A horizontal range chart titled "Lost in the Middle" showing how 5,174 respondents assigned numerical probabilities (0–100%) to 19 common probability phrases. Each row displays a phrase ordered from lowest to highest median estimate. The thick bar represents the middle 50% of responses (IQR) and thin lines show the 10th–90th percentile range. Phrases at the extremes — such as "Will Happen" (median 100%), "Almost Certain" (95%), and "Almost No Chance" (2%) — show narrow, tightly clustered bars in gray, indicating strong agreement. In contrast, "Realistic Possibility" (highlighted in deep burgundy, IQR spanning 25–75%) and three semantically similar phrases — "Might Happen," "May Happen," and "Could Happen" (shown in muted rose, all with median 40%) — display wide bars indicating substantial disagreement. "About Even" stands out as a single gray dot with zero spread, the only phrase on which respondents achieved perfect consensus at 50%.
📊 #TidyTuesday – 2026 W10 | How likely is 'likely'?
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🔗: stevenponce.netlify.app/data_visuali...
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