#USRecession

Trump’s tariff u-turn averted hard landing, but US recession risks climbing: UBS Investing.com -- President Donald Trump’s u-turn on Liberation Day tariffs may have spared the U.S. economy from a hard landing, but UBS warns that recession risks are climbing once again, backed by a cocktail of hard data, rates, and credit signals. “Our hard data model points to a recession probability of 46%,” UBS economists wrote, noting that April saw a broad-based weakening across the key components that consistently lead the business cycle. After showing signs of stabilization earlier in the year, UBS’s hard data factor—which tracks production, employment, capex, housing, income, and spending—took a notable leg down in April. The indicator, which has a track record of turning negative before official recessions, “increased 12 percentage points in April," UBS analysts said in a recent note. The analysts cautioned, however, that some volatility could be linked to tariff pull-forward effects, but emphasized that the weakness was “widespread across the factor components.” The yield curve signal, another closely watched recession gauge, has also started to flare up again after fading at the start of the year. “The yield curve model points to a recession probability of 18%,” UBS said, up from earlier in the year but not yet at crisis levels. Credit conditions, meanwhile, are flashing even greater caution. “The credit metric-based recession probability model points to 48%,” UBS said, its highest reading since the pandemic, reflecting a recent jump in financial fragility. Taking all three indicators together, UBS’s aggregate recession probability now sits at 37%, a jump of 11% since the December low of 26% and a level “consistent with pre-recessionary developments.” While the economy was on “okay footing” at the start of the year, the analysts warned that “data deterioration could bring back discussion of recession risks. Odds may be low now, but if the data continues to weaken, the odds, and the narrative in financial markets, might become more worrisome.” John Hill Carl Tom

9 months ago

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SaltyFoghornfromNorCal

@parksidesf.bsky.social

9 months ago

Gimme an R…Gimme an E…Gimme a C…Gimme an E…Gimme an S…Give me another S…Gimme an I…Give me an O…Gimme an N. What does that spell? #USRecession #TACO #WhatabouttheEggs

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9 months ago

Click Subscribe. #Barclays #USRecession #TradeAgreement #ChinaTrade #EconomicNews

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Trump's Damage Has Already Been Done - There's No Going Back The Trade War is Lost Before It Even Begins

9 months ago

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The Hero Call

@theherocall.bsky.social

10 months ago

Trump's Damage Has Already Been Done - There's No Going Back
theherocall.substack.com/p/trumps-dam...
#TradeWar #TrumpEconomy #ManufacturingCrisis #GlobalTradeShift #DeDollarization #USRecession #TariffBacklash #EconomicPolicy #GeopoliticalRisk #AmericaFirstFallout #SupplyChainCrisis #TheHeroCall

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🦋 𝕮𝖍𝖗𝖎𝖘 𝕿𝖍𝖔𝖗𝖓𝖊®

@thorchrs.bsky.social

10 months ago

Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Torsten Sløk Says Probability of Recession has Surged to 90% Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management Torsten Sløk Says Probability of Recession has Surged to 90%

👇🇺🇸 "The probability of a U.S. recession this year has surged to 90%" #USRecession #TrumpTariffs

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Baercity

@baercity.bsky.social

10 months ago

How a top economist sees a US recession materializing by this summer The ripple effects of Trump's tariffs could lead to "empty shelves" by the end of May, Apollo's Torsten Slok said.

The U.S. faces a 90% risk of recession as Trump’s tariffs disrupt trade, lower consumer confidence, and stall investment. Economists warn a downturn may hit by summer.
www.businessinsider.com/recession-ou...
#USRecession #Economy

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Chevron CEO sees no signs of imminent U.S. recession Investing.com -- Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) CEO Mike Wirth said Monday he sees no clear signs of a U.S. recession on the horizon, despite declining oil prices and broader economic uncertainty. In an interview with CNBC, Wirth emphasized that while growth may be slowing, leading indicators do not yet point to outright contraction. Oil prices have fallen below $64 per barrel in recent weeks, raising questions about weakening demand. Wirth attributed the current market softness to a mix of modest demand expectations and faster-than-anticipated supply increases from OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers. Wirth noted that the current pricing environment reflects sentiment more than data, suggesting market expectations may be outpacing actual evidence of economic weakness. Despite this, Chevron is maintaining capital discipline and expects $9–10 billion in incremental free cash flow over the next two years depending on oil prices. Asked whether falling prices might affect Chevron’s capital spending, Wirth said the company’s plans are guided by long-term fundamentals, not short-term market movements. He added that Chevron’s balance sheet remains strong, and the firm reduced its capital expenditures ahead of 2025 as part of an efficiency drive. Wirth said there are signs that growth is softening, but Chevron does not interpret recent market behavior as suggesting an imminent recession. He emphasized the company’s long-cycle investment model, noting that energy projects typically span decades and are not revised based on weekly price swings. Chevron has also been navigating geopolitical challenges, including a recent U.S. order to halt crude sales from Venezuela by May. Wirth said the company is working closely with U.S. officials to understand policy objectives and is focused on maintaining a strategic presence in the country. On U.S. energy policy, Wirth described recent government engagement as constructive and praised the administration’s support for domestic energy infrastructure. He indicated that U.S. natural gas will be critical in supporting sectors such as AI and data centers, and that energy policy currently supports growth, security, and emission reductions. Asked whether global tariff tensions are directly affecting Chevron, Wirth said the energy sector has largely been exempt, though he acknowledged potential spillovers through slower global growth. He called the macroeconomic implications of trade policy more significant than any direct impact on Chevron’s operations or supply chains. Wirth concluded that while political and economic cycles can introduce short-term volatility, Chevron’s strategy remains grounded in long-term investment and supply-demand fundamentals. The company, he noted, has weathered many such cycles in its history and remains positioned for resilience.

10 months ago

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US recession could worsen budget deficit, despite lower interest rates, says Apollo APO hereremove ads Latest comments Install Our AppScan QR code to install app Google Play App Store Blog Mobile Portfolio Widgets About Us Advertise Help & Support Authors Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed. Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website. Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

10 months ago

Click Subscribe #USRecession #BudgetDeficit #InterestRates #EconomicOutlook #FinancialNews

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B.C. Begley

@bcbegley.bsky.social

11 months ago

BlackRock’s Larry Fink says U.S. is very close to a recession YouTube video by B.C. Begley

BlackRock’s Larry Fink says U.S. is very close to a recession
#LarryFink #USRecession #BlackRock
www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tJd...

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11 months ago

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11 months ago

2/3 Fink said one CEO said the airline industry – which cut 2025 forecasts due to falling demand – tends to be a canary in the coal mine for a recession. He also said that he’s concerned about elevated inflation.
#BlackRock #Recession #USRecession #TradeWar #USTariffs #TrumpTariffs

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11 months ago

1/3
🚨US LIKELY IN RECESSION🚨

BlackRock CEO says US 'probably in a recession'
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said at an event this afternoon that most CEOs he talks to “would say we are probably in a recession now”.
#BlackRock #Recession #USRecession

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Carney says chances of US recession has shot up, will hit Canada © Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks about tariffs at a press conference on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, April 3, 2025. REUTERS/Patrick Doyle/File Photo Carney also told a televised news conference he had spoken to Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne on Monday about turmoil in the markets and expressed confidence in both men. 0 Latest comments

11 months ago

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CTrend FX - Algorithmic Trading Solutions

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11 months ago

Goldman Sachs see up to 200bp of Federal Reserve interest over year ahead - here's how Goldman Sachs has adjusted its Fed rate cut outlook, sees a higher risk of deeper easing if recession hits. Earlier: * Goldman Sachs raises US recession probability to 45%, cuts 2025 growth forecast Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to begin a series of interest rate cuts in June—earlier than its previous forecast of July—as part of a precautionary easing cycle. Under its base case, which assumes the U.S. avoids a recession, the Fed would deliver three consecutive 25 basis point cuts, bringing the federal funds rate down to a range of 3.5%–3.75%. However, if the economy does fall into recession, Goldman anticipates a more aggressive policy response, with the Fed slashing rates by approximately 200 basis points over the next year. Factoring in the increased likelihood of a recession, the bank’s weighted forecast now calls for a total of 130 basis points in rate cuts for 2025—up from 105 basis points previously. That outlook is now broadly aligned with current market expectations as of Friday's close. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

| ctrendfx.com | bit.ly/CTrendFX1 #GoldmanSachs #FederalReserve #InterestRates #USRecession #RateCuts

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11 months ago

5/9 JP Morgan raised global recession probability to 60% in a memo titled "There Will Be Blood."

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers called the tariffs "biggest self-inflicted wound we've put on our economy in history."
#RecessionRisk #EconomicWarnings
#USRecession

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