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Years of #Ethiopian pressure — militarily, economically (even avoiding Eritrea’s #Assab port), diplomatically — alongside sanctions didn’t collapse #Eritrea. Instead, they reinforced a fortress-style state: durable leadership, strong internal control & relative internal stability

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Pres #Afwerki met a #Saudi delegation led by Deputy FM Al-Khereiji & agreed to fast-track existing deals. Likely next steps: port feasibility studies ( #Assab /Massawa), maritime security coordination, energy & infra projects, fisheries & activation of joint economic committees. 🌍

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#Ethiopia’s latest letter ironically accuses #Eritrea of aggression while also naming #Assab as a key issue for negotiation, knowing Eritreans don’t negotiate about their land. To some observers, it looks like Addis Ababa is building a narrative that could justify future action.

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The #Eritrean gov keeps backing the Somali gov despite the fact that Mogadishu grew closer to Addis after Turkish led talks. When Ethiopia wanted to sign a MOU w #Somaliland, Eritrea supported Somalia. When Addis wanted to Annex #Assab, the Somali gov did not return the favor.

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The National: Cairo increases pressure on Ethiopia through port deals w #Eritrea (in #Assab) & Djibouti. Plan: to increase capacity & create berths for warships & the scope to post small elite military contingents. The discreet signing took place in Oct. when #Afwerki visited 🇪🇬

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While the UN chief used balanced language its clear that the UN supports the legal border as defined by the EEBC. The EEBC border includes #Assab inside #Eritrea. Ethiopia stands alone in its illegal claim of an #Eritrean port in order to establish a navy & project power.

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The Bure Corridor's Fate | Decoded Intel The fate of a narrow desert corridor in the Horn of Africa will not only decide the future of a vital port of Assab but could ignite a conflict that redraws the map of the Red Sea and reshapes global…

The fate of a narrow desert corridor in the Horn of Africa will not only decide the future of a vital port of Assab but could ignite a conflict that redraws the map of the Red Sea and reshapes global trade.

Read the article:
decodedintel.com/the-bure-cor...

#Ethiopia #Eritrea #Assab #Geopolitics

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That's the 8th time we've visited Eritrea 🇪🇷
The last time was 1 month, 1 week, 2 days ago : ቤተክርስትያን ቅድስት ማርያም ዓሰብ st. Marry church Assab كنيسة مريم العذراء عصب in #Assab - https://twitter.com/churchesofnote/status/TESTID

#VisitEritrea
#StepByStep 👣
#PlacesOfWorship
5/6

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At the heart of the conflict is the port of Assab in Eritrea's far south. It is about 40 miles from the Ethiopian border at its closest point and between 50 and 55 miles from Ethiopia's Afar Region along the old main road that passes through Kombolcha. The port of Assab is too close to Ethiopia for the Ethiopian government to consider engaging in conflict there, while its position also makes it hard for Eritrea to defend it effectively. For Isaias, losing Assab would shatter the myth of invincibility that sustains his rule, after he led the defeat of one of the strongest armies in sub-Saharan Africa during Eritrea's 30-year liberation war against Ethiopia. For Abiy, capturing it would crown his promise to restore Ethiopia's maritime future and establish a naval force.

At the heart of the conflict is the port of Assab in Eritrea's far south. It is about 40 miles from the Ethiopian border at its closest point and between 50 and 55 miles from Ethiopia's Afar Region along the old main road that passes through Kombolcha. The port of Assab is too close to Ethiopia for the Ethiopian government to consider engaging in conflict there, while its position also makes it hard for Eritrea to defend it effectively. For Isaias, losing Assab would shatter the myth of invincibility that sustains his rule, after he led the defeat of one of the strongest armies in sub-Saharan Africa during Eritrea's 30-year liberation war against Ethiopia. For Abiy, capturing it would crown his promise to restore Ethiopia's maritime future and establish a naval force.

On the map, Assab is a dot; in both capitals, it is destiny. For Ethiopia, the port represents a lost limb - proof that landlocked status can be reversed. For Eritrea, it is the fortress of sovereignty. A dockworker who spent years working at the base leased by the UAE at Assab recalled the day Emirati ships left in 2021. "They took everything - cranes, tanks, even the air conditioners," he told New Lines. "Since then, the port sleeps."
The withdrawal stripped Eritrea of a wealthy patron. The UAE turned east toward Somaliland and Sudan, drawing closer to Addis Ababa with loans, drones and currency deals.
The Afar-Tigray-Sudan triangle bristles with shifting loyalties. Command lines blur easily. In Tigray, a silent coup by some army generals in October 2024 replaced the Tigray Interim Administration with a hard-line TPLF faction led by Debretsion, who is allied to Eritrea. Young TDF members demonstrated for five days in a row in various towns, demanding higher pay and improvements to their livelihoods.
They blocked roads. "We are not the TPLF's army," some of them shouted. To observers in Asmara, such unrest signals a lost opportunity - and that Tigray might not fight with Eritrea against Addis Ababa in a new war.

On the map, Assab is a dot; in both capitals, it is destiny. For Ethiopia, the port represents a lost limb - proof that landlocked status can be reversed. For Eritrea, it is the fortress of sovereignty. A dockworker who spent years working at the base leased by the UAE at Assab recalled the day Emirati ships left in 2021. "They took everything - cranes, tanks, even the air conditioners," he told New Lines. "Since then, the port sleeps." The withdrawal stripped Eritrea of a wealthy patron. The UAE turned east toward Somaliland and Sudan, drawing closer to Addis Ababa with loans, drones and currency deals. The Afar-Tigray-Sudan triangle bristles with shifting loyalties. Command lines blur easily. In Tigray, a silent coup by some army generals in October 2024 replaced the Tigray Interim Administration with a hard-line TPLF faction led by Debretsion, who is allied to Eritrea. Young TDF members demonstrated for five days in a row in various towns, demanding higher pay and improvements to their livelihoods. They blocked roads. "We are not the TPLF's army," some of them shouted. To observers in Asmara, such unrest signals a lost opportunity - and that Tigray might not fight with Eritrea against Addis Ababa in a new war.

Eritrea, Ethiopia and the missteps that could lead to war: Abiy Ahmed’s naval ambitions and Isaias Afwerki’s proxy tactics are testing a fragile peace, which is one miscalculation away from unraveling
newlinesmag.com/argument/eri... By Mohamed Kheir Omer #Assab #Eritrea #Ethiopia

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A map showing the great circle route from Assab in Eritrea to a map pin at Saint Elizabeth Church, Fefan Main Road, FM, United States of America

A map showing the great circle route from Assab in Eritrea to a map pin at Saint Elizabeth Church, Fefan Main Road, FM, United States of America

Saint Elizabeth Church in #Chuuk, #Micronesia -🇫🇲 is around 12,109 km or 7,568 miles from our previous place of worship Assab in #Assab, #Eritrea - 🇪🇷
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Wikipedia:Contributing to Wikipedia - Wikipedia As a new contributor, you may feel a little overwhelmed by Wikipedia. Don't worry

ቤተክርስትያን ቅድስት ማርያም ዓሰብ st. Marry church Assab كنيسة مريم العذراء عصب in #Assab, #Eritrea has no wikipedia page, why not become an editor and add one?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Contribut...

#VisitEritrea
#StepByStep 👣
#PlacesOfWorship
4/6

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A map showing the great circle route from Kayar in Senegal to a map pin at st. Marry church Assab, Assab Bypass, Assab, Eritrea

A map showing the great circle route from Kayar in Senegal to a map pin at st. Marry church Assab, Assab Bypass, Assab, Eritrea

ቤተክርስትያን ቅድስት ማርያም ዓሰብ st. Marry church Assab كنيسة مريم العذراء عصب in #Assab, #Eritrea -🇪🇷 is around 6,659 km or 4,162 miles from our previous place of worship Kayar in #Kayar, #Senegal - 🇸🇳
2/6

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#SaudiArabia sees potential in #Assab. It could be a competing logistics hub as #Djibouti’s port is crowded but Ethiopia would need to recognize #Eritrea’s sovereignty first. Its also ideal for energy infra (oil/gas) or a niche industrial/logistics hub targeting Gulf Africa trade

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The #US #UK & others are trying to stop #Addis before #Ethiopia starts an imperialist war against #Eritrea for its port #Assab. They asked #Asmara to negotiate but the #Eritreans arent gonna talk while a gun is pointed at them. Pressure on #Abiy mounting while #Afwerki is relaxed

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The first step towards deescalation betw #Ethiopia & #Eritrea is a public & formal reaffirmation by #Addis that it respects #Eritrea’s intl. recognized #sovereignty incl. #Assab. Without this, talks cant proceed nor can confidence building measures start. #Asmara #Amhara #Sudan

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The #Ethiopian general claims intl. law supports #Ethiopia’s claim to #Assab yet there is no legal basis. The distance argument is generally not accepted. Historically Assab was never an integral part of #Ethiopia but owned by local sultanates. It is intl. recognized as #Eritrea

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#Arbiterz: #AFDB partners w #EthiopianAirlines to build #Africa’s largest #airport worth $10 billion. EA is expected to raise 20% while the AFDB would take the lead to secure the 80%. A risky move (more debt & #Addis is already heavily indebted) but which could pay off. #Amhara #Houthi #Sudan #Assab

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If the #Italian led projects in #Eritrea succeed it is likely they serve as a confidence signal. #Rome’s engagement w #Asmara provides political cover & could attract niche investors. #Eritrean cooperating in the mining sector has strengthened its case for attracting #FDI. #Assab #Trump #Sudan #AU

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#Ethiopia’s #Abiy has been powerless as #Tigray’s #TPLF & #Eritrea grow closer & he now tries to unleash TPF into southern Tigray. He also misinformed the intl. community about #Asmara & TPLF’s plan to attack #Welkait leaving out #Addis actually eyes the #Eritrean port of #Assab. #Trump #Houthi

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It's been such a great pleasure to present at this year #ASSAB conference. And such an honour to be chosen among the Highly commended presentations. See you all in Adelaide next year!

@fairywrensanu.bsky.social @animbehav.bsky.social

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The brotherly ppl of #Ethiopia & #Eritrea need peace. An #ENDF attack on #Assab would very likely trigger an #Eritrean #Tigrayan counter from #Tigray & the north pincering 🇪🇹’s #Afar & cutting #ENDF supply lines. Local Afar might assist #EDF🇪🇷. #Amhara #Fano would grab its chance. #Houthi #Sudan

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#Trump🇺🇸 backed out of the #Redsea quick after losing 2 jets & 7 multi mln #reaper drones (shot down by the #Houthis). US spent > $1Bln but Houthis dispersed & concealed. Their #airdefense is surprisingly effective. A lesson for those dependent on #drones like #Ethiopia. #Eritrea #Gaza #Moscow #Assab

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The strategic alliance betw #Eritrea & #Tigray’s #TPLF is a sign. geopolitical shift that forces #Addis to switch back from offensive to internal survival mode. It dramatically reduces #Ethiopia’s leverage for #Redsea access & makes #Assab no longer viable. #Asmara #Sudan #Houthi #Israeli #Trump

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While #Ethiopia’s🇪🇹 #Abiy tries to show how developed Ethiopia is w #drone shows & a $10 bln palace, the healthcare system collapses w medical workers being arrested for demanding salaries. #Addis cant provide basic services like health & safety. #Eritrea #Sudan #Houthi #Assab #Trump #Israeli #Egypt

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More escalation betw #India & #Pakistan possible as #NewDelhi for the 1st time attacked targets deep inside 🇵🇰. #Pakistanis back the #Pakistani army as it performed well against the #Indian army. #IMF approved a $1.4bln loan to #Islamabad which annoyed India. #Kashmir #Gaza #Kiev #Hindu #Islam #Assab

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The opening of more than one border crossing betw #Tigray & #Eritrea with active trade & no #ENDF presence is a major blow to #Abiy’s political authority, image & strategic position, both domestically & regionally. #Amhara #Addis #Ethiopia #Sudan #Israel #Ukraine #Somalia #Assab #Africa #Habesha

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#Ethiopia🇪🇹 & #Eritrea need peace: #Asmara🇪🇷 & the #TPLF seem to be in a strategic alliance. If #Abiy keeps his aggressive stance, TPLF will likely get logistic help & strategic depth. #ENDF’s advanced weaponry will be less effective if TPLF can enter #Eritrean lands. #Assab #Sudan #Khartoum #Somalia

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#Russia has not been able to get a deal w #Syria’s leaders to keep its military bases. #HTS guards control the entrances of the bases. #Moscow was unable to supply #Damascus of weaponry as it increasingly imports weapons itself. #Putin #Ukraine #Kiev #NATO #Gaza #Khartoum #Assab #Israeli #Zelensky

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#Eritrea & #Ethiopia need peace. A war will be very costly as #Eritrea maintains a massive battle hardened standing army. #Asmara reinforced its southern borders & has short supply lines to the home bases while #Ethiopia’s are more interior centered (1/3) . #Sudan #Houthis #Assab #Israel #Darfur

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#Ethiopia is sign. increasing its military capabilities & presence through arms acquisition (modern combat drones, fighter jets etc.), naval expansion & forced conscription. A large part of the military consists of #Oromos. #Addis #Asmara #Eritrea #Assab #Somalia #Amhara #Tigray #Israel #Ukraine

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