Latest posts tagged with #econ on Bluesky
When economists talk about duration matters within the context of the war it is risk such as this. It’s the quiet crisis that’s slowly evolving that will shortly show up in food prices. #Econ #EconSky
Source: NBC News
www.nbcnews.com/business/con...
My interview via @YahooFinance on War, Oil & the US economy. #Econ #EconSky
uk.finance.yahoo.com/video/long-i...
I think this is a net positive for central bank independence and markets will receive it well.
A look at the balance sheet which is one of Warsh's agenda items should he be appointed Fed Chair. #Econ #EconSky #Fed #FOMC
Kevin Warsh and the Fed: it’s starting to look as if we will not get a Warsh run fed during the first half of the year.
It may not be until 2026, if at all, based on what key decisionmakers in the political authority are signaling. #Fed #FOMC #Econ #EconSky
Throw tariffs on top and watch those core goods prices rise in coming months.
The Fed is not going to cut rates into this in the near term. #Econ #EconSky
Note that core services and core goods costs are simultaneously increasing. Core goods are up 3% at an annualized pace and core PCE is up 3.7% over the past three months.
War results in a draw on scarce resources. It is inherently inflationary. #Econ #EconSky
I would anticipate your favorite ride-sharing firm to do the same as will trucking, transport and delivery firms.
One can expect to see this result in higher inflation via the transportation channel immediately. #Econ #EconSky
Air India, Cathay Pacific, Ecolab, Maersk and UPS over the last 24 hours have all added such surcharges.
I would anticipate your favorite ride-sharing firm to do the same as will trucking, transport and delivery firms. #Econ #EconSky
Jet Fuel and Energy Surcharges: the spike in jet fuel-81% over the past two weeks & 124% since the start of the year- will cause businesses to start passing along costs in terms of energy fuel surcharges which will drive inflation higher. #Econ #EconSky
Consumer Prices Rose in January, Before Iran War Added Price Pressures Economic growth at the end of 2025 was revised downward and consumer prices rose at the start of 2026.. @cosmicmeta.ai #Econ
https://u2m.io/3RPODIz1
We expect the Fed to look through volatility energy costs. However, should those inflation expectations start moving higher the central bank will be reluctant to make the same policy error it made during the pandemic era which featured an energy shock following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. #Econ
The major questions that need to be answered: how will this impact short- and medium-term inflation expectations, will topline energy costs bleed through to core prices and how will the Fed respond if both occur? #Econ #EconSky
We expect that both the topline CPI and PCE price indexes will move to or above 3.5% in coming months due to the combined impact of sticky service prices and rising energy costs. #Econ #EconSky
That will all be exacerbated due to the energy shock, fuel surcharges and rising prices that will arrive at the pump, checkout lines and in utility bills in coming months. Note the super core PCE is standing at 3.514% and that will rise in coming months. #Econ #EconSky
US January PCE Index Takeaway
One can observe turn-of-the-year pricing in service sector pricing, which increased 3.5% which is an apt description of inflation anxieties that underscore what the public identifies as an affordability crisis. #Econ #EconSky
US January PCE Price Index: inflation increases 0.3% in the topline and 0.4% in the core which translates to 2.8% and 3.1% from one year ago. Inflation adjusted spending increased 0.1%. Income & spending on a nominal basis up 0.4%. #Econ #EconSky
As firms adjust their balance sheets with the energy shock they face three choices. Accept thinner margins, pass along the cost downstream and/or reduce headcount. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
Jet fuel costs are up 81% since the start of the war & account for approximately 30% of airline operating costs. #Econ #EconSky
realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minut...
This is a result of the war. It is inappropriate to cut rates at the March meeting and during the first half of the year. #Econ #EconSky
Reality Check: the 2yr US yield is simply floating toward the upper end of the range-3.50% to 3.75%-of the federal funds rate.
Yes, both the topline CPI & PCE are heading towards 3.5% to 4% in coming months. #Econ #EconSky
Fallout From Iran War and Oil Shock Deliver Another Blow to World Economy Countries already walloped by a breakdown of the international trading order, war in Ukraine and chaotic U.S. policymaking are facing potentially lasting... @cosmicmeta.ai #Econ
https://u2m.io/BM7Yfl0Q
If one is looking at the selloff across financial markets today it's about how long will Hormuz remain closed to everything but shipments of Oil to China and supply constraints of oil, natural gas, fertilizers, condensates and other liquids. #Econ #EconSky
Duration & Supply: below is the 7-day total of west to east crossings of the Straits of Hormuz. #Econ #EconSky
Professor Alastair Hall from @manchester.ac.uk will visit the @uolmanschool.bsky.social on 18 March to present his paper: 'Inference based on group-specific moment conditions'
➡️ www.liverpool.ac.uk/economics/ev...
#ECON #Economics
Submit your Paper now!
International Advances in Economic Research (IAER) is accepting submissions.
Policy-relevant papers. Timely review. Global reach.
Submit now: https://iaes.org/iaer-submission-instructions/
#Econ #Academic #Research #Publishing
One of the emerging economic & financial risks is that if the US declares victory and exits the theatre of battle that Hormuz remains closed.
Not see sufficient acknowledgment nor discussion of that risk. #Econ #EconSky
My thoughts on the IEA announcement of a coordinated release of 400 million barrels to mitigate the global energy crisis caused by the war in Iran. The flow is more important than the volume here. #Econ #EconSky
Source: The Real Economy Blog
realeconomy.rsmus.com/does-tapping...
