Latest posts tagged with #Econ on Bluesky
Swaps/Futures contract are not always precise indicators of the direction in pricing. They are, however, a good indicator of the challenge of price discovery under wartime supply constraints and risk of a sharp increase in prices and topline inflation that would ensue. #Econ #EconSky
The Bloomberg Fari Value Dubai Balance of Month is a swap contract that helps manage risk during the remaining days of the month. This crude metric reflects the difficulty in pricing oil over due to those supply constraints. #Econ #EconSky
This is part of the reason why one is hearing talk about risk of a spike to between $140 and $160 in the price of crude should the war continue into the spring or early summer. #Econ #EconSky
The data viz illustrates that due to supply constraints caused by the closure of Hormuz there is a risk that the price of oil will spike towards $145 per barrel in coming weeks. #Econ #EconSky
Keep an eye on Dubai crude futures which are used by refiners, the trading and investment community to manage risk around short- and long-term supply contracts. #Econ #EconSky
Supply disruptions to the oil and energy markets should be understood to continue to the end of hostilities and 2-3 months following with risk of a longer period of disruptions depending upon damage to production, refining and shipping infrastructure. #Econ #EconSky
Oil Prices: As oil markets open later today there will likely be a surge in the price of Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate. #Econ #EconSky
Until the choke point is opened there is little central banks can do other than wait, watch and identify under what conditions they will hike rates to ensure price stability or when demand destruction requires cuts.
Either way it’s a lose-lose proposition. #Econ #EconSky
The common denominator is that central banks can create electronic reserves, treasury authorities can print money but non can print oil.
We have a global supply problems due to the closure of Hormuz. #Econ #EconSky
Each will address rising oil prices & the policy path with varying degrees of confidence. Japan & Australia will sound much more hawkish. The BOE, US, BoC & EU will be relatively more restrained and counsel patience. #Econ #EconSky
Good morning. The upcoming week will see six major central banks making policy decisions. The US, BoC, EU, BoE & Japan will all keep rates steady. Our friends down in Australia will hike. #Econ #EconSky
When economists talk about duration matters within the context of the war it is risk such as this. It’s the quiet crisis that’s slowly evolving that will shortly show up in food prices. #Econ #EconSky
Source: NBC News
www.nbcnews.com/business/con...
My interview via @YahooFinance on War, Oil & the US economy. #Econ #EconSky
uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/long-i...
I think this is a net positive for central bank independence and markets will receive it well.
A look at the balance sheet which is one of Warsh's agenda items should he be appointed Fed Chair. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #FOMC
Kevin Warsh and the Fed: it’s starting to look as if we will not get a Warsh run fed during the first half of the year.
It may not be until 2026, if at all, based on what key decisionmakers in the political authority are signaling. #Fed #FOMC #Econ #EconSky
Throw tariffs on top and watch those core goods prices rise in coming months.
The Fed is not going to cut rates into this in the near term. #Econ #EconSky
Note that core services and core goods costs are simultaneously increasing. Core goods are up 3% at an annualized pace and core PCE is up 3.7% over the past three months.
War results in a draw on scarce resources. It is inherently inflationary. #Econ #EconSky
I would anticipate your favorite ride-sharing firm to do the same as will trucking, transport and delivery firms.
One can expect to see this result in higher inflation via the transportation channel immediately. #Econ #EconSky
Air India, Cathay Pacific, Ecolab, Maersk and UPS over the last 24 hours have all added such surcharges.
I would anticipate your favorite ride-sharing firm to do the same as will trucking, transport and delivery firms. #Econ #EconSky
Jet Fuel and Energy Surcharges: the spike in jet fuel-81% over the past two weeks & 124% since the start of the year- will cause businesses to start passing along costs in terms of energy fuel surcharges which will drive inflation higher. #Econ #EconSky
Consumer Prices Rose in January, Before Iran War Added Price Pressures Economic growth at the end of 2025 was revised downward and consumer prices rose at the start of 2026.. @cosmicmeta.ai #Econ
https://u2m.io/3RPODIz1
We expect the Fed to look through volatility energy costs. However, should those inflation expectations start moving higher the central bank will be reluctant to make the same policy error it made during the pandemic era which featured an energy shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. #Econ
The major questions that need to be answered: how will this impact short- and medium-term inflation expectations, will topline energy costs bleed through to core prices and how will the Fed respond if both occur? #Econ #EconSky
We expect that both the topline CPI and PCE price indexes will move to or above 3.5% in coming months due to the combined impact of sticky service prices and rising energy costs. #Econ #EconSky
That will all be exacerbated due to the energy shock, fuel surcharges and rising prices that will arrive at the pump, checkout lines and in utility bills in coming months. Note the super core PCE is standing at 3.514% and that will rise in coming months. #Econ #EconSky
US January PCE Index Takeaway
One can observe turn-of-the-year pricing in service sector pricing, which increased 3.5% which is an apt description of inflation anxieties that underscore what the public identifies as an affordability crisis. #Econ #EconSky
US January PCE Price Index: inflation increases 0.3% in the topline and 0.4% in the core which translates to 2.8% and 3.1% from one year ago. Inflation adjusted spending increased 0.1%. Income & spending on a nominal basis up 0.4%. #Econ #EconSky
As firms adjust their balance sheets with the energy shock they face three choices. Accept thinner margins, pass along the cost downstream and/or reduce headcount. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
