#CrowdWisdom

@shareinspirequotes.bsky.social

3 months ago

Be careful when you blindly follow the mass.

Be careful when you blindly follow the mass.

#IndependentThinking #MindfulChoices #CriticalThought #BeDifferent #SelfAwareness #BreakTheMold #CrowdWisdom #Quotes #ShareInspireQuotes

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Dr. Isabel Z. Martínez

@izmartinez86.bsky.social

5 months ago

Looking for #crowdwisdom: which *specific policies* do you think could (in theory) increase #intergenerational #mobility?

Examples so far:
- inheritance tax
- universal basic inheritance
- universal basic income
- stipends for higher education

Please add further ideas in the comments!

THANK YOU!

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Emanuel Deutschmann

@deutschmann.bsky.social

1 year ago

Abstract of the paper "Emergent Numeracy: How the Crowd Wisdom of Non-Rounding Survey Respondents Generates Accurate Immigration Estimates": Survey respondents overestimate, on average, the number of immigrants living in their country. This phenomenon, known as immigration innumeracy, seems incompatible with the wisdomof- crowds effect, which suggests that large samples of individuals should, as a collectivity, be good at estimating such figures. However, this article reveals that crowd wisdom does emerge in a previously overlooked subgroup: non-rounding respondents. Drawing on German and European survey data, it is shown that when round estimates (5, 10, 15, …) are excluded, a subset of “wise” non-rounding respondents remains, who collectively estimate the share of foreigners in their country with astounding precision. Thus, a relevant—and easily identifiable— part of the population is actually collectively immigration numerate. Two potential mechanisms behind this emergent phenomenon are explored. First, regression models reveal that non-rounders are more educated and politically interested than rounders, indicating more informed guesses. Second, simulations show that the coarse-grained nature of round numbers itself can contribute to inaccurate estimates. Using round numbers is thus associated with uncertainty, resulting in biased estimates. Taking the crowd wisdom of non-rounding respondents into account qualifies the extent of immigration innumeracy and improves our understanding of a phenomenon that is often seen as a root cause of xenophobia.

Graph that shows that rounding survey responents on average over-estimate the share of foreigners living in Eastern Germany, whereas non-rounding survey respondents are collectively very close to the official value.

Graph that reveals based on simulated data that the coarse-grained nature of round values contributes to the imprecision of round estimates.

Graph from the supplementary material that shows based on international ESS data that across countries in Europe the same pattern holds: rounders overestimate the share of migrants, non-rounders are close to the offical value on average.

People usually overestimate the share of immigrants in their country.

However, in this new #openaccess paper, I show that survey respondents who do not use round numbers like 10% or 20% in their guesses collectively estimate the share with astounding precision. #crowdwisdom

doi.org/10.1177/0001...

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