At the heart of the conflict is the port of Assab in Eritrea's far south. It is about 40 miles from the Ethiopian border at its closest point and between 50 and 55 miles from Ethiopia's Afar Region along the old main road that passes through Kombolcha. The port of Assab is too close to Ethiopia for the Ethiopian government to consider engaging in conflict there, while its position also makes it hard for Eritrea to defend it effectively. For Isaias, losing Assab would shatter the myth of invincibility that sustains his rule, after he led the defeat of one of the strongest armies in sub-Saharan Africa during Eritrea's 30-year liberation war against Ethiopia. For Abiy, capturing it would crown his promise to restore Ethiopia's maritime future and establish a naval force.
On the map, Assab is a dot; in both capitals, it is destiny. For Ethiopia, the port represents a lost limb - proof that landlocked status can be reversed. For Eritrea, it is the fortress of sovereignty. A dockworker who spent years working at the base leased by the UAE at Assab recalled the day Emirati ships left in 2021. "They took everything - cranes, tanks, even the air conditioners," he told New Lines. "Since then, the port sleeps."
The withdrawal stripped Eritrea of a wealthy patron. The UAE turned east toward Somaliland and Sudan, drawing closer to Addis Ababa with loans, drones and currency deals.
The Afar-Tigray-Sudan triangle bristles with shifting loyalties. Command lines blur easily. In Tigray, a silent coup by some army generals in October 2024 replaced the Tigray Interim Administration with a hard-line TPLF faction led by Debretsion, who is allied to Eritrea. Young TDF members demonstrated for five days in a row in various towns, demanding higher pay and improvements to their livelihoods.
They blocked roads. "We are not the TPLF's army," some of them shouted. To observers in Asmara, such unrest signals a lost opportunity - and that Tigray might not fight with Eritrea against Addis Ababa in a new war.
Eritrea, Ethiopia and the missteps that could lead to war: Abiy Ahmed’s naval ambitions and Isaias Afwerki’s proxy tactics are testing a fragile peace, which is one miscalculation away from unraveling
newlinesmag.com/argument/eri... By Mohamed Kheir Omer #Assab #Eritrea #Ethiopia