Latest posts tagged with #likelihood on Bluesky
#statstab #504 Likelihood Ratio Test for Publication Bias
Thoughts: Interesting idea for a problem many of us think is present, but is hard to measure.
#likelihood #publicationbias #QRPs #metascience #metapsychology #metaresearch
freestylerscientist.pl/projects/lik...
#statstab #472 Practical Bayesian Inference in Neuroscience: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying
and Embrace the Distribution
Thoughts: Good intro to bayesian inference.
#bayesian #likelihood #tutorial
www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...
New #J2C Certification:
Dimension reduction via score ratio matching
Ricardo Baptista, Michael Brennan, Youssef Marzouk
https://openreview.net/forum?id=mvbZBaqSXo
#regularization #eigendecompositions #likelihood
#statstab #445 What are credible priors and what are skeptical priors?
Thoughts: An excellent thread on prior elicitation by some of the big names in the field (frequentist and bayesian).
#priors #bayesian #bayes #likelihood #medicine #clinical #debate
discourse.datamethods.org/t/what-are-c...
#statstab #443 Dienes Bayes factor calculator
Thoughts: Dienes presents a different way to compute BFs using the sample data. But, this can be seen as an acceptable double-dipping.
#bayesian #bayesfactor #evidence #likelihood #guide
bencepalfi.shinyapps.io/Dienes_BF_ca...
Multi-objective Bayesian optimization for Likelihood-Free inference in sequential sampling models...
David Chen, Xinwei Li, Eui-Jin Kim, Prateek Bansal, David J Nott
Action editor: Cedric Archambeau
https://openreview.net/forum?id=hQjwDqfSzj
#likelihoods #likelihood #sampling
Very pleased to see @helensc.bsky.social and my methodological paper on changes in #likelihood status for #siblings of children with communication difficulties published 😊 #devlangdis #autism
Thanks to funding from the Heather van der Lely Foundation.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Saturday night activities... Remember when we used to get high and drunk? 🤦♂️🛸👽😂
marcusmoonen.com/uap-likeliho...
#UAP #rationality #likelihood #odds #surprisalbit #economicmotives #disclosure #assumptions #observations #admissions #notinfoilhat
#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #whattheluck #smith #probability #likelihood #cointoss #regression #regressiontothemean #unintuitive #extraordinary
#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #signalandthenoise #silver #signal #noise #earthquakes #magnitude #damage #forecast #prediction #probability #likelihood #tremor
Dimension reduction via score ratio matching
Ricardo Baptista, Michael Brennan, Youssef Marzouk
Action editor: Trevor Campbell
https://openreview.net/forum?id=mvbZBaqSXo
#regularization #eigendecompositions #likelihood
#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #signalandthenoise #silver #bayes #price #bayesian #probability #likelihood #perfection #newton #approximation #truth #science #evidence
#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #misinformationage #o'connor #weatherall #bayes #bayesian #likelihood #probability #calculate #mathematical #certainty #evidence #posterior #logic #reason
#quotes #books #booksky #excerpts #citations #logicofmiracles #mero #kramer #moldován #logic #miracle #miracles #math #distribution #mandelbrot #factor #mathematics #likelihood #statistics #standarddeviation #sigma
The assumption of #multivariate #normality #skewness and #kurtosis is a prerequisite for #maximum #likelihood estimation in #covariance-based #SEM. Here is a #shinyapp to assess this assumption webpower.psychstat.org/models/kurto... and the article link.springer.com/article/10.3...
#statstab #308 A Tutorial on Safe Anytime-Valid Inference [t-test]
Thoughts: Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) are the future for frequentist stats. Since #253 I'm more convinced.
#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence #ttest
osf.io/mdbqe/
“The full p-value function arguably records the full measurement information that a user should be entitled to know! We also note that the p-value function is widely available for any scalar interest parameter and any model-data combination with just moderate regularity, and has available computational procedures. In addition to the overt statistical position, the p-value function also provides easily and accurately many of the familiar types of summary information: a median estimate of the parameter; a one-sided test statistic for a scalar parameter value at any chosen level; the related power function; a lower confidence bound at any level; an upper confidence bound at any level; and confidence intervals with chosen upper and lower confidence limits. The p value reports all the common inference material, but with high accuracy, basic uniqueness, and wide generality. From a scientific perspective, the likelihood function and p-value function provide the basis for scientific judgments by an investigator, and by other investigators who might have interest. It thus replaces a blunt yes or no decision by an opportunity for appropriate informed judgment.
#statstab #301 Likelihood and the p-value Function
Thoughts: Plot idea by Fraser (2019): "the likelihood function and p-value function provide the basis for scientific judgments by an investigator"
#consonancecurve #pvaluefunction #likelihood #plot
doi.org/10.1080/0003...
#statstab #296 The most important theory in statistics
Thoughts: Fisher revolutionised statistics, and the Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) is the crown jewel.
#MLE #Fisher #statistics #stats #probability #likelihood
youtu.be/YevSE6bRhTo
A #likelihood function measured how well a statistical model explained observed data by calculating the probability of seeing that data under different parameter values of the model.
#statstab #253 Anytime-valid inference in N-of-1 trials
Thoughts: Are frequentists ready to talk about evidence? Safe Anytime Valid Inferences (SAVI) seem like the future.
#SafeAnytimeValidInference #SAVI #evalues #likelihood #evidence
arxiv.org/abs/2309.07353
{first of 2025 🥳}
#statstab #251 E-values
Thoughts: These seem like the impossible; they are generalizations of likelihood ratios (i.e., used for composite hypotheses), and can provide evidence for/against a hypothesis.
#evalues #evidence #likelihood
sas.uwaterloo.ca/~wang/files/...
Risk Bounds for Mixture Density Estimation on Compact Domains via the h-Lifted Kullback–Leibler D...
Mark Chiu Chong, Hien Duy Nguyen, TrungTin Nguyen
Action editor: Yair Carmon
https://openreview.net/forum?id=lAKvQO4vHj
#densities #likelihood #divergence
#quotes #books #excerpts #citations #probability #statistics #gaussian #calm #normalcy #predictability #likelihood #miracles #blackswans
Neural Likelihood Approximation for Integer Valued Time Series Data
Luke O'Loughlin, Andrew J. Black, John Maclean
Action editor: Adam Arany
https://openreview.net/forum?id=MMjRBe4oKF
#models #likelihood #stochastic
When you give joy to other people, you get more joy in return. You should give a good thought to the happiness that you can give out
#competence #mistakes #lacked #innate #talent #determined #real #disadvantage #determining #willingness #understands #aspect #loyalty #rewards #likelihood
A Semi-Bayesian Nonparametric Estimator of the Maximum Mean Discrepancy Measure: Applications in ...
Forough Fazeli-Asl, Michael Minyi Zhang, Lizhen Lin
Action editor: Brian Kulis
https://openreview.net/forum?id=lUnlHS1FYT
#nonparametric #generative #likelihood
Preconditioned Neural Posterior Estimation for Likelihood-free Inference
Xiaoyu Wang, Ryan P. Kelly, David J Warne, Christopher Drovandi
Action editor: Andriy Mnih
https://openreview.net/forum?id=vgIBAOkIhY
#posterior #bayesian #likelihood
#statstab #227 Parameterization of Response Distributions in {brms}
Thoughts: If you use #brms and can read mathematical notation (who can't, right?), this page will be useful.
#r #bayes #models #distributions #likelihood #stats
cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
#statstab #224 Interim Analysis in Clinical Trials: The Role of the Likelihood Principle
Thoughts: Frequentist sequential design is tricky; so Bayesian & Likelihoodist approaches to the rescue!
#likelihood #bayesian #sequential #evidence #sample
www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
My research focuses on #population assessment methodology, mainly #fisheries #stockassessment. I focus on integrating diverse data types in a #likelihood framework. I also coordinate the #CAPAM initiative and its workshop series and special issues.
My research is at
www.populationassessment.com
