Image is of the 12z Euro for Feb 6th. Shows large swaths of 10-20cm of snow in th Netherlands.
Euro and GFS showing good snow signals in the long range for much of The Netherlands. #Sneeuw #euwx
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#EUwx
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Storm Kirstin set to strike the Iberian Peninsula in the early in the morning & likely to bring damaging wind gusts inhabited areas of Portugal. There is some disagreement among guides as to whether the Leiria or the Aveiro vicinity will take the brunt, I tend towards the latter. #EUwx
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Photo is from the 12z run of the euro ensemble. It shows light snow in the 150 - 246 hour range.
Signals are getting stronger again for snow in the Netherlands. Lines up with polar vortex split soon. #Sneeuw #euwx
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Winds from Storm Goretti will be particularly strong on the Channel islands. Very damaging wind gusts of 160+ km/h (100+ mph), potentially even up to 180 km/h (110 mph) unfortunately seem likely on at least one of the islands in my opinion. Interests there should cancel all evening plans #UKwx #EUwx
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An increasing amount of models now indicates that Thursday evening will be quite windy in Cornwall to say the least. ICON-EU, EZ4, HARMONIE, UKV and to a lesser extend IFS all indicate widespread hurricane-force gusts. Tho there are still more bearish solutions like AROME. #UKwx #EUwx
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Weather models are bringing up to 30cm of snow for most of the Netherlands Friday #Sneeuw #Nederlands #euwx
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It seems like the ECMWF IFS has gone absolutely insane with its 00Z run. Widespread >20 cm of snow across most of NW Germany and the Benelux from that low on Friday. Yeah, no XD. Comparing this for example to the latest ICON-EU, we can see how ludicrous that IFS forecast is. #EUwx
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Looking at all of Europe, Christmas even should be below average in most of Central, eastern and western Europe. Meanwhile the north of Europe and to a lesser extend the southeast should see unseasonably warm temperatures this christmas eve. #EUwx
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Storm arriving in France tonight will bring unsettled weather to most of the country. Potential for damaging wind gusts along the coast. Manche and the nearby channel islands will be particularly interesting. Some guides, like ICON-EU, suggest a concentrated area of >110 km/h may strike there. #EUwx
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8️⃣ Europe
A strong Atlantic system sweeps across Paris and Warsaw with gusts to 70 km/h. Meanwhile, Athens basks under high pressure and 28°C warmth. 🌦️
#EuropeWx @wmo-global.bsky.social
#EUWx #WeatherEurope #DontGetLeftBehind true-north-explorers.ca
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Most of the generally reliable global model guidance transforms the remnants of Hurricane Humberto into a large and powerful extratropical windstorm near the British Isles towards the end of the week. There are however also alternate solutions like AIFS (image #4). Monitoring...
#EUwx
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It now seems like the initial focus this evening into tonight may be more towards Luxembourg and its vicinity, where ICON-D2, RUC and Nowcast prog locally up to >100 l/m2 in 6 hours. Greatest rain rates then shift east towards the Eifel as night progresses into morning. #EUwx
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Quite potent environment over parts of Northern Italy tomorrow, as sampled here by GFS. This modelled environment could support supercells capable of all hazards, including (strong) tornadoes and (very) large hail. In fact pre-convective ICON-D2 soundings are even better. #severewx #EUwx
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As per GFS forecast soundings the storm complex coming on shore in southern Tuscany is located in a volatile environment particularly for very large hail. However, a threat for damaging wind gusts ane even a tornado or two also exists. #EUwx
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Europe
Western Europe mild (18–22°C) with rain bands; southern Europe hot & dry (33–37°C). Isolated t-storms over the Balkans. #EuropeWx #EUwx #UKwx #SpainWx #ItalyWx
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Paris, France: Bonjour, Paris! A mostly cloudy day with a high of 28°C is on the way. There's a slight chance of rain, so keep an umbrella handy just in case. #Paris #ParisWeather #France #WeatherForecast #EUwx
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Map of UK and Ireland 10-m wind speed forecast at 1 p.m. Monday 4 August (1200 UTC) associated with #StormFloris showing strongest onshore winds (exceeding 15 meters per second) across northern Scotland with even stronger winds (exceeding 20 meters per second) over the waters around northern Scotland.
Animations of forecasted strong winds from #StormFloris over the next two days from ManUniCast.com.
European and North Atlantic scale:
manunicast.seaes.manchester.ac.uk/view.php?t=2...
UK and Ireland scale:
manunicast.seaes.manchester.ac.uk/view.php?t=2...
#Floris #UKwx #EUwx #UKweather
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The MetOffice named #StormFloris earlier today and for good reason. Major models continue to agree on widespread storm-force wind gusts across Ireland, Scotland and N England. Chance for hurricane force particularly in the highlands and along the W and N coast of Scotland. #UKwx #EUwx
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Major global models continue to insist on a compact unseasonably deep low to develop in the vicinity of the british isles early next week (~975-985 mbar), which could bring storm force winds. This enjoys strong ensemble support as well. I'd still be cautious tho (1/2)
#EUwx #UKwx
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This mornings ICON-D2 progs quite a potent environment for Paris and its vicinity this evening, which could support damaging wind gusts and (very) large hail. Current modelling progs the focus for severe activity slightly further west and south but Paris is not in the clear #EUwx
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French doppler weather radar continues to suggest that multiple strong to intense supercells are ongoing across portions of north-central France. All with an attendant risk of large to very large hail and severe to damaging straight-line wind gusts. #EUwx #severewx
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The 12Z observed sounding from Trappes (Paris suburb) meanwhile indicates that the threat for large to very large hail is well on track. Indicating already around 1000 J/KG of HGL/HGZ CAPE. Also shows high DCAPE, which will further support a risk of severe wind gusts. #EUwx
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Regional VWPs across northern France courtesy of NLradar indicate that a voatile kinematic parameter space is in place, with loads of 0-1/0-3 km Shear & SRH. This will support a threat for damaging wind gusts & a conditional tornado risk, besides of course (very) large hail #EUwx
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Estofex has issued a Level 3 risk of severe weather, including widespread damaging wind gusts and large hail. A regional tornado threat cannot be ruled out. If you're in the risk areas, make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warnings tomorrow. #EUwx #severewx
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Tomorrow could be a very active severe weather day across parts of Germany, Austria, Poland and Czechia, as huge areas could see damaging to even destructive winds, large hail and tornadoes. Worst case scenario could involve a derecho like system. #EUwx
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Another day, another strong supercell approaching the Craiova vicinity of SW Romania. This one too poses a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. However be aware that according to guidance from 'nowcast', SRH is high enough to support a conditional tornado risk. #EUwx #severewx
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Crosspost:
Convective outlook for May 7th (valid till May 8th 6 am UTC)
Headline risk: Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for parts of southern Bulgaria and northeastern Greece…Mainly for large hail to very large hail and a lesser extend severe wind gusts
#EUwx #severewx
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Tomorrow will feature a significant severe weather risk across particularly eastern portions of spain, where numerous severe thunderstorms capable of large to very large #hail and damaging #wind gusts are expected. Main caveat seems to be likely messy storm mode. #severewx #Euwx
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Friday should see the peak of a multi-day #severewx episode in Spain with a focus on the eastern half. Swiss 4x4 in particular progs quite a potent parameter space in the Albacete vicinity, with a main threat of large to very large #hail. All models here: meteologix.com/uk/model-cha...
#EUwx
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For at least the next several hours (warm) moist mediterranean air will continue to be driven headlong into the French/Swiss Alps over NW Italy. This should result in an additional 100-250 mm of precipitation on top of the similar amounts that have alrady fallen. (Further) #flooding likely. #EUwx
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