Latest posts tagged with #ExpectedValue on Bluesky
Bet sizing sparks intense debates in betting strategies. Two main methods dominate the conversation: Flat betting and the Kelly Criterion. #bettingstrategy #expectedvalue #kellycriterion #flatbetting #oddsanalysis
www.procomputergambler.com/flat-betting...
Scratch Card Odds 7/10 Each card quietly costs €1.90 in expected value. Buying five cards means tossing €9.50 away—on average. 🗑️ #ExpectedValue #CostOfHope #MathInLife
Buying a scratch card feels harmless.
But if every ticket guarantees a negative expected value…
are you paying for hope, not opportunity?
www.emberhart.com/may-the-odds...
#Probability #EmberhartJourney #PositiveParenting #KindnessRocks
#ExpectedValue #FinancialThinking #MathMatters
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#pokerstrategy, #pokermindset, #texasholdem, #vintonpoker, #pokercoach, #cashgames, #pokerlife, #expectedvalue
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#pokerstrategy, #pokermindset, #texasholdem, #vintonpoker, #pokercoach, #cashgames, #pokerlife, #expectedvalue
📰 New edition of Hitting the Bid is live!
This week:
→ My bullish trade in /ZN
→ What I'm watching in GLD
→ Using EV to make smarter decisions
Check it out 👉 hittingthebid.beehiiv.com/p/making-mov...
#expectedvalue #trading #markets #retailtrader #options #HittingTheBid
Great traders think in probabilities, not certainties.
Protect your capital so you can play the next hand.
#trading #investing #expectedvalue
Always have an exit plan. What’s next? You can always postpone it, but there always comes a time when it’s time to move on. HT @annieduke.com #ExpectedValue
How much would you be willing to pay me to play the following game with me:
I flip a coin again and again until I flip head.
Let k be the total number of coin flips I needed.
You receive from me 2^k €.
#Math #MathSky #Money #Gambling #GameTheory #ExpectedValue
The presentation abstract
The setup of experiment 3
Results of experiment 3: "Biased humans like biased advice" (not human advice per se)
Summary (pasted from slide): • Experts gaining expertise by experience often give biased advice: They both choose and recommend others to choose options better most of the time • People prefer advisors that recommend options better most of the time • Biased humans advisors are preferred over unbiased algorithmic advisors • But it is simple to design even more biased algorithmic advisors that accommodate human biases, and are liked more than human advisors
Ori Plonsky et al. found people liked biased advice in #expectedValue experiments.
Contrary to #algorithmAversion, people liked advice that aligned with their #biases (even if it came from an algorithm).
To learn when these data are published, follow Dr. Plonsky: scholar.google.com/citations?hl...
