Why People Are So #Confident When They're #Wrong
The #problem with #overconfidence
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_Q...
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#Overconfidence
Latest posts tagged with #Overconfidence on Bluesky
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#F1
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#Six Nations
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#Trump and Epstein
Posts tagged #Overconfidence
Most losses don’t come from the market.
They come from ego.
Agree or disagree?
#TaurusPartners
#TradingPsychology
#Overconfidence
#TraderMindset
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Mind the Confidence Gap: Overconfidence, Calibration, and Distractor Effects in Large Language Mo...
Prateek Chhikara
Action editor: Hanie Sedghi
https://openreview.net/forum?id=lyaHnHDdZl
#distractors #distractor #overconfidence
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Timeless advice from John Templeton
Overconfidence leads to poor decisions. Maintain intellectual humility and recognize the complexity and uncertainty inherent in investing.
#InvestingWisdom #Templeton #IntellectualHumility #Overconfidence #Uncertainty
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The Textbook Trap: Physics Edition
The Textbook Trap: Physics Edition
#Physics #Olympiad #Textbooks #Overconfidence #Competition
sciencehumor.io/physics-memes/the-textbo...
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Can #Diamonds Save The #Planet? : Medium
#Trust, but verify: Leading in the age of #AI #Overconfidence : Misc
One hundred years of #QuantumMechanics ($) : Science
Latest #KnowledgeLinks
knowledgezone.co.in/resources/bo...
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Algorithmic Personalization of Information Can Cause Inaccurate Generalization and Overconfidence #algorithms #personalization #recommendation #information #specificity #diversity #beliefs #generalization #overconfidence #bias #learning
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How do people in a rising power view their country's global standing? My new paper in @iojournal.bsky.social finds significant national overconfidence in China—and shows that factual misperceptions can be corrected and triumphalism mitigated #Overconfidence #NationalImage #Correction #厉害了我的国 #大不自多
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Why #Overconfidence Is Our Most Dangerous #CognitiveBias
www.openculture.com/2025/11/why-...
youtu.be/9M_QK4stCJU
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#Personalization #Algorithms #CognitiveBias #Overconfidence #AIethics #Psychology #ProsocialBehavior
#SocialProof #Misinformation #DecisionMaking #Groupthink
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40 minutes tonight.
She's been a bit worried about a non existent money related thing, that she REALLY doesn't need to be worried about.
It's been the topic of conversation for the last few calls.
I think I may have sorted it tonight.
#overconfidence
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How Overconfidence Cost One Bank $1.3 Billion - YouTube
www.youtube.com/watch?v=9M_Q...
#Veritasium #Banking #Overconfidence #Errors #Finances
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Bagaimana Mengelola Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit
#Tradingan - Bagaimana Mengelola #Overconfidence Setelah Serangkaian Profit - Dalam dunia #trading, setiap trader pasti pernah merasakan euforia setelah serangkaian profit. Rasanya luar biasa ketika #strategi yang dijalankan berhasil…
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Read more at academy.socos.org/funhouse-mir...
#Personalization #Algorithms #CognitiveBias #Overconfidence #FilterBubble
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Read more in this week's “Research Roundup”: academy.socos.org/elections-be...
#ConspiracyTheories #CognitiveBias #Psychology #Overconfidence #Misinformation #CriticalThinking
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The Peter Principle and exploiting overconfident workers #peterprinciple #management #overconfidence #exploitation #work #promotion #ethics
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commitment to genuine educational reform. It means prioritising intellectual struggle over efficient content production, critical evaluation over polished outputs, and sustainable learning over short-term performance gains."
#metacognitiveLaziness #overconfidence #education
orig 3/4
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Are we teaching students AI competence or dependence? blogs.lse.ac.uk/impactofsocialsciences/2...
"Universities face a clear decision: do we want graduates who can merely use #AI, or citizens who can think with it?
The first […]
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Classic wisdom from John Templeton
Overconfidence leads to poor decisions. Maintain intellectual humility and recognize the complexity and uncertainty inherent in investing.
#InvestingWisdom #Templeton #IntellectualHumility #Overconfidence #Uncertainty
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Young Contestant Loses $56,000 to Overconfidence on India's Millionaire
#Ishit #KBC15 #MonetaryLoss #Overconfidence #WrongAnswer
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"Don't Explain Rules": 10-Year-Old KBC Contestant's Overconfidence Leads to Backlash
#10yearoldchild #Amitabhbachchan #misbehavior #Overconfidence
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Study Reveals Overconfidence Among National Security Officials
A Dartmouth study of ~1,900 security officials from 40+ NATO allies found 90% confidence judgments were only ~60% accurate; a two‑minute training markedly improved calibration. Read more: getnews.me/study-reveals-overconfid... #overconfidence #security
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The Democratic Party could benefit greatly from your insight, here. Yes, masses of people dislike being told what to do and say.
And, yes, Donald and his Trumpites, in their arrogance, have come to believe they can tell Americans what to do and say---and meet with no resistance.
#overconfidence
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E H Shepard illustration of Roo and Kanga
A quotation from **A. A. Milne**
> Kanga said to Roo, “Drink up your milk first, dear, and talk afterwards.” So Roo, who was drinking his milk, tried to say that he could do both at once … and had to be patted on the back and dried for quite a long time […]
[Original post on my-place.social]
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Collectivist Socioecology • The cost of being excluded from groups and relationships is extremely high. • To minimize the risk of being rejected and excluded, individuals must be sensitive to others' attitudes toward them and must not offend others (Yamagishi et al., 2008). → Not to Offend Others Strategy as an adaptive strategy (Hashimoto, Li, & Yamagishi, 2010; Yamagishi, Hashimoto, & Schug, 2008)
Method • Step 1: Students completed the Cognitive Reflection Test (CRT). • Step 2: They evaluated their score vs. average (default condition). → This time on a six-point scale. • Step 3: One month later, they repeated the evaluation with a bonus reward (bonus condition).
Results Default condition • About 59% judged themselves below average. • "Rather poor" was the most frequent answer. Bonus condition • The distribution shifted rightward. • Self-effacement disappeared, and mild self-enhancement appeared. A McNemar test: chi-squared(1) = 20.05, p < 0.001.
Take-Home Message • Cultural differences are real and important. • But we must go beyond demonstrating them. • Experiments should test the mechanisms-sometimes by creating conditions that make differences disappear. • Self-effacement in Japan can be seen not only as motivation, but also as a socioecological default strategy. • Culture-specific behaviors are best understood as adaptive strategies within context.
Some cultures and contexts breed #overconfidence; others breed underconfidence.
Most Japanese people ranked their reflection test performance below average, but a month later (when offered an accuracy bonus) they ranked themselves above average.
To follow Hirofumi Hashimoto's lab, see URLs above.👆
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"If just two minutes of training can substantially mitigate national security officials’ overconfidence, then national security bureaucracies can almost certainly identify and combat cognitive biases at large scales." Quote by Jeffrey Friedman from "The World Is More Uncertain than You Think . . ."
In the high-stakes world of national security, overconfidence can lead to disastrous outcomes. In Jeffrey Friedman's latest TNSR article, he reveals how just a little bit of training can help address this issue.
#NationalSecurity #CognitiveBias #Overconfidence #Leadership
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Overconfidence in bullshit detection linked to cognitive blind spots and narcissistic traits #Science #Psychology #CognitiveBias #Narcissism #Overconfidence
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Many #emotional #biases can hold others back and hold ourselves back, if we let them.
A few are:
#Overconfidence
Status quo
Illusion of control
#CognitiveBias
Recency #bias
Confirmation bias
Which one are you privy to and susceptible to?
#HoustonTexas #Texas #DallasTX #DallasTexas
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Bond yields are spiking globally as fiscal panic grips the UK, U.S., and France—yet investors piled into overpriced debt. That’s overconfidence bias: we always think “I’ll be the one who survives.” Spoiler: ouch.
#FiscalFolly #Overconfidence
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Retail invincibles: micro‑traders pump 20% of options—verge of regret
Retail traders now account for ~20% of the options market, buying when everyone else sells. That’s overconfidence bias writ large—believing your meme‑fueled instincts will outperform slow, sober data. #overconfidence
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