#DirectorView

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 week ago

Gilts Are Getting Shorter - Does It Matter? - NIESR The composition of public debt shapes who bears duration risk in the economy. It also matters for monetary policy, including how separable monetary and fiscal policy decisions are.

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman explores the new #gilt remit published by the #Chancellor for 2026–27 and outlines its implications for public finances and fiscal policy 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/gilts-a...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

2 weeks ago

Stress Testing Needs A Reset - NIESR Stress testing is a central pillar of macroprudential policy. But, today’s stress tests are generating an overly benign picture of system-wide risk.

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman assesses whether the #BankOfEngland stress-testing framework needs a reset

*Spoiler Alert* It does, and here is why 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/stress-...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 month ago

The UK’s Leverage Ratio Is Working. Don’t Weaken It - NIESR The Bank of England is reviewing the leverage ratio framework “to ensure it functions as intended”. But, the leverage ratio is doing its job and here's why.

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman assesses how the UK’s bank leverage ratio is implemented 👇

*Spoiler alert* Don't change what is working, and - more important - don't weaken it!

niesr.ac.uk/blog/uks-lev...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 month ago

How Should We Pay for Increased Defence Spending? - NIESR The UK needs a sustained increase in defence spending. What can economic theory tell us about financing a defence build-up of this type?

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman outlines what economics and public finance theory suggests about financing an increased #defence spending👇

#UKeconomy
#FiscalRules
niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-sho...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 month ago

Decoding Financial Stability Reports with LLMs - NIESR We use a large language model to interrogate a recent set of financial stability reports. Our aim is to to hold a mirror up to the collective assessment of central banks.

#WeekendReading🔖The latest #DirectorView 📈

In this week's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo David Aikman uses large language models to analyse the latest Financ. Stability Reports from some of the world's leading central banks. What can we learn from them about the risks faced?

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 month ago

Is Financial Regulation Holding Back Growth? - NIESR Does the UK’s regulatory framework for financial services weigh on economic growth? Whilst removing some regulation may help, we should not expect the resultant growth effects to be large.

#WeekendReading 🔖The latest #DirectorView 📈

In this week's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman tries to shed a light on whether #FinancialRegulation is holding back growth...

Read it here 👇

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

1 month ago

Is Financial Regulation Holding Back Growth? - NIESR Does the UK’s regulatory framework for financial services weigh on economic growth? Whilst removing some regulation may help, we should not expect the resultant growth effects to be large.

⚡️JUST PUBLISHED⚡️ The latest #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman assesses whether #FinancialRegulation is holding back growth...

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/financi...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

2 months ago

Could a Gilt Market Shock Derail the Economy in 2026? - NIESR Explore the risks facing the UK bond market in 2026. This blog explores how a shock in the US Treasury market could trigger a gilt market sell-off.

⚡️NEW⚡️ The first 2026 #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman assesses whether a #giltmarket shock could derail the economy in 2026 📊

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/could-g...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

2 months ago

November - #NIESRHighlights2025⚡

Our #DirectorView further analysis on the Budget outlining how fiscal policy is set to become a major headwind to growth over the next 5 years, and how the latest #Budget barely changes that 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-st...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

2 months ago

Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic - NIESR Whilst much of the focus has been on the current UK fiscal rules, a more fundamental question is around the sustainability of UK public debt.

September - #NIESRHighlights2025⚡

The month which saw the beginning of the 'Dean Trench Weekly Memo' from our Director David Aikman

In this #DirectorView he tackled a fundamental question as we approached the #AutumnBudget: is the UK’s public debt position sustainable?

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

The FPC Blinks on Bank Capital - NIESR An assessment of the FPC’s decision to lower bank equity capital requirements, and the implications for bank lending and BoE's financial stability policy.

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView 📈

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman explores the Financial Policy Committee’s (FPC) latest judgement on bank equity capital - and is a must read 👇

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

The FPC Blinks on Bank Capital - NIESR An assessment of the FPC’s decision to lower bank equity capital requirements, and the implications for bank lending and BoE's financial stability policy.

"At the very moment the #Bank lists have a dozen rising risks, it decides banks need less capital.

That is quite something."🔥

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's blog our Director David Aikman assesses the FPC's latest judgement on bank #equity capital 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/fpc-bli...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

What is the Stance of Fiscal Policy after Wednesday’s Budget? - NIESR What does the package announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget mean for the stance of fiscal policy?  Is policy providing a tailwind or acting as a headwind?

#WeekendReading: The latest #DirectorView 📈

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman explores how fiscal policy has shaped demand over the past decade and what Wednesday’s #AutumnBudget implies for the next five years 👇

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

What is the Stance of Fiscal Policy after Wednesday’s Budget? - NIESR What does the package announced in the 2025 Autumn Budget mean for the stance of fiscal policy?  Is policy providing a tailwind or acting as a headwind?

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman outlines how fiscal policy has shaped demand over the past decade and what Wednesday’s #AutumnBudget implies for the next five years 👇

#Budget2025 #MonetaryPolicy #UKeconomy

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-st...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from explores explores the channels through which the #Budget can impact borrowing costs and shows how a credible fiscal plan could potentially lower gilt yields and earn a ‘credibility dividend’

niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-mig...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

3 months ago

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman explores some of the implications of the latest @bankofengland.bsky.social innovation to their #MPC members communication 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/whats-m...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman examines what the #Chancellor should say in the new MPC remit - and poses five critical questions for the Chancellor to consider when writing this year’s letter 📨 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-sh...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman examines what the #Chancellor should say in the new MPC remit - and poses five critical questions for the Chancellor to consider when writing this year’s letter ✉️
👇👇👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-sh...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at a set of established #policy rules to gauge what they would prescribe for #Bank Rate in the current economic environment.

Spoiler: not time to cut yet✂️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-do...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at a set of established #policy rules to gauge what they would prescribe for #Bank Rate in the current economic environment.

Spoiler: not time to cut yet ✂️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/what-do...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at the evidence for and against the so-called “debasement #trade”, and its implications for the #USA and the global economy

#gold #Dollar
niesr.ac.uk/blog/digging...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at the evidence for and against the so-called “debasement #trade” , and its implications for the US and the global economy

#gold
#dollar
#MonetaryPolicy

niesr.ac.uk/blog/digging...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

#WeekendReading 🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at how large a buffer would the #Chancellor need to ensure that debt in the Parliament's final year is no higher than it is today
👇👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-ris...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

4 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman tackles a topical question:

How large a buffer would the #Chancellor need to ensure that debt in the Parliament's final year is no higher than it is today?👇👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/how-ris...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at what is driving the UK’s rise in gilt yields and how can they start to be brought down 📉

Read it here 👇

niesr.ac.uk/blog/why-are...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman looks at whether reducing the OBR forecasts from two a year to just onw is a good idea or not

And...spoiler, he doesn’t think it is - Here is why ⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/chancel...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

The #DirectorView is out now 📈

In today's 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo our Director David Aikman looks at whether reducing the #OBR forecasts from two a year to just one is a good idea or not.

And... spoiler, he doesn’t think it is - Here is why ⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/chancel...

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic - NIESR Whilst much of the focus has been on the current UK fiscal rules, a more fundamental question is around the sustainability of UK public debt.

#WeekendReading🔖 The latest #DirectorView

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman tackles a fundamental question as we approach the #AutumnBudget: is the UK’s public debt position sustainable?

Find out here ⬇️

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

@niesrorg.bsky.social

5 months ago

Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic - NIESR Whilst much of the focus has been on the current UK fiscal rules, a more fundamental question is around the sustainability of UK public debt.

"Some Unpleasant Fiscal Arithmetic" 🧮The #DirectorView is out now

The 'Dean Trench' Weekly Memo from our Director David Aikman tackles a fundamental question as we approach the #AutumnBudget: is the UK’s public debt position sustainable?

Read it here⬇️

niesr.ac.uk/blog/some-un...