Latest posts tagged with #91L on Bluesky
But maybe diff here b/w #91L vs #Gabrielle, #Humberto, & #Imelda is that instability in late Sep is higher than early Sep & every little bit helps when trying to aggregate convection to get TC genesis.
I still think @btangywx.bsky.social’s argument that mid-lat synoptic variability matters too.
Gotcha… so your argument is an earlier CCKW helped the waves convectively enough to get them over the line to genesis before more neg large scale conditions took back over?
It’s funny how sometimes it works, & other times like #91L it can’t quite get to the point where WISHE can sustain convection.
Wrapping up this post from a week ago: Here is event verification as of 12 UTC Friday 12 Sep 2025.
All quiet in the N Leeward Islands today. A tropical wave is nearing the islands, but it's not the same system as ex #91L which dissipated long ago.
Be careful when choosing your weather info source.
D98 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
#Invest91L has no chance to become a TC
Next invest no: #Invest92L/ #AL92/ #92L
Next name: #Gabrielle
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L
D98 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
#Invest91L has 20% chance in 2 and 7 days to be TC
#LesserAntilles #PuertoRico #USVI #Haiti #DominicanRepublic interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #PRwx #USVIwx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L #Gabrielle #Hispaniola
I think it is time to re-up my thread again from last month.
Posts like these on #91L do not help with public messaging. Please do not name a system before it occurs & it is not helpful to issue a track/intensity forecast if that pre-genesis system is not a short-term land threat.
Just my 2 🪙s.
Good news! Yesterday I showed some model scenarios of #91L that began to show the disturbance falling apart in the Atlantic. And today, that trend continues.
As of Saturday AM, the chances for 91L to become a depression or storm have dropped from high chance to low chance, according to NHC.
D98 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8am EDT
#Invest91L has 30% chance in 2 and 7 days to be TC
#LesserAntilles #PuertoRico #USVI #Haiti #DominicanRepublic interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #PRwx #USVIwx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L #Gabrielle #Hispaniola
Good morning! We are now down to 30% development chances for #91L. Models overnight show nothing. Will keep watching but seems this one is over.
D97 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 8pm EDT
#Invest91L has 30% chance in 2 days, 60% in 7 days to be TC
#LesserAntilles #PuertoRico #USVI #Haiti #DominicanRepublic interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #PRwx #USVIwx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L #Gabrielle #Hispaniola
D97 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
#Invest91L has 40% chance in 2 days, 70% in 7 to be TC
#LesserAntilles #PuertoRico #USVI #Haiti #DominicanRepublic interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #PRwx #USVIwx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L #Gabrielle #Hispaniola
Good evening all, just back from celebrating the wedding of good friends tonight. Even better news in the tropics department as #91L has continued to downtrend on the spaghetti models. The 0z intensity models now show a tropical storm as the maximum potential.
Ashes to ashes. Dust to dust. Saharan dust may deal a death blow to Tropical Invest #91L. It looks paltry right now and it may dissapate before it has a chance to develop. Models are nowhere near as bull-ish on development as they have been. NHC chance down from 90% to 70%. 1/
NHC lowered the development potential for Invest #91L from 90 to 70 percent in 7 days, and from 60% to 40% in 2 days. NHC takes its cues from the models, and these show less consensus on the formation of a tropical storm. The wave is moving very slowly and faces challenges. I continue monitoring.
NHC has lowered development chances to 40% over 48 hours and 70% overall for #91L as of the 2 PM update. Expect further decreases if models continue to show no development.
💯 thank you #91L
Good news... #91L the only thing out there. NHC says it will likely develop. Some scenarios bring it to near Puerto Rico and other scenarios have it falling apart before ever getting there.
Currently not a credible threat to the Gulf Coast. Monitoring its progress into next week as moves westward.
Invest 91L in the open Atlantic ocean, showing decent low-level structure but not much convection.
200 hPA VP anomalies from August 6 to Sept 21 as forecast by the GFS. Blue means favourable for TCG (rising air), red means unfavourable (sinking air).
Invest #91L is currently struggling to maintain convection, however, it appears that a weak CCKW is moving through the Atlantic starting today and over the next couple days, which might help it get together.
If it doesn't develop in the next 3 or days, I would say that it won't develop at all.
The tropics are heating up, but one area of potential development has been making the rounds online lately. I break down what we know about this tropical wave, #91L, and why its future is far from certain.
Unofficial #HCCTWO
(1) #Kiko a Category 4 again, threatening #Hawaii
(2) #Peipah over #Japan
(3) #Lorena now a RL
(4) #91L threatening the Lesser Antilles
(5) A land depression could form over #India
#wx #hurricane #typhoon #cyclone
D96 ATL #HurricaneSeason2025 2pm EDT
AOI in MDR now #Invest91L has 60% chance in 2 days, 90% in 7 to be TC
#LesserAntilles #PuertoRico #USVI #Haiti #DominicanRepublic interests to watch closely
#Wxx #Wxtwitter #TropicsWx #BlueSkyWx #PRwx #USVIwx #HurricaneSeason #AL91 #91L #Gabrielle #Hispaniola
90% chance of development on Invest #91L. There is an unusually large amount of uncertainty with both the level of development/ intensity and also the eventual track. At this point all that can be known with any certainty is that the Lesser Antilles will need to be on alert in about a week from now.
09.04.2025 -@DTNWeather Invest 91L afternoon advisory
09/04 #Invest91L afternoon advisory: #91L remains a broad area of low pressure within a tropical wave, has improved in org. but addtl improvement is necessary to be a TD or TS. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor closely into next week. https://dtn.link/kogj96
#ThinkWeather
Thursday video on:
- Tropical Storm #Lorena as it impacts Northwestern #Mexico
- Hurricane #Kiko and its potential impacts to #Hawaii next week
- Invest #91L and its future as it tracks west towards the Caribbean Islands
youtu.be/3mouy6sAVBA?...
