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Final results in the Maine #HD94 special election:

Scott Harriman (D)- 53.2%
Janet Beaudoin (R)- 46.8%

Kind of weird here, we don't if it's an overperformance or an underperformance from 2024. Some people have it as Harris+5, some Harris+13. Either way, Democratic hold in Lewiston.

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A conservative site is reporting that Democrat Scott Harriman has won the special election for Maine's #HD94 by a 53-47 margin. x.com/LocalPolitic...

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We say “appears” because, according to calculations from The Downballot, the 94th supported Harris by a 55-42 margin. Those figures, however, come with an unusual degree of uncertainty because Lewiston only offers precinct-by-precinct breakdowns for Election Day votes. Early votes, which made up almost half the total in 2024, are reported as a single citywide pool.

But because Lewiston is split between four House districts—almost perfectly divided into quarters—we must assign these unassigned early votes using Election Day votes as a guide. (We explain this process in detail in our statement of methodology.)

Of course, voting patterns can differ greatly between early voting and Election Day voting. However, in the absence of more granular data, there is no better solution to this problem—a common one in Maine.

We say “appears” because, according to calculations from The Downballot, the 94th supported Harris by a 55-42 margin. Those figures, however, come with an unusual degree of uncertainty because Lewiston only offers precinct-by-precinct breakdowns for Election Day votes. Early votes, which made up almost half the total in 2024, are reported as a single citywide pool. But because Lewiston is split between four House districts—almost perfectly divided into quarters—we must assign these unassigned early votes using Election Day votes as a guide. (We explain this process in detail in our statement of methodology.) Of course, voting patterns can differ greatly between early voting and Election Day voting. However, in the absence of more granular data, there is no better solution to this problem—a common one in Maine.

One very important caveat re Maine's #HD94: We *think* it voted for Harris by a 13-point margin, but we can't be entirely sure. Maine lacks the granular election data we'd need to be more confident—data that most jurisdictions provide.

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Forgot that Tuesday has three special state legislative elections and two of them are in places that backed Biden big before swinging hard to the right in 2024:

Maine's #HD94: Biden+18 to Harris+5
Pennsylvania's #HD22: Biden+34 to Harris+17

Definitely on watch for big Democratic overperformances

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