "buying-the-dip" before tensions even calmed. EUR IG/HY ended the week 3bp/5bp *tighter*.
Welcome to the post-fatigue market ๐โก๏ธ๐ #CreditMarkets
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1๏ธโฃ Corporate Bonds flexe resilience vs Equities! ๐ช
๐ VIX spiked to 20
๐ S&P down 2% on Greenland tariff announcement Tuesday
๐ต USD IG spreads widened just 1bp, only 2bp off cyclical tights
Strong technicals (see BofA: โฌ3bn net buying by investors) overpowering headline risk ๐ช
#CreditMarkets
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Are we heading for an AI-driven debt bubble, or is this just smart infrastructure financing? ๐ค
BofA predicts ~$140bn/year in hyperscaler debt issuance through 2026. That's massive, but here's why I think the IG market will digest it just fine... ๐งต
#CreditMarkets #FixedIncome #AI
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EUR HY volatility is basically dead ๐๐
๐ 1-month trading range at just 9bp.
๐ Compare that to 100-140bp during COVID or 60-80bp in 2022.
Spreads are tight AND stable. "Recession fatigue" means every dip gets bought. Hard to monetize pullbacks now.
(See Figure 2)
#HighYield #CreditMarkets
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If one worries about the #economy, we will see the trouble here first [Source: Strategas research Partners 2025.12.19]. After a "white knuckle" widening of spreads in the early fall, the #creditmarkets calmed down. Stay tuned.
#LRGWealthAdvisors #investmentadvice #financialadvisor #LaRueGibson
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Big earnings โbeat.โ
The market still said no.
Oracleโs numbers looked strong, but the cash burn and debt math told a different story.
AI demand isnโt in question.
AI economics are.
This graphic shows why the market flinched.
#Oracle #AIInfrastructure #CreditMarkets #Earnings
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Software revenue down, cloud growth up, and debt markets unconvinced. My take on Oracleโs results: buff.ly/VkaaxVw
#Software #Cloud #CreditMarkets #Finance
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AI Debt Boom Splits Investor Confidence as Markets Reprice Risk
wiobs.com/ai-debt-boom...
#FinanceNews #AIMarket #CorporateDebt #InvestmentGrade #HighYield #CreditMarkets #GoldmanSachs #DataCenterBoom #TechInvesting #MarketOutlook
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If you want to understand where the AI infrastructure cycle is heading, ignore the noise and watch the credit markets. #AI #CEO #COO #CxO #CreditMarkets #Infrastructure
michaelkeen1.substack.com/p/ai-infrast...
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AI Credit Trading Blueprint 2025
Top hedge funds (Citadel, Millennium, Point72) arenโt experimentingโtheyโre operationalizing AI.
95% of credit traders? Still on spreadsheets.
The gap: 300โ500 bps alpha annually.
thebergcodex.myshopify.com/products/lev...
#QuantTrading #AIFinance #CreditMarkets
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Bookmarked for the day of the coming financial market crash.
#C4News #CreditMarkets #SubPrime
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Apollo Global Management Chief Economist Torsten Slok argues the U.S. economy is entering a stronger phase than many anticipate, citing clear signs of resilience in key credit indicators
#SPY #BOTZ #Economy #AI #Manufacturing #IndustrialRenaissance #CreditMarkets #USGrowth #TradeWar #Investing
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Another #USregionalbanking crisis #WallStreet will be bailed out at the expense of the poorest. #banking #creditmarkets #DowJones
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USA credit markets strengthening significantly in 2025 with record-low interest rates driving consumer debt growth. However, rising inflation and regulatory pressures pose new risks. #Finance #CreditMarkets #ForbesAn... learn how i got $1256 grant for my business: tinyurl.com/financialhel...
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US credit markets projected to contract in 2025 amid rising interest rates and slowing economic growth. ๐ #ForbesFinance #CreditMarkets learn how i got $1256 grant for my business: tinyurl.com/financialhel...
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Amidst a backdrop of inflation concerns, the USA's credit markets remain robust, with rising interest rates showing a cautious approach to stability. #Finance #CreditMarkets #Forbes2025 learn how i got $1256 grant for my business: tinyurl.com/financialhel...
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Shrinking credit spreads signal booming markets, but high rates linger as FOMC retains cautious tone amid a volatile year. USA economy gains momentum but faces ongoing challenges. #CreditMarkets #ForbesRanking learn how i got $1256 grant for my business: tinyurl.com/financialhel...
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