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Original post on mementomori.social

Jan-Willem Romeijn on päivittänyt SEP-entryään tilastotieteen filosofiasta,

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/statistics/

#tilastotiede #tiede #tieteenfilosofia #filosofia #statistics #philosophyofScience #epistemology #probability #induction #confirmation #evidence #learning #reasoning […]

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hashtag#bayesianism hashtag#machinelearning hashtag#conformalprediction

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#bayesianism

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As conformal prediction continues its ascent, it is replacing bayesianism in pretty much every application.

Bayesianism is the obsolete past, conformal prediction is the future.

#conformalprediction #bayesianism

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Funny coming from the guy who ran half a million Bayesian Monte Carlo sims and still botched the last election forecast

#bayesianism

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Even AI sees through the futility of Bayesianism.

#bayesianism

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❌ Prone to instability
❌ Disrupt base models
❌ Tough to build and maintain

🤷‍♂️Confidence in such a framework? 🙅‍♂️Seems doubtful ⁉️

TL;DR hashtag#bayesianism often brings more problems than solutions
hashtag#DataScience hashtag#MachineLearning hashtag#uncertainty

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Vincenzo Crupi has revised his SEP-entry on Confirmation, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/confirmation/

#confirmation #reasoning #logic #epistemology #philosophy #sep #revised #hypotheses #science #concepts #filosofia #tiede #evidence #induction #probability #bayesianism #statistics

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hashtag#bayesianism hashtag#machinelearning hashtag#conformalprediction

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Put simply: GPs are the Theranos of ML methods—too good to be true, propped up by hype, and ultimately a monumental waste of time and resources.

#bayesianism

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It’s time we stop pretending it works and move on to methods that actually deliver on their promises. Conformal prediction shows how it should be done: honest, calibrated, and dependable.


#bayesianism

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Context: following bayesianis models fiasco, Bank of England is relocating to … Leeds.

#bayesianism

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Want to know how bayesianism contributed to global financial crisis and torched the Challenger?

My new article got it covered.

#bayesianism

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#bayesianism

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Yes

#bayesianism

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Bayesianism in textbooks. Bayesianism in reality.

#bayesianism

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hashtag#bayesianism hashtag#machinelearning hashtag#conformalprediction

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#bayesianism

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Friends don't let friends to use quasi-science.

#bayesianism

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Probability predictions are produced directly by awesome technologies such as conformal predictive distributions at the click of a button with a few lines of code.

#bayesianism #conformalprediction

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Anyone doing research in probabilistic prediction should be required to read the Gneiting and Katzfuss paper before releasing more hot air.

Bayesianism is an academic virus 🦠

#bayesianism

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Gaussian processes are the SMOTE of Uncertainty Quantification. The ultimate #snakeoil.

#bayesianism

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Gaussian Processes are snake oil. This needs to be said repeatedly. What’s worse than using or researching GPs? Pretending they come with validity guarantees. A five-year-old could write a few lines of code, run them, and see they don’t deliver coverage.

#bayesianism

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#bayesianism

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arxiv.org/pdf/2407.0...

#Bayesianism #UncertaintyTheater

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Abduction (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy)

Igor Douven has revised his SEP-entry on Abduction, https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/abduction/

#abduction #reasoning #logic #epistemology #tieto #filosofia #paattely #philosophy #explanation #induction #peirce #bayesianism #selitys #skepticism

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Bayesianism strikes again —some people claim Farrell's book is commendable, but in reality, it contains glaring gaps, even in foundational concepts that every student should be well-acquainted with.

#bayesianism

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#bayesianism

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If you're looking for real uncertainty, stop guessing with Bayes. Start guaranteeing with conformal prediction.

#uq #bayesianism #conformalprediction

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