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3 months ago

India’s Inflation Edges Up as Food Prices Firm - India’s consumer inflation likely rose modestly in November as easing base effects and firmer food prices nudged CPI higher,...

India’s Inflation Edges Up as Food Prices Firm
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3 months ago

Growth Momentum Slows but Stays Strong for India’s Economy - India’s economy is estimated to have grown 7.3% in July–September, supported by rural demand and government spending despite weak...

Growth Momentum Slows but Stays Strong for India’s Economy
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7 months ago

Thailand economy likely lost steam in second quarter on weak domestic demand: Reuters poll By Rahul Trivedi BENGALURU (Reuters) -Thailand’s economic growth likely slowed in the second quarter as weak household consumption offset gains from strong exports, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy was estimated to have expanded 2.5% year-on-year in the April-June quarter, the August 12-15 survey of 21 economists showed. Estimates ranged between 1.6% and 2.9%. The economy grew 3.1% in the first three months of 2025, and the government is scheduled to release the second-quarter data on August 18. On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely expanded 0.3%, a smaller poll sample showed, slowing from 0.7% in the first quarter. ANZ economist Krystal Tan said high-frequency data showed a recovery in private investment but it was probably offset by a deterioration in private consumption, while strong import growth kept contribution from net exports to overall growth modest. "We expect growth to weaken materially in the coming quarters as the impact of higher U.S. tariffs filters through. The tourism sector is struggling and is unlikely to provide offsetting support," she said. Exports, a key growth driver, recorded double-digit gains for all months except April in the first half of the year, as companies rushed shipments before higher U.S. tariffs came into effect. The United States was Thailand’s biggest export market last year, accounting for 18.3% of total shipments, with a value of $55 billion. Poon Panichpibool, a markets strategist at Krung Thai Bank, said domestic demand was weak, with high household debt and slowing foreign tourist arrivals weighing on consumption. Private consumption contracted in April and June on a month-on-month basis and ticked up slightly in May, Bank of Thailand (BOT) data showed. To prop up domestic demand, the central bank cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to a three-year low of 1.50% on Wednesday. It was the fourth reduction in 10 months. BOT Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul said growth would moderate in the second half and stressed there was little risk of a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction. "We expect GDP growth to slow to 1.7% in the second half of 2025. Headwinds are piling up. Exports will slow as frontloading fades," said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank. A separate Reuters poll in July forecast growth of 1.3% and 0.9% in Q3 and Q4, respectively.

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7 months ago

Malaysia’s economy likely grew 4.5% in second quarter: Reuters poll By Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir BENGALURU (Reuters) -Malaysia’s economy grew at a steady pace last quarter as strong household consumption offset weak exports, a Reuters poll of economists showed. Advance estimates showed the country’s second-quarter gross domestic product was supported by growth in the services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting healthy domestic spending. The economy grew 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, in line with a preliminary estimate released in July, according to the August 5 to 12 Reuters poll of 23 economists. Forecasts for the data, due out on Friday, ranged from 3.9% to 4.6%. Growth in the first quarter was 4.4%. "High-frequency data across the board from retail sales, wholesale trade, motor vehicle sales, government spending, all of it suggests there has been a general improvement compared to the first quarter," said Lavanya Venkateswaran, senior ASEAN economist at OCBC Bank. "There is a definite resilience in domestic demand which has manifested in the second quarter, and there’s no sign anything is falling off a cliff just yet," she added. Exports were a weak spot. Trade activity slowed in the quarter with exports falling for a second straight month in June, down 3.5% from a year earlier, the lowest since December 2023 as shipments to China - Malaysia’s largest trading partner - fell 9.3%. That, along with the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 19% import tariffs, is expected to weigh on growth in the months ahead. Bank Negara Malaysia cut interest rates in July for the first time in five years to support the economy due to a weaker outlook and rising global trade uncertainty, raising the prospect of another cut this year. "The rate cut by BNM in its July meeting was cited as ’pre-emptive’ in the face of global uncertainty," said Denise Cheok, an economist at Moody’s Analytics. "The ringgit has remained relatively strong against the greenback in recent months, providing the central bank with room to cut interest rates without raising concerns over currency weakness," she said. A separate Reuters poll forecast Malaysia’s GDP to grow 4.2% in 2025, below the government’s 4.5% to 5.5% target range. With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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7 months ago

Indonesia’s economic growth likely slowed again in Q2: Reuters poll By Rahul Trivedi BENGALURU (Reuters) -Indonesia’s economy likely grew at its slowest pace in nearly four years last quarter as weak household spending weighed on overall growth and offset a boost from exports, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Southeast Asia’s largest economy likely grew 4.80% in the April-June quarter from a year earlier, slightly below the 4.87% expansion recorded in the first quarter, according to the July 25–August 1 poll of 26 economists. The government is due to announce the figures on Tuesday. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, gross domestic product (GDP) likely recovered from a 0.98% contraction in the January-March period to 3.70% growth. "Consumer confidence is waning, industrial activity is slowing and youth unemployment remains high. Real retail sales figures have also been weak throughout the second quarter as households remain cautious about spending due to stagnant real wage growth," said Jeemin Bang, associate economist at Moody’s Analytics. Indonesia’s Retail Sales Index contracted 0.3% in April but rose a modest 1.9% in May, indicating subdued household consumption. The government announced an over 24 trillion rupiah ($1.5 billion) fiscal stimulus package in June that included cash handouts and transport subsidies to stoke demand. Meanwhile, exports rose 11.29% in June, extending a positive trend throughout the second quarter as firms accelerated shipments ahead of a proposed 32% U.S. tariff which was later revised to 19%. Still, Bang cautioned that although only 10% of Indonesian exports go to the U.S., indirect effects from tariffs on other key trading partners and a weakening global outlook are likely to weigh on growth in the months ahead. Responding to softening domestic demand and sluggish global trade, Bank Indonesia cut interest rates last month. Governor Perry Warjiyo said the central bank would assess if there was room for further easing. A separate Reuters poll conducted in July showed economic growth in Indonesia would average 4.8% in 2025, near the lower end of the central bank’s forecast range of 4.6% to 5.4%. That remains well short of the 8% annual growth target President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to achieve during his five-year term, which began last year. ($1 = 16,488 rupiah)

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7 months ago

South Korea economy likely returned to growth in Q2: Reuters Poll By Rahul Trivedi BENGALURU (Reuters) -South Korea’s economy likely returned to growth last quarter, supported by a modest rebound in exports and a gradual recovery in domestic demand, a Reuters poll of economists found. After contracting 0.2% in the January-March period due to sluggish consumption and weak exports, Asia’s fourth-largest economy grew a seasonally adjusted 0.5% in the April-June quarter, according to the median forecast of 22 economists. If realised, growth would align with the Bank of Korea’s projection made in May. On a year-on-year basis, gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to have expanded 0.4% in the second quarter, following zero growth in the first three months of the year, based on the median estimate from 23 economists polled July 15-21. "South Korea’s second-quarter GDP is expected to rebound modestly," said Min Joo Kang, economist at ING. "Consumption showed signs of recovery, but a more meaningful improvement is likely in the third quarter, once the government’s consumption voucher programme takes effect. To cushion the economy against weak domestic demand and the potential fallout from U.S. tariffs, the government approved a supplementary budget of 13.8 trillion won ($9.9 billion) in May, followed by a larger 31.8 trillion won package in early July that includes giving all local citizens spending vouchers. Exports rose 4.3% in June after a 1.3% decline in May, driven by strong global demand for semiconductors. However, exports to the United States fell for a third consecutive month, slipping 0.5%, while shipments to China dropped 2.7%, marking the second straight monthly decline. "Although exports have been volatile they posted a gain, supported by strong orders for semiconductors, vessels and pharmaceutical goods," Kang added. "Construction, however, likely remained a drag on overall growth." South Korea, currently in trade negotiations with Washington, risks facing a 25% tariff on its exports to the United States if no deal is reached before the August 1 deadline. Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan said on Monday talks were in a "critical phase" with a wide range of outcomes still possible. "The South Korean government is working very hard to secure a deal, but whether the deal comes before August 1 is highly uncertain," said Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities. "If the two countries are willing to link everything to the deal - from reducing nontariff barriers, buying more U.S. produced goods, our involvement in Alaska projects and defense spending - the negotiations would need more time." Earlier this month the Bank of Korea held interest rates steady, but a majority of board members signaled the likelihood of a rate cut within the next three months, citing ’significant’ economic uncertainty stemming from potential U.S. tariffs. ($1 = 1,387.8 won) With valuations skyrocketing in 2024, many investors are uneasy putting more money into stocks. Unsure where to invest next? Get access to our proven portfolios and discover high-potential opportunities. In 2024 alone, ProPicks AI identified 2 stocks that surged over 150%, 4 additional stocks that leaped over 30%, and 3 more that climbed over 25%. That's an impressive track record. With portfolios tailored for Dow stocks, S&P stocks, Tech stocks, and Mid Cap stocks, you can explore various wealth-building strategies.

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8 months ago

India’s economy to hold top spot for growth, but underlying weaknesses remain: Reuters poll By Pranoy Krishna and Vivek Mishra BENGALURU (Reuters) -The Indian economy will grow at a mostly steady pace this fiscal year and next after marking a four-year low in 2024-25, according to economists polled by Reuters, who have mostly either kept their forecasts unchanged or made marginal upgrades. That stable outlook comes despite the Reserve Bank of India (NSE:BOI) cutting interest rates by a full percentage point since early this year, including an unexpected 50 basis point reduction on June 6, to boost growth in the face of rising global uncertainties. But the world’s fastest-growing major economy still earns that title mostly because government capital expenditure remains strong. Gross domestic product was forecast to expand 6.4% in the current fiscal year ending March 2026, the June 17-26 Reuters poll of 51 economists found. That is weaker than 6.5% reported for fiscal year 2024-25, which was the slowest since 2020-21. Growth was forecast to pick up modestly to 6.7% in FY 2026-27. That marks a slight upgrade from last month’s poll, which had medians of 6.3% and 6.5%, respectively. "Most of the growth that was happening was mainly because of the capital expenditures of the government, which will flatten out," said Indranil Pan, chief economist at Yes Bank (NSE:YESB). Private sector spending is still trailing far behind, and analysts generally agree the economy is still failing to create enough quality jobs for its large young population. "One of the biggest challenges for India at the current juncture ... is per capita income. Job creation has not been strong enough to generate the income needed to support sustainable economic growth," Pan added. Some economists said there may be downgrades to the GDP outlook in the coming months if New Delhi fails to secure a trade agreement with Washington before the 90-day pause on tariffs comes to an end on July 9. Trade talks between the two sides have stalled over auto parts, steel and farm goods, Indian officials with direct knowledge told Reuters on Thursday, dashing hopes of a deal ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs. But ANZ economist Dhiraj Nim wrote they have upgraded their FY 2026 growth forecast on hopes that the two countries would reach a trade deal. "Even so, growth will remain below potential in a challenging global environment, warranting policy support," he added. The RBI shifted its policy stance to "neutral" from "accommodative" on June 6, signalling a likely end to its shallowest rate-cutting cycle in over a decade. But economists are divided on whether there would be a long pause or another 25-basis-point cut in the final three months of the year. Just over half of respondents - 28 of 53 - expected the repo rate to stay at 5.50% in the fourth quarter, while the rest forecast it at 5.25% or lower. (Other stories from the June Reuters global economic poll) With BOI making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed BOI alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including BOI, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2024 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 30 or more. Is BOI poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.

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8 months ago

More than 70% of Japan firms see tariff impact within expectations, Reuters poll shows By Kiyoshi Takenaka TOKYO (Reuters) -A significant majority of Japanese firms have found the business impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs within expectations and have not found it necessary to change investment plans, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday. The United States has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries along with additional tariffs for many big trading partners including Japan, which could face a 24% tariff from July unless it can negotiate a deal. There is also a 25% tariff on cars, a particular sore point for Japan whose economy relies heavily on automobile exports to the United States. About 71% of respondents to Reuters’ survey said the impact of U.S. tariffs is within initial expectations, and 84% said they plan to stick to their investment plans for the current business year - typically April-March in Japan. "After all, the Trump administration ends in four years. If we don’t carry on with our long-term investments, we’ll lose out in competition with other Asian countries," a manager at a machinery manufacturer wrote in the poll. The survey was conducted by Nikkei Research for Reuters from June 4-13. Nikkei Research reached out to 504 companies and 220 responded on condition of anonymity. SALES TAX CUT On Japan’s sales tax, four out of 10 respondents said they oppose any tax reduction, whereas the remainder said there should be some form of cut, the survey showed. Cutting the tax to help the public cope with rising prices has become a major issue ahead of upper house elections scheduled for July. A 10% tax is applied to most goods and services. The tax for food and newspapers is 8%. The largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan has proposed cutting the 8% rate on food items to zero for one year. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, head of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, is opposed as sales tax revenue funds social security. "Opposition parties are oblivious to what the sales tax is for. It is the tax that ought to be raised," said an official at a metal and machinery maker. With three out of 10 people aged 65 or above, Japan is the world’s most advanced ageing society. A manager at a transportation company favoured a temporary, across-the-board sales tax cut "to fight inflation and stimulate consumption". About 63% of respondents said the government should not rely on bond issuance to fill revenue shortfall in the event of a sales tax cut, whereas 37% were in favour, the survey showed. "The ageing of the population will be advancing further and social security costs will be getting bigger. We should not turn to tax cuts or government bond issuance lightly," said a manager at a chemical company. On the composition of the ruling coalition after the upper house elections, 32% of respondents favoured the current ruling bloc of the LDP and junior partner Komeito, while 20% wanted the Democratic Party for the People to be a third partner, the survey showed. Last year, the LDP and Komeito lost their combined majority in the more powerful lower chamber, making it difficult for Ishiba to implement policies. The Democratic Party for the People quadrupled its lower house seats.

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9 months ago

Pakistan set to hold rates as Israel-Iran conflict overshadows growth push: Reuters poll Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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9 months ago

Polish central bank seen keeping rates steady on Wednesday: Reuters poll WARSAW (Reuters) - The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, after a downward adjustment in May, a Reuters poll showed, as wage dynamics remained volatile and economic growth was strong. All but one of the 30 analysts in the poll forecast the NBP would hold its key rate steady at 5.25%. The central bank cut the cost of credit by 50 basis points in May, the first easing since October 2023. NBP Governor Adam Glapinski said following the cut that it did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle and that it was doubtful the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) would risk a further cut in June. "In post-MPC comments on May 8, NBP President Adam Glapinski essentially pre-announced an on-hold decision in the June meeting," Goldman Sachs analysts economists wrote in a note, adding they expected the NBP to recommence easing in the third quarter, most likely July. According to HSBC analysts, positive inflation data, with core moderating faster than expected, warranted last month’s easing, but they pointed to wage volatility and stronger than expected first quarter economic growth as arguments against a subsequent cut. Data last month showed Poland’s corporate sector wage growth jumped sharply toward double-digit territory in April, from which it had fallen since December. On Monday, an economic output reading for the first quarter confirmed an earlier, faster than expected 3.2% annual growth reading. Meanwhile Polish consumer price inflation continued to ease in May, to 4.1% on the year, according to an early estimate, though it remained above the central bank’s target of 2.5% plus or minus one percentage point. "The outlook for headline inflation also hinges on the new electricity tariff to kick in from October, with the announcement due only in late summer/September," the HSBC analysts wrote. "This justifies a pause near term, in our view." Glapinski has pointed to the lifting of the government’s electricity price cap as an inflation risk. Still, DM AFS brokerage economist Damian Rosinski saw space for back-to-back easings as soon as June. "Data shows that despite the MPC cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in May, the real interest rate – calculated as the difference between the CPI rate and the NBP rate – remains clearly positive, at a level of over one percentage point," he said. "In my opinion, the data opens the door to MPC rate cuts by 25 bp at each subsequent meeting until the end of the year...starting with June. Or other variants of aggressive cuts, including a cut of 50 basis points in June, for the next few quarters." He added that Poland’s presidential election result shouldn’t change much and a rate cut on June 4 was highly likely.

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9 months ago

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9 months ago

Weak US economic outlook persists despite brief trade truce with China: Reuters poll BENGALURU (Reuters) - The outlook for the U.S. economy remains weak despite a temporary cooling of the U.S.-China trade war, a Reuters poll of economists showed, with a debate over the country’s fiscal health hanging in the balance. A 90-day truce to temporarily slash steep U.S.-China import duties has marginally reduced U.S. recession risks, but the fiscal outlook is worsening ahead of an imminent vote in Congress on President Donald Trump’s sweeping tax-cut bill following a sovereign credit rating downgrade from Moody’s on Friday. Economists in a May 14-21 Reuters poll were unanimous the Trump administration’s policies have hurt the economy, with over 55% saying "significantly hurt". But after big downgrades to their growth and upgrades to inflation forecasts in April, economists kept these broadly unchanged in May. "Moody’s is likely sending a message that the proposed tax bill is fiscally profligate... unless there is an abrupt move, the risk is that by the time Washington gets serious about the U.S.’s fiscal problems, tariffs might be the only available lever to meaningfully reduce the deficit," noted Aditya Bhave, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America. "Another round of large tariff hikes would probably be more painful for the economy than a less expansionary fiscal package." The economy, which contracted 0.3% last quarter largely due to a record surge in imports, is forecast to grow 1.5% this quarter. It would grow just 1.4% this year, a sharp slowdown from last year’s 2.8%. Next year, it was forecast to expand 1.5%. The median probability of a U.S. recession over the coming year did, however, decline to 35% from 45% in April. Economists barely changed their views on inflation, expected to average above the Fed’s 2% target until at least 2027, echoing consumer expectations which are already at a multi-decade high. "The bad news is the detente virtually locks in a slow growth, sticky inflation environment as the base case for the U.S. economy. The effective tariff rate at 13% is still substantially higher than where it was coming into the year (around 2%)... Policy uncertainty is high and recession risks remain elevated," said Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley. Fed officials have highlighted elevated risks of a resurgence in inflation, primarily due to U.S. tariff policies and appear to be in no hurry to cut rates anytime soon. The federal funds rate has stayed in a 4.25%-4.50% range since the start of this year. Just over half of economists, 52 of 103, predicted the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would resume cutting its key interest rate next quarter, most likely in September. That was in line with interest rate futures pricing. A significant minority, 25, expected the reduction in the final quarter and 18 saw no cuts this year. Only eight forecast a June cut, compared to nearly 40% expecting at least one reduction by end-Q2 in the April survey. There was no clear consensus on where the rate would be by end-2025. But about three-quarters of economists, 74 of 103, predicted it in a 3.75%-4.00% range or higher, a bigger majority compared to two-thirds in April. "The two pauses (on tariffs) add a new degree of uncertainty to the outlook for both growth and inflation," said Chris Low, chief economist at FHN Financial. "FOMC participants insist on seeing all of the inflation directly attributable to tariffs before cutting rates so they might have to wait until the fourth quarter, or even early next year, before they have sufficient clarity to do anything." (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)

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9 months ago

UK economy to grow 1.0% in 2025; sentiment improves slightly: Reuters poll hereremove ads Latest comments Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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10 months ago

Thai growth likely slowed in first quarter on weak investment and consumption: Reuters poll About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

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10 months ago

Mexican economy seen flat in first quarter: Reuters poll MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s economy likely remained flat in the first three months of 2025 as a result of uncertainty generated by U.S. President Donald Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) likely sat at 0.0% in the first quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, according to the median forecast of 15 analysts polled by Reuters, compared to a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter decline in the last three months of 2024. Analysts have for months warned that the Mexican economy may have shrunk again early this year, which would imply a technical recession. However, the latest data suggests better-than-expected activity, though performance likely remained soft. "The reality is that the country is facing a complex economic scenario, where external and internal factors are coming together to play against it," said lender CIBanco. When compared to the same period a year earlier, however, analysts polled by Reuters expected the economy to have expanded some 0.6%, a touch above the 0.5% year-on-year growth recorded in the fourth quarter of last year. Mexico’s GDP data is set to be published on Wednesday. Another Reuters poll released on Monday suggested that the trade shock generated by the United States’ tariff threats could cause Latin America’s No. 2 economy to expand just 0.2% this year, down from 1.2% growth through 2024. Last week, the International Monetary Fund significantly cut its forecast for Mexico’s economic growth.

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11 months ago

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11 months ago

Mexican peso to trade stable in coming months as U.S. escalates tariffs: Reuters poll BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - The Mexican peso is set to trade relatively stable in coming months even as U.S. President Donald Trump escalates his use of tariffs, including a fresh barrage to be announced on Wednesday, a Reuters poll showed. After collapsing nearly 23% in 2024, the peso is up 1.8% year-to-date, supported by Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s recent success in negotiations to moderate Trump’s initial tariff push. In six months, the local currency is forecast to drop marginally 0.4% to 20.55 per U.S. dollar from 20.46 on Monday, according to the median estimate of 26 foreign exchange specialists polled March 27-April 1. Many forecasts were based on the assumption that any new tariffs on Mexican products would be limited in scope and short-lived, with the Mexican and U.S. governments eventually reaching middle ground again on trade issues. However, Christian Admin de la Huerta Avila, an economist at Finamex, said "an announcement implying a significant deterioration in the trade outlook could put additional pressure on the exchange rate." Trump will announce reciprocal tariff rates on what he has called "Liberation Day" on April 2, after implementing levies on aluminium, steel and automobiles, along with increased tariffs on all goods from China. For now, the only carve-out for Mexico and Canada would be to deduct the value of any U.S. content from the 25% tariffs on vehicles and parts. Mexican officials have sought "preferential treatment" in the new trade scheme. Still, there are no indications the U.S. will honor previously established protections in the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. "A lot will also depend on Mexico’s government response ... there is a probability of retaliation by Mexico and that could increase the temporary volatility of the peso," said James Salazar, deputy director of analysis at CIBanco. For the 12-month period, the peso is seen shedding 1.6% to 20.80 per U.S. dollar, according to the consensus view in the survey. Meanwhile, Brazil warned last week that global trade was at risk of being "weaponised" and World Trade Organization strains were likely to worsen before dissipating. Brazil’s high interest rates are expected to at least partially shield the currency. The real is forecast to weaken 3.6% to 5.91 per U.S. dollar in 12 months from 5.70 on Monday. The central bank’s tightening campaign to cool inflation is still not over, a Brazilian policymaker signaled this week. The Selic benchmark rate stands at 14.25%, above Mexico’s key rate at 9.00%. "Brazil is in a cycle of monetary contraction, resulting in a growing interest rate differential with the United States," analysts at 4intelligence consultancy wrote. "This may help counterbalance fiscal problems, leading to relative stability in the USD/BRL exchange rate over the coming year." (Other stories from the April Reuters foreign exchange poll) (Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; additional polling by Mumal Rathore and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru; Editing by Joe Bavier)

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Profit Trading USA

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11 months ago

Click Subscribe. #TurkishEconomy #Inflation #MarketTurmoil #EconomicForecast #ReutersPoll

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Profit Trading USA

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11 months ago

Mexico headline inflation likely down in first half of March: Reuters poll MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Mexico’s annual inflation likely slowed in the first half of March, according to a Reuters poll, supporting bets that the central bank will lower its benchmark interest rate again next week by half a percentage point. The median estimate from 10 participants forecast an annual rate of 3.76% for the general consumer price index in the first two weeks of the month, below the rate of 3.81% registered in the second half of February. Core inflation, which strips out especially volatile food and energy prices, is estimated to decrease to 3.56%, its lowest level since May 2020. "Given that inflation has stayed within the Bank of Mexico’s target range over the last five fortnights, we continue to expect a 50 basis point (bp) cut at the March 27 meeting," the financial group Actinver said in an analysis note. Poll participants expect prices to have risen by 0.22% compared to the prior two-week period, while the core index is expected to increase by 0.24%. The official data will be released on Monday. The central bank, which has an inflation target range of 3%, plus or minus one percentage point, accelerated its pace of cuts last month, lowering its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 9.5%. The bank has stated that it will consider similar adjustments in the future if inflation keeps cooling and allows for it. Adding pressure on the monetary authority, the economy contracted by 0.6% at the end of 2024 and analysts do not rule out a new setback in the current first quarter due to looming trade tensions with the United States.

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Lf.Egalitarian

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1 year ago

Trump Approval Drops as Americans Worry About Economy: Poll A recent Reuters poll shows that President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dropped as more Americans grow concerned about the economy.

Recent #ReutersPoll: 53% of Americans now think the economy is headed in the wrong direction, up from 43% in late Jan. Trump’s approval for handling the economy also dropped from 43% to 39%. ...wait until grandma/pa's #SocialSecurity payments becomes intermittent.
dailyboulder.com/trump-approv...

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Posts tagged #ReutersPoll